RE: Potential Restructuring Scenario...12 Jan 2021 06:17
Good news on this Dustin guy returning and FRR restructuring so it seems :)
I not so sure of a massive dilution this time as JS discussed. For one I don't think Zaza would be happy to walk away with 10 percent of previous share price worth. I also think it is more tricky to calculate now. Now we have proven up reserves that are massive. My view is the previous share price before delisting took account off that but also took account of the precarious nature of the company, loan debt, lacking in capital to invest in the oil & gas field, arbitration, etc. So the fact that the share price didn't exactly go through the roof suggests to me that the market had already factored in that a lot more money would be needed to be brought on board for FRR to tap into the oil & gas proper. That or someone would have to come in and develop the oil & gas in a big way and they would take a share, such as the Baker Hughes agreement but full on. The other scenario could have been that a SM would buy in or buy out FRR and shareholders would get a payday based in the value of the field minus the clapped out state that FRR were in. Apparently it's been said that Zaza was more in favour of pushing ahead with field development itself as the best way for investors to gain value out off the field.
I would have thought then as such the value of the company at delisting already had taken into account the need to gain further finance, relinquish a cut in the profit from the wells, etc in order to properly tap into the wells. That the company was lacking in funds too much to develop the field to the size needed without it taking forever and investors losing out instead by the field not being utilised in anywhere near as quick a way to tap into the full potential of the field and the massive reserves there within.
So my thought is whatever happens the share value this time will be offset against the value of the massive oil & gas finds and the ability to tap into that with new investment. That is something that was not present back before. I personally think that the best way if possible would be to gain a new investor in the form of an established lender to pay off Hope, YA, etc and then developed the oil & gas field. It was the case that Green Finance was apparently bring lined up for such a situation but Hope/Outrider etc made it too difficult at that time. Odds are I reckon that they may do the same approach again but have a clearer way ahead to do it this time. Hence while I could be wrong I don't think there will be a big dilution of the value of the shares this time.
I noticed talk of this Dustin guy a couple of years or so ago. He apparently really knows his stuff and if he knows that there is real big value there and is confident enough to be brought on as Director then that is supposedly good stuff. Him being there will be a very good signal to investors of the potential in FRR and will give them the confidence to invest. As it now looks that we are at the