Paul Scott on Markets Today From Stockopedia's Small Cap Value Report20 Jul 2021 21:09
Preamble for Tuesday - market conditions
Lots of people have emailed me (Paul), and asked for some market comment.
As a value/GARP investor, I’m not really interested in market fluctuations. I tend to just research things in as much depth as I can, then buy & hold for several years. Some of them work, some don’t. If the results & trading updates disappoint, then I chuck them out. There shouldn’t be any emotion involved at all, and buy prices are best ignored & forgotten, because the market doesn't know or care what we paid for our shares. It’s the occasional multi-year, multi-bagger, that makes the money & mops up all the mistakes.
Where are we now? This is what I see -
Takeover bids - loads of them, especially from overseas, suggesting that the UK market is cheap - which is bullish.
Low broker forecasts - results are mostly ahead of expectations, and there are many forecasts being raised a lot - this is bullish
V-shaped economic recovery, based on the economic data - this is bullish
Companies are generally reporting that they have adapted to covid, stripped out costs, profits are rising - this is bullish.
Set against that -
Momentum arguably carried many share prices too high in the anything & everything rally since Nov 2020
Balance sheet weakness was ignored by some punters - with inevitable consequences when reality comes home to roost & fundraisings are needed (I got caught on Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) in this regard, and there are plenty more banana skins out there - watch out!)
Stretched valuation multiples
Naive punters, new to the market, don’t know how to value anything, so prices are highly volatile
Thin summer markets, with little volume = extreme volatility
Mixed messages from central banks over interest rates
China threatening to nuke Japan
Profit-taking snowballing
Blah blah blah
Take your pick, it’s all nonsense to a certain extent!
Lots of people have emailed me, asking what I’m buying. The truth is, when you’re 100% invested, there’s not much cash on hand to buy anything. Although I have eked out a little cash to buy what I think are terrific bargains: SAGA at 303p. JOUL at 235p. BOO at 275p. As usual, just my personal opinions, and DYOR. We’ve discussed them all at enormous length here, so just search the archive for the bull & bear cases, if you’re interested.
As I always say to people who email me with great concerns about price movements - just try to work out your own strategy. Are you a trader? Or an investor? Most people think they are investors, but are actually traders - flitting in & out of things, trying to time the market, losing confidence when prices fall. Not many people can do that well, consistently, in my experience, and it’s a horrible way to live, being permanently on tenterhooks - who wants to live like that?