Member Info for pedro57

Quick question. I already have a small HZM position; I have always been impressed by this board compared to other AIM miners. I wanted to ask what other small cap mining shares you can recommend that are a similar great story like HZM? I am looking to broaden my mining exposure and interested in new names to investigate. Thank you for your help!

They have started production again as highlighted by the following article: hxxps://informante.web.na/2019/02/27/tschudi-mine-workers-on-strike-again/.

hxxp://www.ftse.com/products/downloads/Suspended_Companies_Rule.pdf

WTI is not being delisted yet. The announcement yesterday was that it would be removed from AIM all share index. This is based on it having been suspended for two months. If WTI were to go out of suspension it would go back into index after one year. These rules on the index can be read up on online. It is not a delisting.

I am not an expert on the administration process, but the way I read FTI document was that this is a proposal to creditors, i.e. sale of WTI assets like Tschudi to repay at least some of the loans. One of the reasons WTI called for administration is to protect company from creditor taking full control, which now adds FTI as a middle man. I do not think Orion is interested in a lowballed price for Tschudi, which is what it would get if it were to be sold now before dewatering is complete. I also think as a related party it is difficult for Orion to get its hands on the assets. I think administration complicates the process of Orion getting control. Best option would be is to extend further lending to allow for Tschudi dewatering and to use WTI cashflows to repay debt.

I do not think it is that easy for Orion to buy Tschudi from administrators as it is a related party (largest shareholder and lender). FTI have to get highest price for the assets and invite bids. WTI in administration protects the group somewhat from lender taking control, which could have been one of the reasons for this approach. Generally I would view as the best approach for Orion to fully dewater Tschudi (~$3m cost) and then use cash flows over the next years to pay down as much as possible of the loans. With better dewatering approach mine life would also be longer. Then also develop Berg Aukas to have even higher cash flows for debt repayment. I think there is more going on here than meets the eye.

There is more here than meets the eye in my view. I would be very surprised if Orion wanted WTI assets to be sold on the cheap (Tschudi sales prices would be minimal given that water ingress issues have not been overcome yet / Berg Aukas is only worth something once developed). I am not an expert on administration process, but is FTI Consulting assessment not a proposal to creditors and it is up to them to agree to it or come up with alternative plan. This alternative plan could be the 12-week recovery strategy for Tschudi highlighted by press last week. Orion could avoid having to write off most of loan if Tschudi is brought back online and cash flows are used to pay back debt. The Tschudi recovery strategy seems very detailed and press was implying Orion backing this is ignored by the FTI report. Is Orion's issue that administrators now run the show and they would need to come up with alternative plan to avoid firesale; this alternative plan could be what the press articles were talking about? The appointment of John Sisay as CEO was also high profile (his net worth is substantial after netting $95m from selling his 30% Sierre Rutile stake). I do not see him as wanting to oversee a sale of all of WTI assets; he mentioned explicitly that management remain confident in future financial viability of Tschudi mine.

This is a very interesting development and I wonder what the bigger picture is here? I am not sure if this is the same person, but John Sisay used to be CEO of Sierra Rutile a miner in Sierra Leone, which he turned around before selling it at a premium price. He unsuccessfully was involved in last elections in Sierra Leone. He has now resurfaced at WTI. Difficult to know what this exactly means for company and shareholders, but surely more of a positive than negative development given his track record at Sierra Rutile and strong Africa links.

Would Orion not have had the final word on whether WTI is allowed to buy Berg Aukas stake? Does the fact that they were allowed to buy it not imply that company still has chance to reemerge from all of this? The Berg Aukas project actually looks the best of the three that WTI has (Central Operations, Tschudi and Berg Aukas). A WTI with the other two projects developed (and Tschudi returning) could actually pay back debt and generate decent returns.

Well, USD/ZAR is up ~2% today on back of dreadful SA Manufacturing Production data for April and copper price up almost 1.5%. Based on the strength of the moves in both variables the respective strengthening of copper and weakening of the ZAR could continue in the coming days and weeks. Question is whether there really is the remote possibility that Tschudi can be brought back into production using existing cash resources without needing help of Orion cash following a general debt restructuring?

Well if they really get Tschudi back online its economics have improved considerably today with copper back above $7,000 per tonne and the USD/ZAR rising nearly 2% (horrendous GDP data indicating decline compares to expected rise in GDP). Who knows if this continues all might not be over yet...

Does anybody have a view whether 65% of Berg Aukas was or still will be bought? There is a scenario where WTI would be able to survive by offloading Tschudi and re-emerging with clean slate to focus on Central Operations and Berg Aukas.

Wow, this message board has sure changed, but good to see the interest both from positive and negative angle (keeps the debate going). I think people are reading way too much into Orion not extending financing to Kitumba. They are probably doing WTI a favour given the deteriorating financial and political situation in Zambia. There has been so much negative speculation over the years on Orion's intentions, but if you read original RNS from Feb plan is to restructure debt to avoid the formal, quarterly amendments to its debt facilities. This was re-iterated back in April. Was anybody on this board at the Jan AGM as Orion board member was there, who talked in a very supportive manner I doubt that this has changed, particularly with the RNS released on debt restructuring we have had since. Interesting times and definitely great message board.

Buys outweighed sells by a large margin today and yesterday. Does anybody have a theory on who has been buying as the volumes have been very high? Orion is ultimately interested in the copper off-take and hard to see them closing up shop with Tschudi still generating cash. Debt restructuring also still targeted as mentioned in last few RNS. With Tschudi still generating cash do not see early shutdown as this would limit cash recovery.

7% of shareholders are Namibian, it should be in Orion’s interest to ensure that they do not lose out as government approves the licenses. Best option is to bring back Central Operations and develop Berg Aukas and restructure Tschudi debt, which was just rolled over last month.

It is apparent that Strand Hanson is an expert on Africa next to being held in high regard by clients and investors. I actually read today's release as a positive development as it implies that WTI is actively working on its standing in the market as a new and better broker could help step up positive communication (broker reports and African finance angle). It also implies that Tschudi has turned a corner and company is now looking for a better broker that can help with its large African presence. Essentially company is gearing up for communicating more effectively, which will be possible once debts have been restructured and it now longer has to mention risk of bankruptcy in its statements.

I think that CDC could make a very interesting investment, is it correct that one main advantage of CDC over other copper plays is the fact that the initial investment needed to set up operations is not as significant allowing for higher IRRs at lower copper prices? What are other key positives for CDC? Has there been any guidance when the company will release the pre-feasibility study? Who has been the persistent seller of CDC shares before and at market open every day and any understanding when this selling could end?