Member Info for Penguins

How sweet, my very own troll.

Obviously not worried about UKOG silence of nearly 9 months on production rates from HH-1, what could possibly go wrong.

Pity SS couldn't bring himself to mention for such an important site central to the governments strategy how many indigenous barrels of oil HH is, was and will be producing to save the UK economy on a daily basis.

Ie - what's the plan 2 months on from a major workover to 'optimise' Portland production, and nearly six months deciding what to do with HH-2z?

Wizard,

Stop just making stuff up, or is it you don't understand what you're posting about. The 2.6mmbbls was quoted for Arreton.

Why do you say the CPR for Arreton is out of date? Is there a new one. Has a well been drilled to establish different inputs? Have UKOG made any statement that they no longer consider the other levels or prospects valid targets? That the prospect that's multiples of all the Arreton structures is not there - yet they choose to only mention the 2.6mmbbls for Arreton?

The 2.6mmbbls is the gross 2C, contingent resources for Arreton Main Portland in the CPR. So not low and not net and therefore certainly not out of date as they are quoting it. Any more deflection?

you keep telling me to email UKOG. I don't need to - I'm well aware why they've downplayed the Weald and IOW in the Turkish presentation - they've made no mistakes, just being selective.

Can't wait for the rig to turn up soon to drill HH-3 to 6 now they're free of the threat of having the pp revoked, and apparently that's also the reason they decided to keep HH-1 shut in to avoid cashflow from HH while the pp was in full force, or have they been producing since the workover despite RNSing the well was shut in for a pbu, or have they managed to get a few juicy initial rates to tease the punters with in an RNS (be ready for the spike), or will UKOG announce the Turkish drill is 'imminent' .............and then mention what's happening at HH?

so much to look forward to - with UKOG's record of Xmas surprises, 2017 BB abysmal flows, 2019 HH-2z water ingress - perhaps not?

Merry Xmas.

I suggest you don't use drill or drop for your information on UKOG CPRs. The CPR is far more specific than a representation of the proposed drills superimposed on a 3 dimensional cutaway of the structure. btw the Portland is identified - it's the layer with the horizontal in it.

It's not my '2.6' as you put it - it's UKOGs on a slide in the new Turkish applications presentation you have referenced previously where UKOG for some reason are downplaying the Weald and the IOW.

'but IMO. UKOG are far far ahead with there plans' - they ought to be, they've spent over £70mm and it has been 6 years since drilling HH-1. With most of this year 'thinking time'. All they need to do now is let their owners know about their plans (including apparently HH-2y - though where they'll put it, and pay for it, will be interesting).

Wizard,

You're entirely missing the point. UKOG have put 2.6mmbbls as some sort of recoverable from Arreton in the Turkey presentation.

But that's not how it's been 'sold' until now........and yes it is just the contingent resource in the Portland in Arreton Main - as I said in my post a while ago - and in tonights 'just the Portland in Arreton Main?'.

Otherwise you're rambling on about the Kimmeridge - in fact you've probably mentioned the Kimmeridge in just that post more times than UKOG have in RNS in the last 6 months.

'The information we have does not state resources or the depth of each layer for the Portland or Kimmeridge.'

But there's already 2 wells right beside the intended target location for Arreton 3. Perhaps you should look at the CPR which has maps, OWCs so depth for Portland and other targets all available - and resources for several layers including the Portland.

As for the Kimmeridge Xodus don't touch it and UKOG have said even less about it on IOW than HH.

Santa,

we'll see.

Wizard,

I don't know what you were expecting, this is what UKOG RNS 20/9/18 said (and CPR for the first paragraph) - not necessarily what I'm expecting.

'The Isle of Wight PEDL331 Arreton licence is, in the Company's view, one of UKOG's premier appraisal stage assets, which, as per the Company's 2018 Competent Person's Report ("CPR"), contains 14.9 million barrels ("mmbbl") of UKOG net P50 case recoverable Contingent Resources within the Arreton oil discovery, plus a further 10 mmbbl of net recoverable Prospective Resources in the geological look-alike Arreton South and North prospects......................

...............UKOG's subsurface team have also recently identified a further large undrilled anticlinal structure, the Arreton East Prospect, another look-alike to the Arreton discovery and lying further to the east along the same geological trend. Initial mapping shows this feature to be many times larger than both the Arreton oil discovery and Arreton South prospect combined. Further work and potential recoverable resources will be reported in due course.'

So from 24.9mmbbls + many times 24.9mmbbls = ? 100mmbbls now 2.6mmbbls according to the latest Turkey presentation (just the Portland in Arreton Main?), losing 97% even of potential recoverable resources is quite a feat.

Wizard,

'I remember SS in his interview of January 2019 that he he would not mind going to the IOW before Dunsfold.'

That must have been before they revised the resources at Arreton - though apart from slide 3 in the Turkish licence application they haven't mentioned it.
Loxley 7.1mmboe
Arreton 2.6mmbbls

Though these are unrisked.

It will be one year on 23rd December since UKOG revealed their Xmas present last year, that HH-2z had water production issues. Nearly 6 months since UKOG admitted the intervention hadn't worked and that the well was shut in, about 6 months since HH-1 started producing water (although UKOG have failed to specifically mention that has happened) and 6 weeks since UKOG last released any information about HH, which was that HH-1 was shut in following the early October workover.

Oil tanker counts over a short period are not an indication of anything much except they had oil in the tanks on the site, when that was produced over what period isn't known.

Historically UKOG not releasing information when it might be expected they would - say when it appears they have resumed production from a well - seems to end with not so good news.

Ibug,

'They did the 2D seismic on E Sadak in 2019 and processed it in 2020'

exactly - after drilling E Sadak 11 and 12 in 2019 (both dry, one sidetracked and converted to producer) they waited for the seismic to be processed and interpreted before drillling E Sadak 13 planned for January 2021

'presumably why they paused in 2020 for the seismic.'

and for another thread here's the 'believer' list:-

jacko61
Oceanskipper
DrMedEvil
Hully145
lonely_shooter
BIGHOW
Geode
mayforddriver
k3vnnyork
Free@last
Petercraigscot
Plasmerman
tkr234
Redheadedrager
RupertBear
Rupertsmum
Elad72
goldenpaddy17
Tigerlilly
charge1962
Tetrolite
oilybloke
DavidWK
Phil7390
Skwizz
Sachs1
tomsie
dalliance
northfork
Nippy
Cornsland
argus1
bazy
timelybuy
HuevosRancheros
Qwerty59
TrollHunter2
bistable
JimmyRustler
Tony13579
Dinero
roganjt
SandyBugler
seadoc
Free-Money
Sting69
Handy111
Fjones

Some even still 'believe'

MattCarter's last post was 30 June - interesting read, not happy.

Otherwise here's more fun from TH2 a year ago (18/12/2019) found this whilst going back to find the believers list. TH" first post of the thread 'Sell at 40p+'

'Smithy may have a buy order at 0.40p, but I guess he/she has posted on the wrong board.
This stock is only going in one direction hence my sell target of 40p plus.

Tankers are rolling on two wells now!!!!!'

I wonder who of the new crop will be here to be quoted next year?

Ibug,

Thanks for that info

Interesting that they drilled 2 dry holes, sidetracking one which was put into production, on the E Sadak field - so even on a field drilling the surface features isn't like shooting fish in a barrel - presumably why they paused in 2020 for the seismic.

As for the production in 2019 that's probably for at least 6 wells so averaging about 100bopd per well - certainly not gushers now even if E Sadak wells have flowed at 1300bopd at some point. Illustrates the production decline in fractured carbonates.

I see there's a lot of posting about the Loxley planning appeal, I suppose it has a much better COS than the well. I just hope all the conspiracy theorists don't mess it up - best joke of the day, Tony and wizard described by TH2 as 'key investors on here putting evidence together to help the case.'

Cynderlad,

Loophole, is that, like, legal? Don't answer, I know the answer is yes. I'd say, if it's his own company it's less objectionable than SS raiding the UKOG piggy bank for his bonus where he has zero interest except his pay packet.

Perhaps I should add to my comment yesterday that the planning committee don't have to follow the expert advice that they are also not required to be experts.

As for 'right' to explore, no they have exclusivity to explore an area, it's up to the company to obtain the rights required.

It is also possible to get an idea of what the fluid content (oil/water/gas) in the reservoir is in specific circumstances from seismic data, although probably not here as the seismic date really needs to be acquired with that purpose.

I'm sure everyone making submissions will declare their (hoped for) financial interest in UKOG getting planning permission. Or perhaps it's not so much the result rather than a possible P&D based on getting the planning permission.

I had a lovely day on the East coast but what a busy day here, nearly twice the number of posts to the number of trades - for some reason the spread was held artificially wide (and high) early doors which skewed the buys/sells - I wonder what they were up to?

Cinders,

I've already commented, in fact it seems to be a reply to you last time you raised it:

RE: 27/11/2020 Planning meeting 02 Dec 2020 17:17
Cynderlad,

According to HMRC if you're paying below the official rate of interest it's classed as a beneficial loan, and:-

'You must report the loan on a personal Self Assessment tax return. You may have to pay tax on the loan at the official rate of interest.'

So as long as he's declaring it in his tax return it isn't necessarily illegal (and I don't believe anyone has access to those except the tax man) - he will also have to pay any NI due.

This information is easily found on the HMRC site.

btw Do you not think that the accounts were probably prepared by an accountant who surely wouldn't put something that was blatantly illegal.'

So not only quickly but actually 2 weeks before before you asked.

BTW I'm not sure how many times you and other posters need to be told - they councillors don't have to follow the recommendations or opinions, legal or otherwise. offered by the 'experts'. In fact that's the very reason they are there to put a local twist to decisions otherwise they would just be a 'rubber stamp'. Reasons have been given - they will be tested on appeal, as I've said many times I expect the refusal to be overturned.

It's a daft system especially when it doesn't go the way you want (as someone who has had planning refused at committee for no apparent reason, and passed on delegated powers with no changes) but maybe the locals will be happy temporarily, as for public outcry - you might be disappointed as to what the public might support.

Paulio,

I'm interested as to what UKOG will proceed with following the Heathrow judgement, or more appropriately when the Judicial Review of HH rejects the challenge to Horse Hill planning permission when the decision is published.

There is no sign that anything would change. They proceeded with the workover of HH-1 (but didn't dual complete it) and bought production equipment capable of producing HH-1 and HH-2z.

Stopping or slowing down progress whilst a challenge with no chance of succeeding was in progress would give a clear signal to protestors how to stop progress - and the company has never suggested that progress was being held back because of it.

It's much more likely the lack of progress at HH is because of uncertainty caused by declining production in HH-1 and water ingress in HH-1 and HH-2z.

Since these problems UKOG has not not communicated any revised plan for HH but has shown no sign of proceeding with the plan outlined in early 2019.

Ocelot,

Just checked SCC - refused.

Turkey - I suspect this is referring to the application which does require award if there are competing bids.

Blockwitch,

the corollary to may be - is - may not be.

Unless Ocelot is certain it is a good time it would have been better to say it may, or may not, be a good time to buy.

and maybe Ocelot should define success - after all HH-1 was (and is) successful, just seemingly not successful enough having transformed the price from over 2p at the start of testing to today's price - hence concern that UKOG are not telling all about E Sadak.

My theory is they are waiting for E Sadak -13 initial flow rates to pump the price - and announce HH-1 outcome at the same time, though that might be January so a long stonewall from UKOG.

Tymers,

whilst I admire your charity your 'profits' from trading are most probably made from 'investors' buying the shares you sell whilst posting nonsense like this (from 23 June):- 'I'll take 70% on my 50 million thanks plonker and no slice until at least 1p ukog united so glad for holders nearly as much as being pleade [pleased?] proving the scum de rampers wrong [right?] again happy days ukog united'

price was 0.38p, don't remember the price getting to 1p since.

as you say 'suggests a lot about you as a person'.

Wizard,

about that slide with 2.6mmbbls in Arreton you linked.

Not quite what has been the selling point, from 20/9/18 RNS:-

'The Isle of Wight PEDL331 Arreton licence is, in the Company's view, one of UKOG's premier appraisal stage assets, which, as per the Company's 2018 Competent Person's Report ("CPR"), contains 14.9 million barrels ("mmbbl") of UKOG net P50 case recoverable Contingent Resources within the Arreton oil discovery, plus a further 10 mmbbl of net recoverable Prospective Resources in the geological look-alike Arreton South and North prospects......................

...............UKOG's subsurface team have also recently identified a further large undrilled anticlinal structure, the Arreton East Prospect, another look-alike to the Arreton discovery and lying further to the east along the same geological trend. Initial mapping shows this feature to be many times larger than both the Arreton oil discovery and Arreton South prospect combined. Further work and potential recoverable resources will be reported in due course.'

So from 24.9 + many times 24.9mmbbls = ? 100mmbbls now 2.6mmbbls (just the Portland in Arreton Main?), losing 97% even of potential recoverable resources is quite a feat.

It's perfectly reasonable after 2 months to expect the company to explain whether the pbu continues or not. They will be aware the tankers leaving the site will have been reported. The last operational RNS 5 November was evasive and didn't state unequivocally that HH-1 was producing water, declining and may have a gas issue. About time for some reality from the company rather than the OGA.

As for tankers - is it cheaper to book a tanker for 2 trips in a day rather than on separate days? Whilst no waste tankers have been seen the water cut in August meant there was only one waste to every 3 oil tankers so more easily missed - or perhaps they have saved up 2 tankers worth.

Crocqman,

Interesting you use children's dreams etc as an example to not to try to understand what's happening - judging by some posts it's perhaps a better analogy than you realise. But this is a discussion board, if posters want to post dreams the 'belief' list about a year ago perhaps demonstrates where 'positive' posters come from, and it doesn't appear to be 'facts'.

But I cannot think of a single plan (not just a few weeks away) or estimated future flow rate issued by UKOG since 2016 that has been achieved. I'm sure I must be wrong, was BB-1 at least started to plan, but perhaps that's why some posters are negative and view with suspicion anything issued by UKOG - or when UKOG go silent on a subject they have been bullish about. Before the workover there was no mention of needing a pbu. They have had significant shut in periods previously so it's odd that another long shut in is required before flow testing - the flow will be what it will be, except a long shut in could help with initial rates. So for UKOG always looking on the bright side of any announcement has, so far admittedly, not been a smart move.

Wizard

Robustly commercial, but is that profitable enough for a mid cap company or a penny, or fraction of a penny share. A placing was predicted earlier because the Basur-3 well was going to be drilled late 2020, see above about doing things as planned.

As for the slide, what's the recoverable for Arreton, not what has previously been suggested by UKOG + the much bigger prospect 'to the east'? for HH? But for Turkey just because elsewhere there are good reserves there is going to be a good reason why the prospects/leads in the new blocks have been left, as UKOG and its investors seem to found out for the Weald.

Ocelot,

Not sure why you think the dice are in any way loaded in their favour. Just because an area has been left sparsely explored doesn't necessarily mean that any prospects are in any way better. The surface anticlines are easily identified so these prospects are going to be common knowledge. There appears to be plenty of activity adjacent to the west so it isn't like it's an unexplored basin, presumably it's because other companies view it as not worth exploring based on the wells that have been drilled within and around these new blocks.

After six decades AME had production from six fields averaging about 750bopd during 2020. One of those six is the analogue to Resan/ Basur, in production for about 6 years. AME are about to drill well 13, the first following a seismic campaign in 2019. Perhaps UKOG's cash raise will coincide with AME testing of E Sadak 13 in the hope it has good initial rates. I doubt that UKOG will release information about production rates from all the current producing wells in E Sadak though.

A self funding drilling campaign at HH was dangled in front of UKOG investors following juicy initial rates. Unfortunately in O&G the expectations often outstrip the reality of results. The justification for the successful outcome now rather than before - production techniques having improved.

So now SE Turkey is great, but weren't we told the Weald has 124 billion barrels of OIP with billions recoverable - but now we're told it's cr*p with only 44mmbbls of proven oil (so now 'proven' comes into UKOG's vocabulary as an important reference point).

and why is Arreton listed as 2.7mmbbls - CPR only has contingent resources - but they're 15.7mmbbls just for Arreton Main - and where's a number for Horse Hill - they put one in for Loxley as well as Arreton.

Is this marking the end of the Weald dream, downplay the UK big up Turkey?

The exploration targets in the area are surface anticlines which are easily identified and drilled often without seismic initially. But these can be breached (leaking) - slide 9 of the previous presentation shows the anticline to the south of the Resan licence peppered with wells with oil shows, but no successful wells. This anticline extends into the northernmost applied for block although they cut the prospect 'blob' off at the boundary. Also slide 4 of the new presentation shows dry wells (white dots) on some of the prospects inside and outside of the blocks applied for, but don't show them on the prospect map (slide 5). Presumably part of the reason the area hasn't been more thoroughly explored, some of the anticlines have been tested - it would be interesting to know the reason for failure, was it poor or no reservoir, or reservoir but no oil suggesting no migration path or the structure is breached or missing the structure as the subsurface structure can be offset from the surface expression.

The illustration of an anticline does not necessarily reflect the more complex nature of faulted and thrusted anticlines - slide 12 of the previous presentation shows more of the possible complexity. Seismic may be needed to accurately map the subsurface. Also does the 'new' Mardin play which may be deeper than previous targets extends into this area.

This game of accumulating protection acreage is one UKOG has indulged in previously - maybe this time - though unfortunately we're now going to get a repeat of the same unrestrained expectations of wealth and oil across unexplored and unproven acreage as happened with the Kimmeridge. 10p party anyone?

Interesting that UKOG said 4 and AME showed 3 blocks?