Member Info for Philsy027

All the major battery manufacturers are moving to sodium batteries for scale and sold state for niche products. Lithium will be needed but not at the prices and nowhere near demand seen today. Sodium is much cheaper, easily available and it scales to much lower future costs than lithium and provides advantages in terms of battery life and operating temperatures. Lithium is a bit of a dead end now imo. If they drag their feet much longer on this they will see the Chinese already moved on to the better chemistry. This is happening this year if you follow CATL and BYDs updates

I have been loading up around this area for last few weeks. Feels like I am the only one judging by the price action but I believe the value will out eventually.

That news won’t be enough to save the current share price imo. tir been running subnet for a long time and current revenue that actually goes to tir is only about 1k per day. Way less than the total revenue figure which is constantly quoted.

Wow. Already sat at 38M MCAP. People who took placing are laughing all the way to the bank. What is the value of assets here currently?

Jeez. You do realise the trial took longer than expected because it performed so much better than expected on the safety side and they struggled to find a MTD?

Sentiment doesn’t turn overnight and Heights are probably still selling. A lot of people are still sceptical of Avacta given their history but I believe they are less than six months away from a massive inflection point. Anyone buying at these levels will do very well indeed imo.

Speed to market? DOX has been standard of care for STS for 50 years for a reason. That market is not disappearing. The as yet new pipeline will be groundbreaking imo. Big question is how will they fund it given no commercial progress yet communicated.

90p a therm is 4.5M a month to IOG. They get effective 40% share. They pay royalty on phase 1 to cal energy. This comes out of their 50% share.

Based on that LTR takeover offer Atlantic would be worth £600M based on current exchange and measured resource.

Atlantic will increase this resource greatly over time and the operating costs is so much lower.

What is a fair value for ALL?

Personally I hope share price stays depressed. I want to buy more here but have to wait another week for funds. The mkt has been given enough signals and if it cannot work it out then so much the better for the rest of us.

Not too bad. I think everyone knew it was going to be Jan before Southwark would be flowing.

Assuming 22mmscf is maintained in both months and they were to sell all of it at the hedged prices (may be more or less) then it would bring IOG revenue of £17M in two months. I would then expect Southwark to double this flow rate in feb/mar so we could be seeing £34M in those months realistically.

Not counting chickens yet however as we have been here before. £51M rev in 4 months would clearly indicate how ludicrously low the current valuation is (which I am well aware is due to op issues).
Values above are for the 40% due to IOG. Total rev would be about 127M but as we know cal energy get 60% share until the 10% royalty hits £20M. That should happen in 2023 if Southwark flows well and then IOG share increases to full 50%.

Undervalued.

Day ahead price back at 270p.

Anyone buying below 50p is printing free money imo providing no further operational curveballs.

It was undervalued at 40p. People that could buy at 8p were given an absolute gift.

Assuming no further bad news.

Taking into account shut down in November.

Using higher OPEX rates.

Projecting forward prices for Rest of year at just 1.7 per therm.

IOG will make at least (imo)

Rev £80M
Gross profit £60M

Using YTD day ahead prices and conservative forward estimates

34.4 mmscf/d as flow rate which was attained H2 to date and near bottom of IOG H2 projections of 30 to 50 for rest of year.

£3.20 per therm (August average was approx £3.80)

This yields figures below for 2022
revenue to IOG of £110M
Net profit of £89M (using higher opex estimate)

So assuming latest projections from IOG leadership can be trusted then IOG is still extremely well placed.

The crux of the matter right now is the mkt do not trust the board and this is reflected in the share price right now.

Next update will be very interesting.

Assuming current flow rate of 20mmscf/d for whole of August (which is very conservative given 34.4 average quoted post H1) we can expect revenue of £10M net to IOG).

July is also about £10M using the 34.4 average and day ahead rates.

So rev YTD is approx £50M. 30M in H1 and £20M in first 2 months of H2 with significantly reduced flow rates.

Obviously high prices are saving IOGs bacon and day ahead has been over £5 last two days.

Whilst the market has been pretty unforgiving with regard to the operational issues in this quarter I think that under the circumstances this maiden revenue and profit in such a short time since original inauguration of the project deserves a good deal of credit.

It is easy to point to gas prices without taking into account that inevitable operational problems always occur when fields are bedding down. I think that it is to management’s credit to trim guidance and in the analyst call they were open and honest about the water issue.

The shares as one might expect have been on a roller coaster this year and before today’s fall have pretty much doubled, given that it appears to be sorting out the wrinkles at the moment I would expect the upward movement to resume.

Not a great update today to say the least.

I can understand why some would have jumped ship but a rational look at the assets, prices and likely outcomes suggests that a 20% drop in value is maybe a little overdone. Time will tell.

The board have not helped themselves by not declaring market sensitive information when they should have done and that combined with the bad news understandably makes a lot of investors nervous.

For what it is worth I am still invested here.

I still feel it is more likely then not that they will have cash in excess of current mkt cap by end of March 23.

Assuming they only do av 40mmscf/d till end of year and no Southwark flows then I would guess about £150M rev for the year.

However, if Southwark comes online they could make £180M in three months if we get pricing anywhere near the forward prices being quoted in winter.

So a lot of upside still remains, some potential downside is here already and either gets worse or improves depending on your take and a fair bit of uncertainty. The market hates uncertainty and has marked IOG down as a result.

Board needs to do a much better job of communicating with the market and their investors.

Just £1.05M in the coffers today for IOG.

Notrac. The 820k below is net to IOG.

Total revenue is £2.056M per day at current flow and day ahead price. IOG only gets 40% share initially as they pay 20% royalty on phase 1 IOG revenues to cal energy (up to max of £91M). Then they will receive full 50%. They will be getting the full 50% share by early next year if future prices are to be believed.