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Cindercone it’s never wise to base this kind of discussion on absolutes such as:

“Except the meteoric rise in V price had nothing to do with Fortune Mojapelo”

Let’s go back in time.

In 2016 BMN was just another junior mining explorer hoping to become a producer but facing the need to raise $200 to $300 million dollars to build a mine and plant at Mokopane, and facing the issue of acquiring a mining licence. The sp dipped below 1.5p.

In 2016 / 17 the opportunity arose to buy into Vametco. V prices were rock bottom and Fortine made his move, acquiring a decent slice of Vametco for about $17 million (I may be slightly out as working from memory). The deal was described by one well known mining analyst as one of the best he had seen.

The loan required was paid of within I believe 3 months, using profit from the plant. In one very clever deal BMN became a producer.

Now we all know what happened next … the V price rise (as predicted by Fortune) and 2018 was a very profitable year for the company. This was reflected in a very high share price. Funds were used to acquire a larger slice of Vametco. Yet more clever deals.

Now you argue that the rise in share price had nothing to do with Fortune, so tell me this. If Fortune hadn’t acted quickly, negotiated a great deal to buy Vametco and instantly become a producer where do you think the share price would have gone in 2018 if BMN were not producing Vanadium? The 48p sp was reached only because Fotune had bought into Vametco, seizing the opportunity when it arose, and thus allowing BMN to profit from rising V prices.

QED in my opinion. To say the high share had nothing to do with Fortune is completely wrong.

Jelly I had to smile at that comment. It makes no sense at all given that I wrote this in my 17.38 post:

“Most would agree that communications are not great at times and no shareholder can be pleased with the share price.”

Please explain to me the basis of your comment.

Jelly are you challenging any of the achievements that I have listed in my 17.38 post?

Once all these developments are fully completed do you agree that the company is likely to be more profitable and that the market cap will be significantly higher?

Exactly the same negativity could be read on this bb from 2015 to early 2017.

That was just before the first Vametco acquisition and the share price rise from 1.5p to 48p.

There were shareholders then that could not see beyond the daily share price. Some sold out and missed out on the meteoric rise in share price whilst others made huge profits. I wonder if history will repeat itself.

Strange that a BoD that some are attacking so strongly has achieved so much in 2021:

Vametco unplanned maintenance (Q1) has achieved stable production rates above the target every month since.

Vametco costs have been falling and may continue into Q4, helped by strong US$ v Rand.

Vanchem production stable.

Work underway to open second kiln at Vanchem to increase production at plant to 2,600 mtV pa. Financing in place.

Work continues on construction site for electrolyte production. Partner IDC providing some funding.

Despite some questioning logistics, monthly deliveries still being reported for US market.

BE funding investment in Enerox through the very profitable sale of shares in Invinity.

Background progress on developing the Vametco mini-grid.

I understand there to be other developments within BE which the company cannot disclose (NDAs?)

Most would agree that communications are not great at times and no shareholder can be pleased with the share price. However there has been real progress with the business in 2021.

In my opinion it is necessary to build the sound and profitable business first. The market cap will follow.

All just my opinion but based upon published information and data.

Beginerman I don’t think I have ever read a post here declaring that Africa in general or South Africa in particaular is the safest of investment jurisdictions or that investing in AIM mining stocks is anything but a high risk investment. I have no idea why you think otherwise.

But your comment misses the point. What is important is the investor’s own attitude towards risk. There are many institutions and private investors who won’t touch AIM companies but equally there are others who relish the high risk with potential high reward. 2018 proved that a company like BMN can generate great rewards for its shareholders but nothing is guaranteed.

I certainly regard the AIM mining sector as high risk but once BMN became a producer the risk reduced significantly in my opinion.

I think where many people get it wrong is that they don’t fully understand the mining industry and specifically the fact that it can take 5 to 10 years for a company to move from exploration to full scale production, if it ever achieves that. BMN made it in about 5 years and have gone from strength to strength since 2017.

In 2013 when I first invested in a junior mining explorer called BMN, I put money into a few other similar wannabe miners. BMN is the only one of those companies that has actually achieved production. Despite fancy PR and big plans none of the others delivered. Not bad considering BMN operates in South Africa!

Just my opinion.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

Regards. Paul

Thanks Goblesmythe. I had forgotten that.

Thanks LS.

Worth remembering that BMN group production total for Q3 was 1050 mtV.

That is a record for the company and if repeated would represent an annual rate of 4200 mtV. Not an insignificant share of the market outside China!

With costs falling significantly since Q1 at Vametco and a second kiln at Vametco hopefully opening next year that will add another 1600 mtV pa to production things are looking very good in my opinion.

Further improvement in the dollar rand rate and higher V prices would no doubt add more interest.

And none of the above includes developments with Bushveld Energy such as electrolyte production and contracts.

All just my opinion.

Whilst not doubting your word LB21 could you or anyone else supply a link to the relevant data or reliable source for verification. Much appreciated.

I have no idea if there was “over optimism and general naivety”at the time, though I can see that with hindsight some might think that. It certainly wasn’t being described that way at the time.

So why hasn’t Mokopane been developed yet? I see two main reasons.

The first and obvious one was that it took years to acquire the mining licence. The delay appears to have been due to corruption at the regional office that grants licences. I am very happy that Fortune refused to play ball. Something that he does not get enough credit for on this bb in my opinion.

The second issue was the huge cost involved in building the new plant, providing the infrastructure and opening the mine. This I believe was around $300 million though happy to be corrected on this figure. That was a very difficult sum to be raised for a small wannabe company like BMN at the time, and that is a major obstacle for any other company wishing to became a primary producer today.

So it should be easy to understand the genius demonstrated by BMN in acquiring not one but two existing plants, Vanchem and Vametco, rather than pursuing the Mokopane project. It was a much much cheaper and faster route to becoming the primary producer that we are today. In that sense, and as I said before, Mokopane became much less important to BMN in the short to medium term. That does not alter the fact that there are huge opportunities for Mokopane and it’s vast Vanadium resource / reserve.

Is BMN a major player in the Vanadium market? Of course it is.

Remember that a large proportion of both vanadium production and consumption takes place in China and I believe China has for some time been a net importer of vanadium. Therefore in terms of what is available to the rest of the world BMN’s production is very significant and opening a second kiln at Vanchem will certainly help meet some of the expected increase in VRFB demand in the near future.

All the above is just my opinion.

Don’t forget Mokopane was announced in 2013. At the time it was the main focus of BMNs Vanadium plans.

However the acquisition of first Vametco and then Vanchem sped up the process of becoming a producer and in the short to medium term made the Mokopane licence and plant construction less critical for the company.

Just my opinion.

Coffeecups you really can’t take being wrong can you.

HarChris was correct and you tried to twist what he wrote. I called you out on it. End of story.

As for your distraction tactic we weren’t even discussing reserves. However now you raise that point there are four active primary vanadium plants. How much would it cost and how long would it take to plan, seek permission, raise funds, construct plant and infrastructure, commission and finally start production? That was the genius of FM to acquire the two existing plants rather than wait years and invest far greater sums of money on greenfield sites.

The answer is in years. By which time (if any are successful) demand is likely to be far greater due to VRFB developments. Where is the problem?

Just my opinion.

Oh Coffeecups you are a very naughty boy!

Let’s include a little more of that post rather than your out of context quote:

“…. but physical vanadium from primary processing plants is not a common product, there are only three producers in the world.”

It is very clear that HarChris was correctly pointing out that the 4 primary vanadium producing facilities are owned by just three producers.

Cough cough Coffeecups.

I’m a tea drinker … always hated coffee.

What is exciting is that BE appears not to be priced in at all.

Seems that this has the potential to give considerable shareholder returns from this ridiculously low share price.

Just my opinion.

Production costs US$ / kgV

Quarter / Vametco / Vanchem

2020

Q4 / 21.0 / 25.7 ($ Rand XR 15.6)

2021

Q1 / 26.5 / 30.7

Q2 / 25.8 / 30.9

Q3 / 22.4 / 27.3

Q4 / ? / ?

I like the steady reduction in production costs at Vametco through 2021 since Q1 maintenance shutdown.

With Dollar Rand exchange rate for Q4 2021 looking similar to Q4 2020 perhaps the Q4 Update will show further cost reductions?

If Vanadium prices continue to rise …..

Rand Dollar exchange rate

Q2 14.14
Q3 14.62

At start of Q4 XR was around 15. Today 15.9. Looks like Q4 average will be about 15.5.

That’s about 11% up on Q2 and 6% up on Q3. The effect of this is to reduce costs (mostly in Rand) and raise revenue(in US$).

Recent V price rises further adding to revenue.

Combine this with excellent progress since Q1 at Vametco (including production costs reduction) and stable production at Vanchem … all looking positive for Q4 results.

Looking forward 2022 should see opening of both kiln 2 at Vanchem (greatly increasing output and reducing production costs) and commissioning of the new Electrolyte plant

Meantime we await news from BE which hopefully will bring smiles …

Just my opinion.

Alleycat whilst understanding your euphoria at such a cheap buy in price please remember that there are many who bought in higher and who might not appreciate what could be interpreted as a little smugness. It’s Christmas. Think of others.

Having said that well done at being in a position to buy at what is in my opinion such a cheap price.