Member Info for Pelle

Hi E, Wow, first time I hear you use such words:-) And you didn’t react as strongly as me back in Dec. I am happy now they didn’t panic hedge in Dec/Jan and wait for better opportunities that will most likely come in spring

Yeah, but only down side with hedge at 80 would be if oil went to 90-100 this year. Then could hedge into 2020 also. That I would not hold against them

Hi Profit, Yes, can only imagine where we would have been today if they would have hedged 2019 at 75-80 usd 50% + volume. I was so sure they would done that and only afraid that they would trigger it early at 70-75. But that they completely missed it was not in my mind. Let’s see if we get another chance in spring

Hi January, Yes, with 70 oil everything looks great this year. And next year much better. Magnus will probably do 20-25k next year. Capex will be reduced to around 150 milj Less interest costs Just need to get past the insecurities now with oil in 60 and limited hedge horizon. And Kraken stable

Hi Profit, Yes, Moodys Numbers probably most correct. And with Magnus early start 1 Dec and strong production i now see BP get 50-60 milj of these 450 milj FCF in 2019

Sounds good, let’s get Kraken back above 30k minimum. It was other good news in last update as well. Magnus, above all expectations Alma picked up in Nov Malaysia also picked up in Nov Dec So it should be good chances beat mid range guidance 67k

Hi Chilting, Good news Think you spot on what you estimated before. How many days are we at?

Yeah, we will see 2022 +- 3 years . The damage was done not hedge a single barrel at 75-80 usd during October. They could have hedged a way to safely reduce debt to half in 1,5 year. I guess there others who sleep less then me due to this.

And I guess after 3 years survival mode for AB, its now time to present vision and capital market day. Not only standard reporting. This will also help boost share price.

Hi Gkb, That’s a **** in Mississippi for Enq to fund. What they need to do now is look into boost share price. These convenants 0,9 will be 0,5 in summer but seems it doesn’t matter. Start look into buyback shares or some small dividend next year. 25 milj is small but will make a difference Should put some fire on this.

Hi E, Yeah , its not so easy depending how model is build. I build mine on monthly level because so many events. But I calibrated down too much with last updates before and didn’t model the payment terms. Now I need recalibrate after we get all figures and see what went wrong:-)

Evening E, Only this Q1. After that too much unknown with oil prices. I am happy they didn’t hedge more horizon now, and wait for 70+.

Hello E, You predicted FCF for last months very good. How many million you see in Q1?

Maybe can get the 64 usd oil right by friday, always something

Yeah, doesn’t get more signals then that.

Hi Moffa, Yes, I also read something about these restrictions and main questions was if it’s restricted only because RCF?

Hi Profit, Yes, I estimate capex will come down to 100-150 milj next year. Should not be so much more to work on.

Hi Gkb, I remember Boliden Swedish mining company also had crisis valuation after 2008. The day the announced some smaller dividend the market understood there is no crises. Share went up 30-40% that day and several hundred % the following year. So it’s strong signal and if things go good it’s possible next year.

Hi Profitaker, I see based on current oil price they can reduce debt 500 milj over next 1,5 year. So it’s not too far away

I think AB needs think about next steps now after put Enq into solid FCF. Dividend, is that restricted by RCF only? Pay down another 200 milj RCF next 6 months. Re-finance other part with other loan cheaper loan. Give us 25-50 milj dividend next year if business doing good. Buyback shares is another possibility, I think no restriction. 25 milj/year would surely push up share price.