Member Info for PerArduaAdAstra

Not certain tbh, duracell. I would have liked to see us close above 36 and so, from a technical perspective, say goodbye to 35p, however, it wasn’t to be. The relatively large volume is intriguing also, so whilst no doubt bond holders would have been selling into the buying pressure today, it remains that the buying interest was there. The good ship Sirius has had a leaky hull occasionally over the years, in which case perhaps some news is in the offing. Can’t see it being anything definitive regarding ST2 just yet, however - and as we all know - the final piece of the TorP jigsaw could fall into place any time. All good stuff though, huh?

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“is due to nothing other than SL finding his answer”
.....
The volume would suggest his alter ego bought back his top slice too.

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra

“Some profit taking going on atm,”
.....
Profit taking certainly - probably by bond holders selling into strength I’d hazard, Chesh.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“I have to endorse what SL has said”
.....
No kidding. In other breaking news... water gets you wet.

per ardua ad astra

“The Company expects to receive the benefit of a HMT guarantee under the UKGS for a component of the Stage 2 Financing.“
.....
Setting aside the belief that any politician will cut the cloth to suit the circumstances - and if need be, the I(FA) Act provides for plenty of scope for that to happen - I’ve always felt that the relevant ‘component’ of any guarantee was always in connection with the ‘transport’ aspect of the project anyway. There are arguments for and against the MTS perhaps being eligible in that regard because by transporting the Poly by conveyor, we will be ensuring it doesn’t travel as freight either by road or rail. And then of course there is the harbour itself. Which, by any definition, must be considered transport infrastructure. For if not, then why as Secretary of State for Transport did it fall to Chris Grayling to approve the Development Consent Order for the Bran Sands Harbour Facilities two years ago? And to underline that position, now that we have recently signed the paperwork that commits us to procure and install the necessary ship loading equipment and systems at Redcar Bulk Terminal, we must surely meet the criteria for “Provision” under the I(PA) act which includes acquisition, design, construction, conversion, improvement, operation and repair of transport infrastructure anyway.

To the best of my understanding in seeking $2bn of the $3bn needed to complete the project we have never sought to have our whole proposition covered by an HMT guarantee; only the relevant aspects of it. The bulk of ST1 monies are being expended at Woodsmith so it would appear entirely logical that any finances underwritten by HMT would be allocated to be spent elsewhere.

Furthermore, and in addition to the advice we will have undoubtedly received from Noel Harwerth, I am sure that when he was with us Sir David Higgins (another infrastructure grandee) would have steered the company down the correct route we should proceed. And whilst Chris Fraser has frequently reiterated our qualification for the it, I find it hard to conceive that Scrimmy would have brought discussions into the open with his ‘essential’ description of an HMT guarantee in his Chairman’s statement if there was any doubt we didn’t qualify.

In short, for my part I’m pretty sure it’s in the bag. And as I have said previously, I’m completely comfortable with where we stand. I guess if everyone else was though nobody would be picking up shares in this exciting project for 35p in the morning.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“There still seems to be a perception amongst posters that we may not qualify for the IPA's UKGS?”
....
Good morning, Myo. Is there many with that perception? All your fine work and the efforts of others certainly help to underline that for my part, like you - and no doubt the overwhelming majority - I’m entirely satisfied with our prequalified status. And since the company seems satisfied also, with Noel Harwerth raising no cause for concern, I would have imagined this issue had been put to bed many moons ago. Blood red or otherwise.

Something I’ve found somewhat curious over coffee and a croissant this fine Saturday morning, however, is that whilst undoubtedly peculiar, is it entirely coincidental that two apparently unconnected ‘long term holders’ should seek to raise serious questions or concerns over long standing situations now we that we are bumping our head at 35p when, seemingly, and despite their long standing nature, these issues didn’t appear to warrant too much concern when the share price was at languishing at 22p?

And secondly - and possibly of a little less relevance - whilst idly thinking I’ve also been wondering whether, unless one is a qualified psychiatrist, doesn’t it also take a certain amount of self regard, or indeed, narcissism, for a person to presume he is in any kind of a position whereby it is possible for him to make an accurate diagnosis of narcissism?

Questions for a weekend, eh? Lol.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

You may want to get someone to check that out for you, Roulette. Frequent incontinence can very often have serious underlying health reasons such as prostrate disease or even neurological deficits.

Incidentally ... a timely example of why I don’t place much stock in the recs of some readers here, is nicely evidenced this morning by the many who likely rec’d Dave for criticising my sarcasm, are also more than likely amongst those who rec’d notso’s sarcasm just after midnight so long as it was directed toward me. Because that’s ok. Apparently. As I say... flaky. Inconsistent. Irrelevant.

Have a good day (and change your knickers)

per ardua ad astra

Many thanks. At 3.5 Mohs polyhalite is certainly pretty tough stuff. And my understanding is that ICL have been working their way through cutter heads at a rate of knots. Hopefully they will have perfected the process by 2021 and we can draw upon their experience. As for the heat and the dust, I anticipate that in a modern mine that will be something considerably more managed and so, rather more bearable than that which you guys and gals have had to work with through your retrofitting.

Many thanks for your thoughts.

per ardua ad astra

Good evening to you also, 100reasons. Plenty of scope to add something of use to this forum. In fact you say you are currently engaged in mining polyhalite. As such, would it be reasonable to surmise that you are working nearby? And if so, is there any light you can shed on the mining situation as you know it for us? I’m sure that like me, there will be many here keen to hear of your firsthand experiences.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

Not trying to be a know it all at all. And I’m not validated by recs here either. Mebbe you’re not a wise as you think?

per ardua ad astra

Good evening, Dave It’s unfortunate that you perceive my remarks as rather harsh and simply sarcastic. Direct offence was not intended otherwise I might have made them directly to you. Having said that, you’ve been using this site for coming up three years now and you were scratching your head at the buys outweighing sells yet prices continuing to fall conundrum way back then too.

Perhaps you’ve noticed other players in the markets are more than happy to relieve you of your wad too — seemingly at your own behest sometimes. In which case, if the what some might consider harsh (yet true nonetheless) words of some faceless entity on the internet bothers you that much, you could do a lot worse than to actually take them to heart. Hopefully you might then feel inclined do something about them. And if that should be the case, here’s a few more for you too Dave: Wise up, mate. Your financial well-being demands it.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“perhaps an indicator that some of these tardes are in fact buys.”
.....
Of course. They ALWAYS are. As a matter of routine. Ultimately the only measure that matters though, is the tape. And if we’re up then, by definition, there cannot have been more sells than buys. It’s hardly rocket science is it?

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra

Erm... we’re up. Perhaps only marginally but, up nonetheless. You got the correct board?

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra

Good morning, bobster. Apologies for the late reply.

Whilst the company (and their brokers) are happy to publish NAV projections, I am reticent to ascribe a predetermined value to the conclusion of ST2 discussions, simply because there are so many variables that we must consider. Of course it is difficult anyway to put a price on a business that is yet to produce anything, however, until the company draws back the veil on the terms of the financing and any element of equity that may be involved (None, hopefully!) we can’t even fix a point to start from. And even then we will have to contend with the the overall market’s response and the caprices of those ever-present bedfellows - fear and greed. All I know is that in recognising my investment is in safe hands, I made the decision years ago to leave my core holding of shares intact at least until the first Poly is loaded on the conveyors at Woodsmith. Of course I do anticipate trading opportunities will present themselves - and hopefully I shall be in a position to exploit them.

I know you've a significant holding here so I hope you will find some encouragement in my belief that our investment couldn’t be in safer hands though. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Best wishes,

per ardua ad astra

Many thanks for your reply, Jesse. Your EQ is recognised and appreciated.

Roulette... you say my remarks let me down and of course you are entitled to your own opinion. However, rest assured, in no way do I share your view that I let myself down at all . Of course you didn’t recognise it or credit me for it at the time, but I feel letting myself down would have been to engage in a pointless slanging match and disturbing the forum at the time when I was first maligned.

For my part, I say your perspicacity - or rather, lack of - would appear to let you down. But there you go... C'est la vie.

per ardua ad astra

“What’s their strategy? Can anyone explain it in simple terms?”
.....
The overwhelming majority of shorts are held by entities that took place in ST1 via the purchase of convertible bonds. And although the value of the convertible bonds lag the share price to a minor extent, it still means that holders of the bonds are effectively long in Sirius. These guys though, are professional money men and they make their money by continually, and consistently, playing the odds at the lowest possible risk to their principal. Their risk appetite simply is not the same as ours.

For their initial investment circa 24p, they have now seen capital growth of ~50% all the while picking up an 8.5% coupon. These investors are hard nosed financial professionals; they are not speculators and simply aren't interested in Sirius’ ‘potential’. All they concern themselves with is how much they can bank with the lowest possible risk. Holding the short positions mitigates the risk they are exposed to with their convertible positions. And is why on Monday morning I said I didn’t think we’d better 35.5p before ST2 completes. One less than bright spark suggested I was talking rubbish. 5 equally not so very bright sparks appeared to concur. Of course none of them are here now affording you an answer to your question. I wonder why?

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra

“I remain very uncomfortable that someone has to repeatedly profess that they are "the " expert...”
.....
If it is ‘expert’ and informed advice and opinion we are looking for, I would hope - nay, expect - that in holding government positions such as as Chair of the Board of UK Export Finance and board member of the Dept. of International Trade, Noel Harwerth is rather uniquely appointed to let us know if we were barking up the wrong tree.

And since she hasn’t...

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“so the inference would be that the news encouraged the traders out......I say traders rather than buyers”
.....
Good morning, Myo.

The way I see things, it wasn’t the news per se that generated the vols we saw on Friday. Rather the news brought out a few buyers which led the price to tick up, and this led holders of CB’s to take positions on the sell side — either as straight sells from previous conversions or as shorts.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“Reiteration: "Expect a rise of at least 5% on Monday."
.....
Can’t see it myself. 1, or possibly 2%, at most imo. 5% is over 35.5p and that ain't gonna transpire before ST2 is done and dusted if you ask me. If we do see over 34p that’d seem a pretty good opportunity to transfer holdings into ISAs for those with a little nerve looking to do it themselves and perhaps pick up a few quid or shares along the way.

Regards,

per ardua ad astra

“Sirius Minerals (SXX) has signed two new long-term off-take agreements for its polyhalite product, bringing peak contracted sales volume to 5.7 million tonnes per year (Mtpa). The new deals, with Chinese customers Eiliseng and YSA, for 1.2Mtpa and 0.8Mtpa respectively, replace 1Mpta of existing demand from Dian Huang and have been struck at what the company has described as “existing agreements”. Vindication of Sirius’ POLY4 potash was a key milestone in our buy call, which we maintain. Buy.”

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2018/07/20/news-tips-keywords-studios-sirius-minerals-bango-more/

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra