Member Info for Penguins

TH2,

that report dates from 2021.

The latest reports identify the areas where storage will first be needed will be near areas of H2 production and industrial use. Even UKOG's presentation doesn't have the Solent Cluster area as a major user even in 2040 - and with no additional wind farms currently planned off the south coast (where currently there's only one off Brighton) green H2 production also looks unlikely for some time in the Solent area.

UKOG is not a carbon capture stock.

There's no carbon capture anywhere near where UKOG has an identified storage site that they have indicated they might apply for revenue support in the first storage allocation round - which is in Dorset, not merseyside or Teeside.

ExxonMobil were planning a carbon capture and storage pipeline for the Solent Cluster area but appear to have abandoned the idea.

Seems my BP top up last week was a good choice, though I'd prefer to lose money on that than see WW3 kick off.

For UKOG a bigger worry is the cost per barrel of water disposal going up.

Ocelot,

UKOG got EY to produce, based on UKOG's projections, a report that had rhe Kimmeridge in the Weald producing 27% of UK Oil demand at some point a few years after the first discoveries were put into production.

That 56% was mostly based on London and S Wales demand with a 'centre of gravity' somewhere along the M4, not Dorset.

Perhaps more important was that the Solent Cluster demand was not that significant relative to London and S Wales, and the single greatest demand appeared to be Yorkshire.

But the storage allocation round is focussed on early 2030's, not 2040.

As I mentioned a week ago the carbon capture projects in Teesside and Cheshire are already in negotiation for support with the government, that ExxonMo il has had a hissy fit and cancelled there's isn't helpful to UKOG

Ocelot,

Of far greater relevance to UKOG is this, also from the BBC:-

'Plans to build a carbon dioxide pipeline on the Isle of Wight have been scrapped'

Madeitup

You post such BS.

Ed can't trample over a Supreme Court decision.

Anyway the 2 parties have said they will sort it out - though by the time it's sorted HH- 1 will probably be unprofitable.

In July UKOG obviously tried increasing oil production - which they did by an average of 12% per day more than June's production. Unfortunately water production increased by 26%.

Not good.

Ian,

SS has shares he had to buy for £12,000 now worth less than £450.

He would have less shares now if he had bought them on the date he was expected to buy his first tranche of £1,000 (2July 2021 = 0.24p), but he delayed months while the SP dropped to around 0.1p in December 2021 - not at all suspicious.

Ocelot,

Posted 'The reason could be he is pretty confident about the Portland strategic partner negotiations.'

This is what SS said about BB, RNS 16/102017:-

'The test results to date are technically significant and highly encouraging and I am confident that the more finely focussed and optimised testing plan can establish commercial viability.'

The finely focussed tests didn't.

and I'm pretty sure that the tests were not encouraging at that point

So ocelot claiming SS is confident about something is not exactly instilling confidence.

Horndean (UKOG 10%) 96bopd with a 44% water cut.

So another ca 10 bopd from there - Star don't list the water as re-injected, but might in one of their other sites.

Avington (UKOG 5%) still zero oil in July

I couldn't find them either, then I found the "old' map based one which I hadn't found for a while - can't guarantee this link will work, though I just entered it into a search bar and it got me to the right 'page'. It's map based and I just zoomed in to HH and then scrolled down on the table to the latest data. Good luck. There might well be a select field entry somewhere but it was late.

https://nstauthority.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=984eeea3b1664049b12c02a28478bdaa

33bopd (163 cu metres)

40bwpd (198 cu metres)

Water cut 55%

Of no interest to the new greenies.

TH2,

It's in Scotland, they'll be lucky if that's connected to the storage likely to win the first H2 Storage Allocation Round in the NE and/or NW of England by the early 2030's. Interesting that the company planning it does large scale battery storage.

Whether salt cavity storage is required in the early 2030's in southern England is down to whether there's hydrogen production and industrial and power demand.

The pathway document repeatedly indicates that the early support for storage and transport will be in areas of H2 production and industrial and power demand, eg :-

'To enable this decarbonisation in the near term, which will support our CB6 and net zero goals, the hydrogen economy will need regional scale networks by the early 2030s to connect onshore salt cavern storage, which is geographically constrained, to production and industrial and power demand in those areas it is most likely to come forward within these timescales.'

....and this theme is repeated in the 'Hydrogen Storage Business Model: market engagement on the first Allocation Round' document.

Unfortunately the Solent area is unlikely to be as large a H2 producer or user as the NE or NW in the early 2030s - so projects in those areas would seem more likely to be chosen for revenue support..

Which just highlights the problem UKEn has with the location of Portland Port vs where there's planned green H2 production.

'Huge green hydrogen project in Scotland' - even further away than those planned in the NE and NW where the wind farms are.

As it's behind the Times paywall I can only read the headline - are UKOG on commission?

Seems that the main argument put forwad by posters and tweeters for UKEn getting revenue support is that the Labour government, apparently flushed with cash. is stupid enough to give it to them - when in fact any cash handed out now isn't for storage infrastructure.

The support planned for H2 storage won't be handed out until a facility is storing H2.

Whilst the government will underwrite the revenue required to pay back development expenditure it is possible storage tariffs won't need to be topped up by the sovereign revenue guarantee, and there's a profit sharing element expected to be included in the contract should the revenue exceed the guaranteed support level.

They also appear to consciously ignore that the government H2 transport and storage pathway document which details that the first H2 storage round is primarily for early 2030s storage near H2 production and consumption by industry.

BTW sharebel a little earlier this pm I could buy 10 million at 0.037p (I didn't) - cheaper than when you wanted to buy earlier. today...or not - maybe they were being kind stopping you buying at a higher price?

Time to change your dealing site?

Sharebel,

I'm sure you're equally concerned about P&Ds when they're in play- certainly your UKOG post count went up a lot during the last one, but they weren't exactly complaining about the obvious manipulation.

Madeitup,

When's this government support coming - even if UKOG somehow get selected there's no cash just revenue support - when there's revenue.

The 2 projects going forward to negotiate the support were planned to be selected in Q1 2025 but the first H2 storage allocation round is running late with the round opening meant to be Q3 after the final rules were published in Q2 (they weren't). UKOG having no debt is only because who would lend any cash to them - they've always needed to raise by 'selling' shares to stay in business and with 5 billion of the little beauties available.e how long will they wait before another raise?

The last raise was to fund surveys and studies for the Portland Port application and now there's another Dorset site and one somewhere in Yorkshie. They have a high salary bill, no significant production, and that has significant water disposal costs, the council starting to badger them to reinstate the BB site which will first require BB-1z to be abandoned - conducting a review of the Turkish venture whichnwill probably be to exit, though there's penalties for not drilling the 5 obligation wells.

The last raise got them about £1,250,000, less fees - how much of that is left after nearly 2 months - the raise before that mostly went on paying off the CLN 'debt'.

Not bothered about the manipulation when it's aided and abetted by posters like yourself- just unhappy when having bought back in the SP slides rather than an immediate rinse and repeat.

Ultimately 'the market' decides what the right price is when the dust settles - perhaps then there's a more measured assessment of what the chances are of UKOG executing it's plan rather than the opinion of posters only intent on getting others to buy.

Just because the government is keen to see net zero by 2050 it doesn't follow that any cash will end up being promised to UKEn now, Portland Port isn't in a 'key' location for early infrastructure.

It's a ca 80km pipeline away from the Solent area which isn't an industrialised or H2 production 'cluster' likely to need siggnifi ant H2 storage in the early 2030s.

The government is already negotiating support with 2 'blue' H2 producers enabled by carbon capture, one in the NE, one in the NW. With multiple offshore windfarms already in existance and planned green H2 production is on the cards for these areas as well.

GBEnergy is concerned with generation - the recent announcement of the award of 131 CFD's were for solar, wind and tidal generation.

What UKOG/UKEn are planning to aply for is an allocation of revenue support in the first H2 Storage Allocation Round which will require funding to be ensured, SGN applying in the H2 Transport Allocation Round to lay the pipeline to the site from the Solent area; and then the combination of the two projects will be ranked against other applicants. Portland Port (or the new Dorset site) needs to be one of the two top ranked projects selected to negotiate for revenue support - which will be designed to repay the development expenditure when a facility is operational.

This aim of the first round is described as:-

'it is important that early T&S infrastructure is located in regions with both suitable geology to develop storage at scale within these timescales and with high potential for hydrogen production and demand to connect to.'

The planned opening of the round was Q3 2024 so it's almost certain that won't be happening to schedule.

Whilst Portland port may be needed some time in the future, if other storage possibilities don't emerge, it doesn't appear to meet the brief for the first H2 storage round

Madeitup,

zero credibility.

Pipeline will be SGN, not RWE - and the only reason it would be laid is to connect to Portland port - which still needs finance which will be conditional on it being one of the chosen 2 storage sites to receive revenue support.

What major industrial users that are likely to use significant H2 in the Solent Cluster apart from ExxonMobil's refinery which already produces and uses / stores / sells the blue H2 it produces. They're talking about a CC pipeline into the English Channel to make it greener - can't find any progress update though.

Don't appear to be any plans to produce green H2 in the Solent Cluster - probably because of the lack of offshore wind power generation.

If there were no other areas with salt already proved to be suitable for gas storage, near imajor industrial centres with significant windfarms to provide excess power for electrolysis and don't need a dedicated ca 80km pipeline to the storage - maybe Potland port would be a dead cert - unfortunately it's pretty obvious there are other areas in the UK better suited for the early 2030s which the first storage round is designed to cater for.

You've got to check what these ramping clowns are up to:-

'Ed Miiliband just had meeting with The Solent Cluster! They don’t waste time! Pushing for accelerated participation. All ducks getting lined up in a UKOG /UKEn row!££££ Bring it on! Future now for shareholders is looking pretty darned bright I’d say! IMHO DYOR GLA'

Don't get too excited - Ed was at the Labour conference - as were the CCSA.

'The Solent Cluster's Stuart Baker, meeting with Ed Miliband at @The_CCSA's stand at @UKLabour@ Conference.'

There were 20 other people (delegates?) in the photo opportunity on the CCSA stand - not just Solent Cluster but the representatives of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association

https://twitter.com/solentcluster/status/1838590117558043057/photo/1

stuart is the guy to the left of the lady in the green dress - on the right in the picture.