Member Info for Pelle

This is still dirt cheap compared to others.
Just wait for the 30-40p SP targets.
We will be there before midsummer herring

What made oil share spike 1h ago?
Same pattern Lundin Energy
US market open?

Hello Therapist,
What do you get total including Malaysia?

Yes, its safe wake up.
Seems Russia don’t have the on/off switch to easy increase production.
They cut 2m barrels. Doubt they can get more than 50% short term back online

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Extreme-Winter-Stopped-Russia-From-Benefiting-From-Higher-OPEC-Quota.html

Hello E,
To compare this Apache shale with Enq some rough figures assume size about same and include cost to replace declines (Capex). I see there debt is approx double if you weight it by size.

Enq opex 15
Finance cost+leasing 10
Capex 15

So its around 40 usd total and maintaining production flat
Might be bit high side on Finance cost and capex

Apache Opex 10
Finance cost 10
Capex 15

So Apache is around 35 or lets say the same ball game as Enq.
Or have I forgotten anything?

Or what would your numbers look like?

21 usd? To be compared with our 15?

What is the OPEX for Apache Shale roughly?

Thanks E for giving the bull scenario a chance.
The participants in 65-72 range will have roll of dice if it now end up there.
If oil prices spike you and me will just have a coin flip about the bottle:-)

Hello L3,
Forget about TLW, this looks better.
Also don’t forget to book a couple road/air trips in spring/summer. Catch up for a missing year.
It’s what everyone in Sweden will do!

Hope SA keep it stable or cut another 500k.
After last year there no reason keep low oil prices another year.

Thanks Chilting, are you Swedish? :-)
The best way to face out oil slowly is through high price.
I also saw an plan of US oil consumption with renewable and Bidens plan.
If I remember correctly it was another 500k oil per day consumption over next 5 years to build renewable.

GKB, are you like 95% sure average is below 65?
Just so I get an feeling what odds to put

Hello L3,
Not so easy guess future oil prices, but I believe prices can go to the extreme H2 or next year.
Exactly when and how much remains to see.

Regarding this competition I wanted to separate myself from others. If everyone around the same range its more like roll of a dice.

Think No one predicted container freight prices would triple within months end of last year.
They been nice and stable before

GKB, you want to make L3 bet on below or above 60?

Jan, I didn’t think about intermediate milk like you. Lol
You can only win if prices basically remains flat.

Next week can be fun when we see effects of Texan frost bite.
Checking flight radar also. Last week it seems it picked up guess it’s a lot transports.
It’s not far away from 2019/20

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

Of course I could have been boring wait for all others and just put 0,01 higher then highest.
Now Romaron have second highest at 72.
So I just need above 78,5 average to win:-)
It’s doable!

No Jan,
My model says 68 in March.
To not break down every months I give you
Q1 62
Q2 80
Q3 97
Q4 100

Maybe it’s high but maybe closer then others

AFV has for as long as I can remember a page in the newspaper called Börsgolvet. This week the headline was "oil takes revenge" and they wrote the usual about underinvestment in the sector etc. An individual company was pointed out as extra positive. This company makes big money on oil around 65 usd and FCF is higher than the stock market value, a multiple valuation is justified in the short term. The company's name is Enquest.

Therapist, let’s see if Romaron accept yours

Hello Romaron,
Statistic is not so useful for an event that never happened before.
US production going down and demand will go up a lot with start in Q2.
These are extreme movements and I doubt OPEC will or can keep an lid on oil prices.
So I stick to my 85!

Remember oil average over 100 a couple of years before. So 85 is not that extreme