Member Info for phil01

As for promising on hus kids lives.... does he have

Not quite sure what you mean by return to dividends? They have never paid dividends before nothing to return to.

Besides I would rather they use any excess funds to develop the business further rather than paying us a few pennies in dividends.

Share price growth will suit me much better than a few pennies per share in dividends. We need to get the business to a critical mass where we become the main player in the space. We have a better cost structure that the other competitors who a bleeding money so we just need to get to critical mass and all else will take care of itself.

If you are in this share with a 1-2 year investment window view, then you have nothing to worry about and will ignore the current malaise on the share price. In fact you will be in the same boat as Tobin who views the current scenario as an opportunity to accumulate.

The bit that is interesting in CB analysis s this:

".....All four companies have extremely limited financial resources, cash reserves and engineering muscle. The route to profitability - and hence survival - will largely depend on decisions made in previous years, and even by previous owners..."

Begs the questions:

1. What is cash burn of each company and how much do each have in the bank?

2. If extra cash is needed what is the route for the necessary cash?

I do not know about the other companies but for SEE which is what I am interested in, since I have some investment here:

My key concerns are:

(a) I do not see a line of sight to break even this Financial year. [1. Aviation deal: we have not even produced a Black label product so talking about money rolling in from sales is fanciful. 2. We have tapped out CAT. 3. Gen 3 seems to be taking a while to take off, the two Bus companies are very low volume so will not make significant dent , ( I would have liked a bigger increase in Guardian connections while we are plugging Gen 3. The growth in connections in the last quarterly update seems to be very minimal).

(b). We have essentially borrowed capital from Magna which if the shares did not get beyond 11p they would like their money back with the accrued interest. This is due next year. [ Magna is a business and not a charitable organisation and won't be able to convince their share holders that they were paying 11p for shares that they could buy at 4p. The alternative if we can't pay is that we beg them to rebase the conversion price for the cash we sourced from them ...result heavy dilution.]

Going back to sleep to see how it plays out. SEE management however needs to do some heavy lifting in the next 12 months else there will be iceberg ahead.

Well, appears that our NOMAD and broker thinks we are going backwards. You should think as a NOMAD they have access more inside information that all that live in this BB.

November 2023 rating by Stifel: Buy target 15p

August 2024 rating by Stifel: Buy with target 13p

That is all that needs to be said, interpret it any which way you choose.

[ And we are about to break even in FY25 which has already started].

CrowdStrike Microsoft IT outage seems to have wiped billons off the stock market.

404x,I am not really sure of the point of your post or you just have too much time on your hand?

Yes they provide EBITDA, which is good to show the cash flow of the business.

They also provides a Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income statement which includes the Gross and Net profit, so you are free to choose whichever one you choose.

Seeing that they provide both measures in their H1 and Full year results, what exactly is your point for posting?

It is not as if they are hiding one of the metrics?

Besides if you do not hold, what does it matter? No one here is a child and they are fit to invest their money as they choose. Maybe you are one of those that have a craving need to be useful hence you are trying to save us from ourselves. That in itself is an admirable quality though hugely annoying when getting an unsolicited financial advice from a stranger on a BB?

If you are interested in investing, you have both metrics EBITDA and Net profit in the financial statement so choose whichever floats your boat.

As you said in your assessment, everything depends on your investment time scale. That is why it is one of the most stupid advises to tell someone to buy or hold a share because it would come good. WILL assumes sometime in the future and you do not Know what time scale is future for the individual that you are advising on a BB.

For a young company like SEE, where everyone is talking about it maturing in the future, it is everyone for themselves based on your investment time scale as well as your financial needs before this future arrives.

If you are in your 20s/30s or something like that or if your investment timescale is over 3 years SEE may be a great share for you. If you are retirement age, maybe not unless you plan to leave it for your kids and grand kids.

If your investment time scale was 3 years and you put money in SEE 3 years ago, then that is probably the worst thing you could have done with your money. It would have been much better if you had put the money in a saving account.

For an investor who to park the money in SEE until it pays off , then your investment time scale will decide for you if you should invest or not. If however you are confident enough to trade the highs and throughs then it does not matter as you will make money whether it is going up or coming down. That however brings its own risk: that you may be out of the share when it shoots up. Also this strategy requires a higher degree of skill than just picking a good company that you think will grow, as well as the disciple to apply stop loss without any emotional attachment. Momentum investors do not have to know anything about the company they are trading.

PM did state that the CAT deal includes royalties brought forward. Hence the money received includes elements of brought forward royalties and licencing element.

Just like the saying you "can't have your cake and eat it", the future royalties from CAT will be less as they have paid some upfront to help us out.

Having had the chance this morning to see PM interview I do think he has some compelling case for acquisition.

My initial concern as to why the share price went down is that by acquiring this we have taken on additional staff with high wages. Previously we reduced our running course be using flexible outsourced staff we can turn on and off as needed. Wages in Germany is not cheap. I feel that in spite of what is being said, the break even will be out by a year., no management will come and say that straight out, but you can work that out from the statement that the acquisition is cash neutral.

My other concern is that this is the first time SEE has acquired another business so there will be integration risk. Used to lead a MADO ,(Mergers, Acquisitions, Divestment and Outsourcing), unit in previous role. Acquisition is not just pay the money and bob is your uncle. The integration of the two businesses is quite a challenge such that most large acquisitive companies have a unit to deal with those.

Even though this acquisition is more about looking to the future and will delay breakeven , I still think that it is a good one to make. Hopefully the integration will be successfully done, if needed they can hire an external consultant to help out.

UpDown,

I am sure others who actually analyse investment instead of gut feeling or emotions would have known why the price reaction was as it is.

Heading into a meeting now. and have a full day.

Later tonight I may present the reason the price went down and not up and the perceived negatives that caused a retraction in price.

If nothing else this announcement puts to bed the usual misconception from the Uber optimists who whenever Valeo wins a contract assumes it is with SEE DMS.

Looking at Asaphus shows that clearly they have their own inhouse DMS and perception technology, while we are busy here counting our chickens every time Valeo wins any contract that contains DMS thereby setting ourselves up for disappointment.

The question is which other DMS company is there that we have not accounted for. Judging by PM's statement the Open RFQ's that we quoted for should have been awarded at least 1 year ago.

SEE has not got it, SEYE has not got it except for the big one they announced last year, CIPIA has not got it. Has this contract been awarded to other suppliers which we are not aware of?

Can any of these RFQ be one of the two automotive programs that Asaphus is working on?

If we believe PM that the deadline date for award has passed then these must have been awarded.

If we are not to believe PM about the deadline date , then that raises a different question about how much we can trust anything that PM says. There is no middle ground, he either know what he is talking about or he has no clue.

As for those that are wondering why the share price fell, they have not been paying attention and not analysing the data before them. Logic suggests that the price will fall as a result of this acquisition. The coming KPI may however be enough to show that the negative impact of this acquisition is not material.

I am expecting a good result, the only question is how good. I definitely trust Stuart to deliver on his sayings, compared to what used to be the case before he took over as the CEO.

Or as Lor _9 says in his/her post, someone knows something and is dumping: which obviously means that Michael Tobin knows nothing and is accumulating at this prices. I know which of those scenario is of more importance to my investment decision.

That is not me trying to say that someone is not selling which they may, since a few years ago I sold a lot of my position in BOOM but that was because I needed the money as I wanted to pay off my mortgage. People have different monetary needs for which they may need to sell shares to raise cash. Consequentially, I think it is more pertinent investment pointer that a member of management, which I would assume knows better what is happening within the company than us outsiders, is buying.

Lewbo18,

Just second hand information as posted on this site. Apparently PM said that he expects the share price to be about 70p by year end.

Maybe someone on this BB can confirm when and provide context?

Are we still on for 70p by end of the year or is the person that wanted the price to slip down to 3p so he can buy more going to get his wish?

Personally can't really see it, (or maybe just wishing), going to 3p but also can't see it hitting the heights again until there is a clear line of sight to profitability. The share has risen as high as it could just base on promises and hot air, now market is waiting on actual deliverables.

I know a lot of people are bent on the communication/RNS. Management will not generate an RNS for the sake of one if there is nothing to communicate.

That is my main worry, no new contracts in spite of the oodles of RFQ on the table as we were told a two years ago. From PM's analysis lasyt year was the drop dead date for companies t make their acquisition decision as apparently it takes 2 years from award of contract to the product being in the latest model of car.

If you want to be generous you will say that he is not very good at predicting the market, as the alternative interpretation does not bear thinking. Now comes the rub: if you acknowledge that he is not good at predicting the market then that brings into question his prediction that he will be cash breakeven this financial year?

Not a fan of acquiring a pod cast company without strong audience, else what is the podcast company bringing except that it is owned by Gary Lineker.

BOOM will be acquired by the sharks because of one of two things two things,

1. our proprietary software that helps make podcast distribution and monetisation more efficient.

2. Due to our audience reach

Gary Lineker's podcast brings none of either, it is a start up and there are plenty of podcast by celebrities being started daily. If Gary wants to monetise his podcasts , he can use us as his distributor or create the podcast under the audioboom umbrella, same as all the other celebrities that starts a podcast.

PM and Martin don't have enough stock to make any bid at whatever price a goer, without the votes from those that have real skin in the game.

Just popped in to see if the old gang are still here. How is the telegram group doing?

Still have drabs here, about £3,000 which is now worth just under £18.

Glad I sold out, at a loss mind you about 20% loss, years ago or I could have been stiffed for well over £130,000.

I jumped on board because I thought that renewables and alternate energy source was a space I need to be in. Did not take me long to decide that the CEO talks a good game but deliverables were slim on the ground. Was hoping to get my money back and in the process stayed longer than I should have else I could have limited my loss to just 5%.

I don't think this is the time to panic. But we also have to accept that our management are not doing a good job rather giving them a get out of jail card. I don't really care if PM is a great fellow or an axe murder, the only thing that links us together is that I am trusting him to look after my hard earned, nothing personal. It is all about the money for me not a judgement on his character as a person.

As for SEE, great product there is no question about.

Potential to make us really good money...YES.

But unfortunately in history, we have a catalogue of terrific products/techs that did not make it because those tasked with commercialising it were inept.

Having a great tech/product is only half the equation, being able to market and commercialise it is where the trick is.

I am sure PM did all he can to ensure that CAT signs this licence renewal this week, June month. That allows the money to be recognised this financial year.

If CAT has waited till next week to sign this deal then none of this money would have been recognised this financial year and the Full year results would have been a disaster. ...we would have been lucky to maintain a share price in the high 3's.

CAT themselves would have seen an opportunity to get a better deal than they would have got as they would be well aware of our need to have the money now to shore up our full year performance.

My hope is that from now on , PM and co. will actually try to deliver on any of their stated deliverables. Hard nosed investors need clear performance and not words before they will join us in this share.

It is all very well telling us that we would get to break even in 2025 Financial year. A cynic may note that he has failed to deliver in almost every one of his promised timelines in that past. The natural question then becomes: on what evidence do anyone really believe that he will meet this latest timeline. His past accuracy rate does not make him a stick-on to pull this one off.

Only clear delivery milestones will bring serious investors flocking into this stock.

As for the ones thinking that share price of 4's is now behind us, they clearly just read what they want to read without digesting the full RNS.

The full RNS says , that we have renewed the licence with CAT for a significant sum, but in spite of taking this bonus extra sum of money into account, we were still not able to make the numbers that we predicted we will make.

In short the underlying business is doing so badly, that even when we add this bonus one -off payment by CAT, we are still behind where we expected to be.

A few issues was raised on why our revenue is less that expected and each of those issues raises questions:

1. .......slower than expected transition from Guardian Generation 2 to Generation 3

Why is the uptake slower? I thought we were told this is a game changer? Also if Guardian Gen 3 takes 2 hrs to install with better performance and OTA update and Guardian Gen 2 takes 8 hrs and not automotive grade , why should there be slower uptake of Gen 3? Unless there is a slower uptake of Guardian all together or Gen 3 is not all that it is cracked up to be and people still prefer Gen2?