Member Info for Penguins

Sorry posted before even started - realised what I was about to type would make it seem I was saying Ritson was like Trump - not the mining engineer.

Ritson,

a guy who knows what he's talking about, not a mining engineer who just spouts what he thinks - not necessarily whats true - reminds me of

So the Kimmeridge 'flowing' near Bognor Regis was Lidsey.

This was perforated and oil flowed, but amounts etc have not been stated, so I'd be cautious as to how significant this is.

More significant to me is that UKOG allowed the licence immediately south of the BB licence area to lapse, this licence PEDL 233 was to the north of Lidsey.

So what in yesterday's RNS was significant for the KLs - nothing at all.

and as far as the Portland is concerned not much more than was known before, from the highlights.

Dry oil and gas was produced on the previous test, no surprise

Rates were better over short periods, but that was expected (bigger pump) - but is 30,000 cu ft of gas per day significant. It might be more of a nuisance in that they will have to install a small gas to wire plant. Godley Bridge - 1 tested at rates of 1.44 MMscf/d (1,440,000 cu ft per day) in 1982 from the uppermost zone of the Portland Sandstone (about 50 times HH associated gas rate), they still haven't developed it. (figures from IGas CPR).

Optimised flows mean just that - the best they can get - means little in terms of production but hopefully will pump up the SP.

Tanker left, but we knew that already

We don't know if it was expected that the 2 year shut in of the Portland was expected to be a problem, done correctly it shouldn't have been.

What we do know is that at BB leaving certain products for a few months in the limestone reservoir possibly impeded production.

The choke business is also odd in that is the choke quoted actually restricting flow. The rate of 352bopd quoted as being through the 20/64 choke was being pumped so isn't the pump supplying the pressure at the surface, not the reservoir?

So is it really a surprise that the SP hasn't gone to 10p if you look at the RNS without rosy specs.

It's certainly not national news that a 30mmbbls STOIIP field has just tested at up to 353bopd, more or less as expected (ie more than 323 bopd), and flowed 463bbls of oil over 4 days.

Last night I posted that the Portland and KLs had about 50% water saturation. This is a continuation of that thread, apologies to those that just want to talk about the SP. You can skip this, it's boring.

Free seemed to think I was making it up, and it seems quite a few posters then thought that just because HH is currently producing dry oil that I was wrong, even though the data comes from Xodus and Nutech.

So what is water saturation. In a reservoir there is usually a percentage of water throughout the pay. If there is a water leg this wil rise probably to 100% water, there is no water leg in the Kimmeridge. In the Portland Xodus stated in the CPR :-

'The well test was conducted over the entire Portland interval of 100ft. In this zone the water saturation is relatively constant between 40 and 60%.'

So throughout the 100ft of Portland there's a high water saturation. They also state:-

'During the HH-1 well test no water was produced from the Portland suggesting that although the water saturation may be above what is normally considered for an economic pay cut off, that water is immobile and is not produced with the oil.'

So the water is there but not being produced. Not me saying it Xodus (page 35 of the CPR).

The estimation of water saturation (SW) can be made from the resistivity log as the salty water in a reservoir is conductive and oil is not, by knowing the saltiness of the water and other parameters an estimate of water saturation can be made. In the KLs it is about 50%.

So in the case of the Portland and KLs what could be happening.

We are told that in the KLs the fractures are filled with oil. But the rock matrix (the rock surrounding the fractures) has porosity but hardly any permeability, unlike a sponge which has good porosity and permeability which means fluid can flow through it. In the KLs fluid can't flow through the actual rock as the permeabilty is so poor so its stuck there until the pressure surrounding it drops (in the fractures as oil is produced) and eventually the fluid within the rock matrix which is probably both oil and water, can flow

Although not suggested anywhere in RNS or the CPR this to me seems a reasonable explanation of why these initial flows are dry oil.

The Portland may be more complex but hopefully the CPR after the ewt will be more informative as to what the experts think with all the data at their disposal. Xodus seem to have more than one theory, but don't give any of them.

Just seen free's twitter feed and I am sort of puzzled why he says:-

' #UKOG LSE poster and serial deramper Penguins. SS says Portland is producing sweet 36 api Dry Oil. Which bit of the word dry don't you understand Pingo? Dry means zero zilch no Feking water lol... Jeeze. Knows FA!! VIVA!'

As I posted this about the Portland :-

'One positive may be that the Portland and KLs at HH all produce dry oil (though they all have water saturations of about 50%).'

Now I guess free doesn't understand what water saturation is or where I got the information that it was about 50%.

For the Portland the Xodus report says: 'The water saturation was determined for the pay zones giving averages of 56.4% and 46% with an overall range of 39% to 70%.' Page 35 of the CPR.

For the KLs the water saturation is shown in the Nutech report, April 2015, page 2, Table 2, SW Pay column (SW is the water saturation)

Whether frèe likes it or not there is water there, not me saying it but Xodus and Nutech

Pesky tanks

Good ol' Pboo (@wealdoilers) to the rescue, thought I'd seen a picture of one

https://twitter.com/WealdOilers/status/1011248005628952576

It has a label claiming it's a 55,000 litre tank - and Pboo says so.

55000 litre tank = 345bbls.

Can't be sure its one of those in the bund as in the location it's pictured whatever it was used for it will have been moved, but there are 4 similar sized big green tanks in the drone shot of the site so a god chance that's it size.

As for the smaller tanks there's definitely 5 - the pictures don't lie.

There's about 2000bbls of storage in the bunded area, may be 1700, not sure if the big green tanks are 350 or 500bbls each, but you don't wait until your tanks are full to empty them.

Plenty of space for quite a few days production even so, depending on flow rate.

Pboo reckoned 'some' full (2 or more?) + 120bbls this am. If ut's the 180/200bbl tanks min of about 500bbls.

First RNS will be very interesting. Let's hope for a bit more information if they have been flowing since Sunday.

Can't see them going into the weekend without a tanker taking some away (fingers crossed!).

Oh dear,

that's what we were told at BB, the site isn't monitored 24/7 so they might have missed a tanker - but HGVs do have a restriction. From the Transport Management officers report :- within the hours 0800 to 1830 Monday to Friday, and between 0900 to 1300 on a Saturday. No HGV movements are proposed outside these hours

We were also told:

smoke from the heater
haze above the flare stack
tanks filling with oil - with a UKOG tweeted picture 'proving' the tanks had oil in them
pump pumping oil
SS at the site, about to release a mother of an RNS (well I suppose they did, just the wrong sort of mpther)

I do actually think HH will be different in that oil should flow but an RNS would be better 'proof' that those stock (not oil) tanks were full of oil. Everything produced from the well (except gas) ends up in at least one of them, even water.

JTTALV,

you do realise they have perforated and tested the Kimmeridge at Lidsey.

The production you're talking about came from the Great Oolite.

redheadedrager,

The discussion was about the value of the Portland.

Only the Portland.

If you want to discuss the Kimmeridge consider that you have to 'contact' all the OIP to even start considering a rate of recovery of that OIP. The Nutech report gives a recovery of 3 to 8% of contacted oil in the Bakken with exceptionally 15%.

Of the billions of barrels of oil in the Kimmeridge and other layers. About 15% is in the KL3 and KL4 (18BBO). So recovery across 1261 sq miles(?) at say 6% gives about 1.1 billion barrels if the oil will flow economically everywhere and a lot of other caveats. This equals less than 1 million barrels recoverable per sq mile from 2 levels. Lots of sites (long horizontals need simpler geology) and lots of wells to recover.

UKOG has just allowed the licence it had within it's area of interest to the south of BB, PEDL 233, to lapse so maybe there were some learnings from BB they haven't mentioned.

Understand that UKOG are dealing with a reservoir that may have possible analogues, but has never been flowed for longer than a few hours at one location. Extrapolating this across a whole basin before even one extended flow test is unrealistic..

4 wells appear to have tested at least one layer in the Kimmeridge, albeit in vertical or deviated, wells - 3 have failed to flow economically (I'm assuming Lidsey didn't as if it did I suspect Angus might have mentioned it). So will it really work elsewhere - is HH unique, but maybe what's special about it exists elsewhere but not everywhere.

Basically it's highly risky - hence the SP but I'm not sure about your rationale for investing (if you want to apply a long term value that's your prerogative) - but this is a gamble, investing rules don't apply at this point.

Whether I believe this will ever be worth 10p is unimportant, it's what others believe that will drive the SP.

I suppose the question I would ask all the posters spending all day looking at the share price and delighting in it's rise - you obviously aren't thinking of buying...…… but you want others to do so but that's why a lot of posters are here.

If a poster wants to spend all day pumping up the price by saying it will be x next week, month, year etc or other meaningless nonsense I don't care. But I do hate complete misunderstanding (or worse deliberate misleading) and will occasionally jump in.

One last thing make sure the positives in RNS are actually important. Is the fact that the Kimmeridge is more mature somewhere else important when the fractures are filled with oil at BB (or even Lidsey)?

Apologies for this rather long winded reply, but you did ask - do you think I would be monitoring the board and SP to understand the mood etc if I didn't hold?

Unlike a horse race you don't have to wait to see if your horse wins or loses.

Bridges,

The CPR has 500,000 bbls net contingent resources to UKOG (1.5million gross).

Even if these were proven reserves (1P), and the value of reserves in the ground equalled today's OP (they don't) that would give a value of about $36million to UKOG.

If all these resources become reserves (which they might not) following this ewt the book and/or sale value will be considerably less than today's OP-OPEX.

There is the possibility (but would have to be confirmed as practicable) of recovering an additional 8 to 14% of STOIIP through a waterflood. An additional 11% would be about another 1mmbbls to UKOG. If somehow this was priced as being worth the OP this would equal 108 million dollars, £77mm.

Until a full economics run is performed following the CPR an accurate value for the Portland won't be known, but it will be considerably less than the current market capitalisation.

I fail to see how you could use these numbers in the Xodus CPR to create a value multiple times the current market cap (about £131mm).

A line disappeared should have read:

28 seconds before the spread was 2.5 to 2.55, and six seconds after the spread was 2.5 to 2.55

Yet for the few seconds they listed that 2.49p trade the spread was 2.45 to 2.5.

Suspension of belief methinks....

And moments later a sell at exactly the same price when the sum of the 2 trades was exactly 20million.

17.332,001 + 2,667,999

Has YAs fingerprints all over it.

Really,

Yet for the few seconds they listed that 2.49p trade the spread was 2.45 to 2.5.

Suspension of belief methinks....

And moments later a sell at exactly the same price whee the sum of the 2 trades was exactly 20million.

17.332,001 + 2,667,999

Has YAs fingerprints all over it.

Redheadedrager,

Just read your earlier post again as free has screen grabbed it and tweeted it:

To save you having to look here's what he tweeted (I do find his ranting's about me worth repeating - mainly because like on many subjects he's so wrong, and actually he's not your friend either) and your post:

'#UKOG LSE Poster Penguins. No chance this snake will allways put UKOG Down. Trust me he ain't you're friend. Learn his way and learn fast!'

Redheadedrager's post:

@Penguins - ha ha ha and you thought we wouldn’t spot the obvious mistake . . . . PRIM sold 5% of their stake to SOLO on 28th February 2018 under a SPA that settled on 9th March 2018. Just keeping you honest ;-) Red

You thought I wouldn't spot your deliberate mistake (and I wouldn't have done except for free) - Prim actually sold a 5% stake in HHDL, not 5% of their stake.

Just keeping you honest......

Apologies,

should have qualified it with 'as at December 2017'.

No interest in Solo but well spotted.

I don't mind apologising when I get something wrong, none of us are perfect - I just wish others would do the same.

HHDL - source of information Companies House Beta

Doriemus 10%
Primorus 10%
Solo 10%
Alba 18.1%
UKOG 49.9%
Gunsynd 2%

Regency and Angus sold their shares

Agree boyo,

But bit surprising they wouldn't trust their gauges, but just one thought pboo, are you sure they weren't taking a sample of whatever was in the tank?

Yes I know,

It's disgusting how they behaved.

I was going to email UKOG about them tweeting a picture of BB with a half empty oil sample bottle in the forground which a lot of folk thought was HH - even free who seemed to have forgotten that behind the stock tanks was an earth bank so the boundary fence couldn't be seen.

Luckily pboo remembered what the site looks like.

Free money,

Whilst I agree that HH should be different at BB the watchers were constantly implying that the pump was pumping oil and it was on the well for long periods.

They also claimed the flare stack and oil heater were working, but the well produced only limited amounts of oil.

Having less waste tankers is hardly a glowing endorsement.

Looked actually like they were setting up the bariers on top of the tanks (HSE?), they have gauges on the side of the tanks to tell how full they are.

Noocyt,, and all those that post about the buys vs sells,

Let me explain.

The buys vs sells as listed are not to be relied om.

The spread usually indicates the limits of price, but sells and buys may be anywhere between the two such that they can both be above or below the mid price.

As the mid price is how the automated buy and sell is decided, above the mid price is a buy and below it a sell, and bang on the mid price becomes undecided.

This morning for quite some time buys and sells were both above the mid price. The 2 x 5,000,000 trades were probably a rollover where the price was chosen to appear as a sell.

Devious but one of the 'weapons in the MMS arsenal to deceive.

Often the price will change and a large trade that would have been classified one way seconds before become the opposite.

For the same reason after trading hours reported trades are often classified wrongly.

If in reality there were millions more buys than sells the pre would rise, and vice versa.

So you need to look at the detail and trends of the prices of current trades and decide for yourself which way the price may go, next.

Deciding which way the market is likely to go based on the buys vs sells as reported is not wise.