RE: Uranium Outlook 20261 Jan 2026 12:06
From Kepler Trust Intelligence
https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/strategy-investor-place-your-bets-retail-dec-2025
Thomas McMahon
Having decided to throw caution to the wind with my entry for 2025, and pick a trust that could, and I quote, ‘either come first or last’, there was only one true banter result possible, and that was to finish bang in the middle, with a total return more or less in line with the FTSE All Share. Not great, not terrible. That said, Geiger Counter (GCL) has been, at times, in last place in our competition, and at times in first place. By early April, it was down 38% for the year, and in mid-October it was up 50% for the year, or c. 140% from its lows. Volatility really is the name of the game with this one.
I don’t think too much has fundamentally changed with the outlook. If anything, the direction of travel on some key factors affecting demand for nuclear power has firmed, and the bull case for the sector strengthened. The build-out of data centres for AI has proceeded rapidly, and numerous nuclear projects are planned to supply the power needed to run them. GCL is highly concentrated, with 25.5% in the largest holding, NexGen, as of the end of October. NexGen continues to progress the project to open what promises to be the largest and cheapest new uranium mine in the world. If demand for nuclear is indeed going to soar, this would be a highly desirable asset.
On the other hand, there have recently been some concerns raised by analysts about the sustainability of the capex spend by big tech. Some have questioned whether the huge numbers of NVIDIA chips apparently ordered are likely to be plugged in anytime soon or will remain sitting in boxes in a warehouse. Meanwhile, profitability from AI services remains a hope rather than a reality. I think the nuclear trade could be vulnerable to a correction in the growth trajectory of AI. However, I think the overarching need for green energy and energy security will be enough to see demand for nuclear grow substantially in the coming years. I also think AI is going to be a real and important presence in many industries, and even if we get over-capacity built out and a retrenchment, massive expansion of data centre capacity, and power will be needed.
With that in mind, I am inclined to stick and hold on to GCL for 2026. A glowing prize awaits the bold, whatever monstrous deformities the markets throw up over the course of the year. It’s time to rub the lucky elephant’s foot hanging round my neck and hope the tectonic plates don’t shift against me.
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