Member Info for Pelle

Utilisation was already close to maximum before this event since 6 months. That’s why freight prices already before triple

Aloj, probably means more Train containers and air freight to Europe.
There was already problems with sea shipping since autumn.

One shipping expert said this problem will have impact until autumn.

I see it as 50k prod and FCF 400m declines 6k.
To replace it buying field around 200m or drilling 100m roughly.
So it must value out at 60+ oil.
This year for going to debt/EBITDA 1.
Then can slice FCF equal 1/3
Debt
Capex
Divi

Does anyone of you remember what they said about declines for Enq?

Hi Romaron,

35k is today production and it won’t hold 7 years without further investment. So I used 25k.
Can twist and turn everything.

But what that graph says to me , very few new oil projects will get green light at 60 oil.
And if you add to that green era it’s even fewer.

On the other side if Kraken would have been built few years later or today maybe it would been half price
and a lower breakeven.

Lundin was very happy building JS during last oil crisis.

Think sooner or later oil supply will get really tight and we see 100+ easy.
So if Enq keeps on buying at 50-60 oil field like GE with short cycle payback we will hit the jackpot sooner or later

Google and read some different articles says 20 for JS.

The break-even price for the full-field development is below $20 per barrel, and expected operating costs are below $2 per barrel. “Johan Sverdrup has very low production costs, contributing with a strong cashflow also in periods with low prices, as we experience” says Nedregaard.

Hello Romaron,
90 sounds a bit high side so I started some calculations.
I google and found Kraken capex 2,4b assume without leasing. Adding 300m additional drilling.
2,7b and I used a 10 year timeline and added 10% interest rate. Total 4,2b

If we assume 25k prod first 10 years it’s 90m barrels.
4200/90= 45usd
Add the opex and leasing another 20.
So maybe 65 usd.

This is very rough numbers so my guess is somewhere between 55-75 usd.

Think selling bottle water is more profitable than oil at 60 usd

Very nice Jan,
But how do you get 2-3p?
I would rather base it on 20-30% of the FCF next year

Very good discussion today, I can take day off:-)

Hello Jan,
Think they talked a lot about oil staying above 60 goal or where they want to be.
Given this next year will be nice.
But I think they could have added more hedge in high 60 given 60 is kind of the bar.

Nice to hear about dividend plans next year.
Just like I said all the time.
One year was lost because corona

Nothing about FCF first two months?

8am Swedish time report :-)
Hope SP opens 25-30p

GKB, What analysis?

Let’s hope Enq also have pocket a nice hedge in high 60 for the next months.
No reason to gamble for even higher prices over next months

KO, there plenty options for travel.
Israel and UAE top destinations.
Even Bangladesh not doing to bad if your more adventurous:-)

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

L3, Regarding buying back debt and shares over x years. I take it as simple way explaining how cheap company is now.
If you listed to energy conference I posted some time ago , CEO of IPC also said this and they could do it in 5 years.
Let’s see where the oil companies will throw the money. Of course they won’t buy back every share.
So I think they will figure out a solution:-)

Lol Chilting, You sound like a European dictator.
I am happy to lived in Sweden vs UK the last year

AA, you didn’t get any shares yet?

Eric n u t t a l l