Member Info for Penguins

'The analyst consensus target price for UK Oil & Gas (UKOG) shares is 4.40p. Yep, that should be it'

Hilarious, 4.4p would give UKOG a valuation something like three quarters of a billion pounds (assuming UKOG use all their current authority to issue shares, they will) - 'only' nearly half a billion with the current shares in issue 11,140,761,388.

Certain posters don't reality check their ridiculous price predictions.

If there's a reason to not sign up to Stockopedia publishing that consensus of analysts price predictions for UKOG is certainly a good one though I can't imagine a single analyst predicting a well over 100 times rise, let alone several.

Surely it's historical based on the ridiculous predictions being made for BB or HH when the SP was at least a penny years ago.

Otherwise we need to know who these analysts are and avoid, as no site I visited had any price forecast at all based on analysts data and one (because there was no data} predicted a SP of zero in a year's time - I suspect zero will be nearer than 4.4p.

Ocelot,

It isn't - the ExxonMobil carbon capture scheme was, which was cancelled. All Portland port H2 storage would be is somewhere else ExxonMobil could send their blue h2 - though unlike green H2 it isn't going to be produced from excess wind energy production.

I'd assume nothing where UKOG are concerned, so the risk profile is still very high.

Portland (nearly put 'potless') port, even in UKOG's portfolio of H2 proto-storage sites, appears to be third in terms of being located near where gas will be produced and used.

I'd rank them E Yorkshire first despite no further news as regards securing a site as it should be near production of green and blue H2 and industrial use, new Dorset site second as the pipeline to the Solent to connect to the rest of the UK would be shorter, and Portland port with a longer pipeline, though as long as UKOG have done with the last raise what they said they would preparations would be further advanced.

Perhaps this is the reason for UKOG seeking other sites.

Ocelot,

'If it is essential to decarbonising Southern England, then it will go ahead, won't it?'

It is not 'essential'.

The estimated 56% demand (in 2040) is at the the notional D2 H2 'Demand Centre' which is located between London and S Wales. The by far greatest part of that demand is in S Wales and London. Not sure the government uses the term South UK super cluster though - as if it exists in the same sense as the Track#1 H2 Clusters - Humber Tees and Hynet.

S Wales by then (2040) will have the Project Union H2 pipeline (if delivered!) which heads north towards the production areas of the NE and NW. For London the NSTA is already showing the proposed production and storage venture of the Bacton Energ Hub (my previous link) linked to London, and also the connection from the East Coast to London and the south (with a duplicate pipeline terminating in the Solent area.

Of course SGN thinks it's essential - If Portland port is 'delivered' they will get tariffs from H2 Connect to and from Portland port from production to London and possibly elsewhere rather than the H2 Connect supplying the south coast where the predicted demand will be low - including the Solent area.

I don't think the governments preference for the H2 production and consumption in north of England, certainly in the early 2030s, could be plainer except by actually stating it.

Levelling up the red wall epitomised....

Just look at UKOG's '05/07/24: UK Energy Overview' presentation without assuming it bolsters UKOG's position - it doesn't - those red pipelines on slide 8 can't be used until domestic natural gas use is stopped.

https://ukogplc.com/ul/UKEn%20Overview%20Web%20V4%20050724.pdf

If anything the cancelled ExxonMobil carbon capture storage project was 'essential' for decarbonising the Solent area. As for southern England the H2 demand, apart from London (which may well be supplied by the Bacton hub), is modest - and South Wales appears to be catered for by the H2 Project Union pipeline heading north to the hubs in the NW and NE.

If anyone thinks that UKOG has selected a possible site in Dorset and are seeking one in Yorkshire because they expect Portland Port to be a site selected for the first H2 Storage allocation round and are intent on delivering 30% to 60% of UK H2 storage I'd reflect on the distraction sequences UKOG initiates when they realise the current project is no good.

HH> BB> HH-2z > HH> Basur-3> Portland Port> Pinarova> Portland Port> ?Dorset site 2> ?Yorkshire site.

There's also been Arreton, A24, US productiion, geothermal, Markwells Wood.

It's almost as if UKOG move on when they realise there's a problem - but are reluctant to tell their owners - the most significant being HH-1 producing water in production in June 2020 but remaining silent in the interim report - announcing Turkey in July - with the published figures for May when water production began (9% water cut) though in June it reached 24% water cut - with these figures not reported until 3 months later the ramping Turkey bandwagon was well underway. In the 30th June 2020 interim report (post period = April 1 onwards):-'The Horse Hill-1 well (HH-1) continued producing at high rates of over 300 bopd almost continuously during the period. Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval' - yet June's average production was 158bopd + 50bwpd - why does anyone trust what they RNS or report.

End of last sentence should have been 'for the London area or, with the likelihood of production and storage from the Bacton Energy Hub (slide 8) being promoted by Summit (Sumitomo), East Anglia.

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/the-move-to-net-zero/energy-integration/bacton-energy-hub/

Another observation from the 2040 demand slide is that the H2 demand in the Solent area is relatively small - the necessity for the huge storage (requiring an otherwise unnecessary H2 branch to be laid) isn't there just for the Solent Cluster, and in general apart from the London area the same goes for the whole of southern England demand. If anything H2 Connect, without the branch to Portland Port (if the storage is delivered), could supply the Solent area from the north - note that there is no wind farm to the south of Portland.

This is also about 2040 - the first H2 Storage Allocation Round is for production and demand in the early 2030s - I suspect a demand (and production) 'heat' map would be very different for 2030 - 2035.

Like all previous 'potential' projects the key words are 'if delivered' where UKOG are concerned.

I'm puzzled by the 56% figure in 2040 as it seems to be a reference to the D2 demand centre (UKOG UK Energy Overview slide 7) which includes considerable demand from S Wales. In the diagrammatic pipeline slide 7 it's more likely that H2 demand will end up being supplied from the production centres in the north of England (you'll note that the Project Union H2 pipeline heads north, not south), same goes, once a national H2 grid is established, for the London area or, with the likelihood of production and storage from the Bacton Energy Hub (slide 8) being promoted by Summit (Sumitomo) .

Ocelot,

You're grasping at straws.

It doesn't matter how long government has been pestered by UKOG - EPP and/or others appear to have got the ground rules changed - Centrica complained that the necessity to have a TRL (Technology Readiness Level) of 7 for H2 storage meant non salt cavern storage was ruled out. From HSBM Market Engagement:- 'The proposed geological storage site and associated above ground infrastructure must meet a comprehensive minimum TRL of 7.

Regadless of government engagement the main problem which of course ocelot, TH2 and madeitup ignore is that the 2 northern CC clusters will almost certainly dictate where the first storage sites will be and they are Hynet (NW) and East Coast (NE) Clusters.

Not only that but the apparent change in rules and delay could have an impact on south of England storage that meets elegibility criteria - Humbly Grove is operated by Energy Ltd which is controlled by EPUK Investments, a subsidiary of EPH - 'A major operator of natural gas storage capacity in the region of Slovakia, Czech Republic and Austria.' and 'Key strategic gas infrastructure operator & relevant power distributor in Slovakia'. Given such heavy hitting ultimate owners - EPH had 2023 revenues of EUR 24.2 billion - Humbly Grove in southern England could be a competitor to UKOG's Dorset site/s for revenue support.

Oelot,

Thre's one offshore wind farm off the south coast (Brighton). There's plenty off shore the NW and NE, and there were none off the south coast awarded CFDs in the recent '131 generation projects' announcement though there were some offshore the NW and NE.

The criteria that EPP quote as being favourable to storage projects do ot appear to favour UKOG's Portland Port site:-

'Projects that are expected to be ranked highly will:

· connect hydrogen producers with consumers and balance misalignments in energy supply and demand;

· enable low carbon-fuelled flexible power generation to complement intermittent renewable generation;

· provide at pace decarbonisation pathways for unabated gas generation and gas use;

· be capable of repurposing natural gas infrastructure and reducing decommissiong costs; and

· connect new hydrogen production to new demand centres'

At least EPP are updating their investors about the H2 storage allocation round:-

'DESNZ has indicated that it plans to complete the design of the HSBM in 2025 and aims to announce the launch of the first Hydrogen Storage Allocation Round during 2025. Through this process, a shortlist of projects will to be taken to due diligence and negotiations stage, with successful projects announced after approximately 12 months, subject to administrative and legislative arrangements including licensing'

Delayed until 2025, 'winners' announced in 2026 it doesn't look like H2 storage is an early priority of government.

I wonder if ocelot realises that EPP's invitation to participate in the first H2 storage allocation round is bad news as it shows that the DESNZ is including depleted fields which were previously excluded - presumably part of the reason for delay redesigning the application criteria.

Ocelot,

still deluded - forgotten(?) all the previous projects that were planned, going to be drilled some claimed to be transformational or of national importance, with RNS or tweets repeated and promoted relentlessly by ocelot in the face of posts explaining why they would not be successful, that failed or never happened and were just not mentioned again.

It's UKOG's speciality - hype followed by silence - for example UKOG has never mentioned HH production levels since June 2020 - 'The Horse Hill-1 well (HH-1) continued producing at high rates of over 300 bopd almost continuously during the period. Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval' but the daily average in April (post period) was 243bopd - so must have been regularly shut in, and has never mentioned water production.

Still along those lines '£1bn project, Final Investment Decision looked for in 2026/27.'

Of course, but does anyone believe that UKOG will develop 2 H2 storage sites in Dorset (or even one apart from ocelot) - and as for Yorkshire the last mention was they were still trying to secure a site for an application in the second H2 storage round

More unbelievable is that these three sites would, depending on whose forecast to believe, contain 30 to 60% of UK required storage in 2050 - it's bonkers.

'The "new Labour government ... to date seem motivated and committed to making hydrogen and its storage a fundamental part of Britain's renewable superpower ambition." (RNS of 05/08)

UKOG may claim that but the first hydrogen storage allocation round opening is delayed according to the schedule released December 2023, whilst the CFD AR6 were announced in early September (solar, wind and tidal electricty generation) and the carbon capture project awards supporting H2 production were announced early October.

In the meantime without final T&Cs released ahead of the round opening would anyone commit finance, SGN commit to laying the pipeline or partner commit to joining UKOG.

As I keep on pointing out it's:-

'in the north of England'

and in this case the NW.... the 60 mile “Hynet” underground pipeline will run from a hydrogen production plant near Ellesmere Port out into Cheshire to nearby factories and power plants - including Heineken, Kraft Heinz, Tata Chemicals, cement maker Heidelberg Materials and glass maker Pilkington.

Note that Cheshire already has sites with natural gas storage in salt caverns, plus EPP are planning to convert an offshore gas field to H2 storage off the coast of Lancashire where there are wind farms in existance, and more planned to provide excess electricity for electrolysis.

Maybe ocelot needs to reflect on the recent generation round where no offshore wind farm projects were awarded support off the south coast of the UK out of 6, or the December 2023 HAR1 awards for H2 generation were 2 in the NW and 2 in the NE (amongst other areas), or the government support of £21.7bn for carbon capture projects in the NE and NW and of course RWE who have green H2 production projects elsewhere in the UK but are in the Solent Cluster to 'support' the other member companies (like in their UKOG LOS ).

Perhaps ocelot should also consider this:-

'We have received a number of reports that Green Investment Group’s name is being used to fraudulently solicit payments from investors. If you’ve been affected please contact our Global Security team by emailing scams@macquarie.com.'

Don't think anywhere GIG mention H2 storage.

Not sure if ocelot is ramping up the right tree.

Desperate posting sontinues......

The allocation in the Labour manifesto is quite specific:-

'£1.8 billion to upgrade ports and build supply chains across the UK

£1.5 billion to new gigafactories so our automotive industry leads the world

£2.5 billion to rebuild our steel industry

£1 billion to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture

£500 million to support the manufacturing of green hydrogen.'

Which totals £7.3billion for green hydrogen, carbon capture, ports, gigafactories and green steel (what's been cut?) - but no mention of hydrogen storage.

'Strange happening 10 seconds before closed 54 buys at full ask ?'

hahahahaha

From trades listed on A D V F N (does madeitup depend on LSE trades listings!)

The 18 trades during trading hours were the strange happening....

The 117 trades timed as between 16:35:00 and 16:35:03 totalled just over £2,200, the 18 trades before that totalled just over £9,500.

Funny how some posters only tell half the story - lots of trades yes, value, next to nothing.

Thet're grasping at straws.

There were a total of 106 buys at £0.00037 - an average of under £20 per trade - and 11 sells at £0.00036 - an average of under £17 per trade.

As for Friday being an up day - just did a quick analysis over the last year (but didn't take account of Bank Holidays) and 20 times the SP closed higher on Friday, but 21 times including today down.

The other worry is holding over the weekend - Monday closed up 9 times and down 27 times. Of course closing prices don't tell the whole story of 'action' during the day but it's interesting that holding over the weekend doesn't look that smart.

Ocelot still desperately bigging up a couple of LOS because despite no committment they are by 'major industry players'.

Judging by this in the GM notice 'The Company will also seek further Letters of Support' they ask for these letters - maybe even pester - and consider this engagement with strategic partners'.

'The funds will also permit the Company to fully prepare and engage with further prospective strategic partners to seek, as a minimum, Letters of Support'.

Ocelot,

Desperate trying to pretend something's happening but repeating the same old BS, one LOS from the end of May, the other from early August.

Summit are in East Anglia and planning to produce green H2 and H2 supported by carbon capture (and in their ifrastructure diagram using offshore H2 storage) so without a national pipeline network they aren't going to be storing anything in Portland port - and pretty clear that's what this means - 'with a view to SEEL or Sumitomo investing in UKEn’s future hydrogen storage project' - and it's committed finance for Portland port UKOG need.

https://www.summit-evolution.com/press/bacton-hydrogen-hub-joint-development-agreement-signed

As for RWE, they may be a member of the Solent Cluster but they aren't doing anything but 'helping', this is from their H2 activity web page:-

'RWE joined The Solent Cluster to provide support via its expertise and presence.......' - the LOS from RWE essentially a specific version of that 'mission'.

https://uk.rwe.com/innovation/hydrogen/

It's worth a look just to see that RWE are active elsewhere - probably where they believe that government support will be forthcoming:-

Pembroke - green H2 production

Teesside - green H2 production x 2

Grangemouth - green H2 production

Harwich - green H2 production

Didcot - investigative green H2 production

Quite a contrast to Solent Cluster - providing support

Ocelot still pumping Ben Clube's interview as if what Nen's talking about will be significant for UKOG

'The government's planned 3-fold expansion of wind generating capacity "needs storage solutions"

Says Ben Clube of EPP - A company planning to repurpose a gas field offshore Lancashire - where there are wind farms not only already in existence, but also 2 of the recently awarded contracts by government for planned offshore wind farms - also recently government backed carbon capture supporting blue H2 production in the NW.

Of course EPP thinks storage solutions are needed - but with one wind farm offshore Brighton and no others planned off the south coast and no national H2 grid Portland Port looks to be in the wrong place, even to get to the Solent Cluster needs a ca 80km pipeline.

This excerpt from 'The Hydrogen Transport and Storage Pathway document (Chapter 3: Near Term Needs Case, Building Emerging Regional Networks in Areas of Highest Potential' illustrates the challenge UKOG has in the assessment process:-

'To enable this decarbonisation in the near term, which will support our CB6 and net zero goals, the hydrogen economy will need regional scale networks by the early 2030s to connect onshore salt cavern storage, which is geographically constrained, to production and industrial and power demand in those areas it is most likely to come forward within these timescales.'

Seems ocelot hasn't realised that the days with huge number of trades when there's no pump underway is because this hundredths of a penny share attracts dozens of trades often in the pennies .

So of 249 trades so far today I made it about 20 that weren't in cohorts of the same time.

......and conversion of a field that already has gas infrastructure costs a lot less than creating caverns and needs a ca 80km pipeline.

...and investors will see that there's likely to be an early use with production and consumption.

If only ocelot would explain the relevance of early storage at Portland port vs the NW (and NE) of England.

'The government's planned 3-fold expansion of wind generating capacity "needs storage solutions"

Says Ben Clube of EPP - A company planning to repurpose a gas field offshore Lancashire - where there are wind farms not only already in existence, but also 2 of the recently awarded contracts by government for planned offshore wind farms - also recently government backed carbon capture supporting blue H2 production in the NW. Of course he thinks storage solutions are needed - but with one wind farm offshore Brighton and no others planned off the south coast and no national H2 grid Portland Port looks to be in the wrong place, even to get to the Solent Cluster needs a ca 80km pipeline.

Government Revenue Support if they follow the planned process will be negotiated next year by the two projects that are ranked highest with their associated pipeline application.

Even being eligible to submit an application may be a stretch for UKOG where LOS are nice to have but an SGN pipeline committment and finance committment are a must.

Already the process is delayed, the final t&Cs were meant to be published Q2 and the process start Q3 - so whilst H2 production through carbon capture, solar, wind and even tidal are being dealt with H2 storage appears to be a later need and probably depends on progress seen in the already awarded projects.

If they return to schedule the expectation is contracts signed Q4 2025, quite a long way away.

Unfortunately there's many here who didn't buy at 0.015p or lower and bought during the pump. Some are already underwater, others will be with further drops.

So Eds said a lot about hydrogen, and again no details - and a link to an out of date (2021) government document that's superceded by last December's first hydrogen storage allocation round market engagement paper which is far more detailed, and has been frequently quoted in my posts where it's quite clear that priority is likely to be the NE and NW of England, and the recent carbon capture project awards have followed that pattern.