RE: Recent AJ Bell Investor Presentation11 Aug 2020 11:42
To refer back to the video BandofHorses posted yesterday, the comment from Michael Hunt around the 16 or 17 minute mark;
‘This opens up a broad sweep of opportunities, if you will, for the use of our exosomes to target a range of different disease conditions . . .’
Then lists things like brain diseases, cancers, covid-19, diabetes (i.e. some of the biggest imaginable markets to be involved in).
Then lists recent deals, including; Codiak/Sarepta ($72.5m), Evox/Lilly ($20m upfront, $1230m total based on targets), Evox/Takeda ($882m), Codiak/Jazz ($56m upfront, $1076 total). All these are based on collaborations that target similar diseases listed previously.
The lowest one of those deals was worth double our current MCAP. The others range from 25 to 35 times our MCAP.
Olav posed the question in the end of year results about what makes these exosome developments different to ours? He goes on to answer ‘proof of concept data in an animal model’, which we are working ‘feverishly’ on both in house and in collaboration with major pharmas. He describes it as having ‘several shots on goal in the next 6 months’ and if we hit one, then it goes a long way to 'validating the entire exosome platform' (i.e. it won’t just be one deal we get if proof of concept is achieved, it will likely be multiple).
The near-term value is staring us in the face; potential transformational inflection points are lined up across different platforms. We are not a one product company that has everything riding on a distant pipe dream. We have numerous opportunities to re-rate over the coming days, weeks, months and years.
I think it was chester who said a few months ago, that this will be one of those companies that trundles along with a low share price that doesn’t go anywhere, then all of a sudden the value will be realised, and people will look back and say ‘oh, imagine if I’d bought a few shares at that price’. I didn’t think too much of that comment when I read it, as I was disillusioned with stocks, shares and markets at that time. However, after BandofHorses posted the video link yesterday, it inspired me to spend about 6 or 7 hours re-reading every announcement and re-watching every video/presentation from the last year, which has led me to recognise what Chester probably saw a few months ago when he wrote his post.
There are so many opportunities lined up now for near to medium term value generation. It’s not shooting fish in a barrel, but when you hear the CEO and CFO talking as they do, you can sense that they are expecting something big.
Thank you BandofHorses for reigniting my interest in this company, and thank you chester and others for all your valuable contributions and insight. Best of luck.
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