Member Info for Pelle

Yeah, if that hotel is acceptable I will stay 1 week for this party!

Squif, it works for me this page. Says 60 p party in summer!

Haha Soder:-) There a new Enquest webpage now, Looks nice and will check more later

Minerb, its a lot of “if” and your basing 15 p at oil at 50 usd 13 usd below today. If your “if” don’t come true and oil go to 76 usd we will soon see 30-40p

Minerb, marketcap was much lower in 2016 when oil was at buttom. Was it around 1 bilj shares and 10-15p? Now 1,7 bilj shares and 19p

Yes, FCF now about 1 milj/day. RCF will be cleared after 2 years. Should we aim for first dividend 100-200 milj in 2021 and more following years!

Hi L3,

Yeah I got it:-) We have misers here too in Sweden.
I dont mind them as long as they do it to themself, but when it comes to friends trying to benefit on you I really dont like!

Its new word for me:-) if correct translations to swedish.
Miser , its people who share one pint on two person?

Maybe trolls are not paid to work on sunday’s. or last Friday oil rise was the last drop to give up

Hi E, Yeah, I been thinking also these payment term for oil sold. So the gains of high prices in sept Oct will be seen in number for Nov Dec. But I think no one knows exactly here. And yes, capex can influence a lot. If they can pull of FCF 110 + 10 Bumi milj in last two months so net debt stands at 1750 year end. Then I am more then happy and January can start to book the 60p party.

Hi Squif, Yeah, i feel same with current share price. Could come a big relief rally with just ok numbers and no negative surprises. Will be interesting follow oil prices next weeks also

Hi Squif

I think Moodys see vendor loan payback as FCF and debt reduction also.
Thats why they had higher numbers.

July to Oct operations did 53 milj FCF
Dec we got 10 milj extra from Bumi.
And I think FCF from operations will be limited in Nov/Dec

So I go for 1840-1850 milj End 2018 Net debt.
Happy to get possitivly surprised

Hi Gkb

Yes, market always over nervous of such things.
AB dont seem nervous adding up 8 milj extra shares ater RI
What if they upgrade instead?

I must say over the last couple of years this have never looked cheaper!
Now all the pieces are there to turn this into good FCF

Hi January

I think someone here said they been in contact with IR and they said up-date within 1-2 weeks.
Dont remember who said it

Morning E

But we had Magnus 25% and Mecuria in H1 also.
Bit hard to see that impact so badly in H2

Hi Gkb

Its probably this rumors about Kraken reserv downgrades thats flying around holding it back combined with the limited debt reduction so far.
Well, we already in to 2019 and days ticking and we looking at EBITDA of 1000 milj with current oil price.
Give that 2-3 years and we must sit on a cash cow.

Good morning Gkb adn E

Ok, I agree in 750 milj EBITDA 2018 but it seems stretched. ( But AB says 750-800)
So it would mean additional 126 milj on top of H1 level.
I thought this would translate into FCF H2 but July to Oct I only see FCF debt reduction 53 milj (if exclude 20+27 milj Thristle and RI)

Can we make any conclusion out of this?

Hi E,

I think there big oppertunities for another Magnus type of deal, its not only about oil in 50,60,70.
As we seen in the news flow last years the big players want to get out of north sea and small prod and margin fields they have opex 50 usd. Just hope AB soon find another good one.

Hi E and Fernan

There one other thing I tried bring up before but no-one answer

In Davos intervju AB mention EBITDA 750-800 milj 2018.
I cant get those numbers right, either with old business exluding Magnus 75% or with 75% backdated.
Any ideas?

Hi Dol

I think he just said the had more cash then ever in last few years.
But it doesnt say much does it...I really hope so they have after RI and all assets Kraken and Magnus added.