Member Info for Pelle

Hi January, Yeah but you might need to go on your chainsaw pipeline holiday in spring unless we get back to 70+ After you return we can have 60p party:-)

Good evening, I guess there was no numbers for SVT or pipelines in the prospect? I can not recall I saw anything So I would assume we should expect contribution will be limited. If I understand correct the pipeline work they will do this summer at 4 fields will save some cost in future going via SVT and increase performance too due to the wax issue’s

Hi L3 Guess we will see in next February update 2020 if net debt is below 1500.

Hi Fernan Yes, I understand you used updated numbers from company. But rough reference to H1 2018 with flat FCF we had same realised oil price, prod and cost structure. Need hope oil price or kraken improves. Glad to see 21,5 k from Magnus. Of course average for full year will be lower with breaks to add new wells. But next year average could be 20-25k

Hi Fernan Yes at these oil prices “core business “ back to H1 2018 numbers with limited FCF. Its just stupidity not to hedge as much as possible when oil was 75-80. Magnus, you also see the lower opex around 15-16 usd based on prospects.

Hi Chilting, I think your right about Kraken and DC4.

Hi Gkb Haha, maybe best someone ask AB at AGM if we need buy wheelchairs instead of party. Point 1 : Magnus opex I am interested in and I posted before that from prospect I get it to 15 usd. Don’t know where you and others get higher numbers?

Hi L3, Bring back oil to 75-80 I spring and we will see 60p during this year even with kraken at 30k.

Hi E,

Very nice, I think my FCF was also around 200 milj given today oil price.
And most of it comming out in Q1 maybe 70 milj if I remember correct.
Given today oil price we look a bit fragile in H2

One question, Magnus opex everyone saying 25-30 usd now last weeks here?
But in prospect it says opex around 75 milj GBP = 100 milj usd Page 179
Given prod 17,5k = 6,4 milj barrels/year
100/6,4= 15,6 usd/barrel

Hi L3

I think all bad already priced in now, so even if oil stays at 60 all year and FCF will be limited in H2 I doubt share will fall. Even if they pull of 50-100 milj FCF Q1 it doesnt make much difference as last update didnt.
Everything is just more volatile now both Oil and Enq so I guess many afraid place a bet.
But if things stay normal it should be good bet.

Hi Acchi

I think you can use Moodys numbers for 2019
FCF 450 milj at 65 usd, reduce with BP share approx 50 milj, oil 50 milj ,higher capex 25 milj
So they still see around 300 milj FCF

Hi L3,

I think we all allign with numbers roughly, dont remember my excel sheet exactly but
Q1 good with hedge and Magnus, Q2 stlil ok with Magnus 100% , Q3,4 weaker given oil price and BP share but still around 10 milj/month FCF.

Longterm, 2020 capex will be reduced to minimum

Even longerterm we will payback BP share of cashflow and finance lease of Kraken.

But we need a good oil year to come on top of these calculationin this year or next year

Hi E,

We talked about this before and technically they could also hedge Magnus on the side and give BP what cashflow they should have based on without hedge.
Given high price I would take that bet too, as those money anyway also pay of Enq debt and profitshare to to BP anyway. I mean if oil went even higher and if Enq would need hand out additional cash above hedge to BP it would be no problem.

For Kraken I also not sure with Swaps but there many possibilities to hedge and Enq very creative in finance normaly

Hi E,

Your right!
But if I get it right I would rather use the swap contract when price was high and get a even higher floor at 80 without upside. if low price I would use these more complex collar hedge with upside.

I know is difficult time it perfect but there was some many moments last year to get it decent right and secure a great 2019 and safely smash down most of the RCF in one year.
And specially given its Enq who have high debt and use hedging always I dont understand anything why they didnt do it.

January

What do you say about arrange meet up and possibly Enq presentation regardless of shareprice in spring/summer this year?

Hi gkb

Ok, Lets see it next week then and who we might need to give a call if its not up to targets!

Hi Gkb,

Have you seen the actual January prod data country by country from opec compared to targets anywhere?
Russia said already from start that they will start slow with 50-60k cut.

I think minerb is the only one who know's exactly about the outcome of this also:-)

http://ravarumarknaden.se/trade-war-and-nopec-shake-but-market-looks-like-tightening/

Can it be because they trying to save as much cost as possible 2019 and want to prevent the cost of 60 p party? Maybe it’s included in budget 2020 with less capex that year. If so I think it’s bit greedy of them and January should bring it up with IR