Member Info for Pdub

Some BMN positives to watch out for in short term outlook:

Q3 JSE listing, opening up opportunities for SA investors.
Q2 update / Interims hopefully showing that production has increased at Vametco, as indicated by the March figure of 270mtV.
Completion of Vanchem acquisition, adding a little under 1,000 mtV pa to BMN production.
BE news, perhaps including update on electrolyte plant.
Possible share buy back??
Mokopane licence?

Happily read additional positives ahead that I have missed out.

And of course a much anticipated reversal of the V price!

Just my opinion.

That trade dated 21 June at 17.25. Surely that breaks every reporting rule in the book!

Yep. Agreed Faramog. Both here for the big returns which I suspect we both believe will come.

Fair point about the early dividend.

Regards. Pdub.

Faramog one of Fortune's qualities that I admire is the ability to adapt to changing circumstances. I think the "fannying about and missing deadlines" as you put it was a response to a couple of significant factors.

The first was the declining V price. Vametco is still very profitable even at today's prices but there is no doubt that this will have affected margins and projected cash flow.

The second was the negotiation for the purchase of Vanchem, which as we now know requires a significant input of cash (though still incredibly good value in terms of the company's long term plans).

These two factors would almost certainly have put the squeeze on any potential short term dividend payment. Hence the moving deadlines and the statement about future dividend payments.

So for what it is worth I think Fortune was absolutely right if he did indeed delay a dividend payment in order to facilitate the Vanchem acquisition, even if that risked disappointing some shareholders. Of course I could be wrong on all of my assumptions!

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

350,000 buy just popped up after hours.

Canute it's not the share equivalent of compulsory purchase. My understanding is that it would be on the open market. They would only buy from willing sellers. Your shares are safe!

However I do believe the company have bigger fish to fry ie investment in Vanchem etc, so whilst not ruling out a buy back at this point I am not sure that it is a high priority, unless of course they can use shares in treasury to sell in SA. Not my area of expertise

Thanks SOTRR. doing as well as can be expected. Half way through chemo with some annoying side effects on hands and feet, making walking and playing guitar painful (not just to the listener haha).

Next week I have my first scan since surgery in February. Bit nervous about that. Anyway mustn't grumble ... I'm still here!

And trying to as positive about life as I am about this great company BMN.

Regards. Pdub.

SOTRR true that BMN sells into the market and theoretically can influence the price. However reality is somewhat different. We supply a relatively small amount of product and I suspect a large part of that is sold under contract. The contract price I believe runs 1 month in arrears?

Whatever influence BMN has on V price is very small. Otherwise surely they would have exercised that power to prevent the large fall in V price!

I think in practical terms I stand by my comment that BMN cannot control the V price. The market does that.

What BMN can do is use the profits to build the business, increase production and diversify the production locations, reduce costs and expand their product lines. And that is exactly what they are doing. I am very happy with that.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Glad you posted that Alfa. My gut response to the article was Luddite !

One question the article does not address, and it's the big one, is what happens if we don't switch from hydrocarbons to renewables or other forms of energy?

The issue is most certainly not just mathematical. It's environmental, political, social, etc.

Bearscarer I am sorry that you appear to be worried about a cheap takeover. I don't share that fear at all!

Fortune and the BoD would certainly oppose that. I suspect that well over 50% of shares are held by pi's, many of whom are longtermers and would likely oppose it and I suspect some of the major shareholders are aligned with Fortune and would oppose it.

I am not aware of any evidence of anyone building towards a 30% stake in the company.

In fact I see no evidence of a cheap takeover. This fear raises its head on most bb's at some point, yet in all the shares I have been involved with it has never come to fruition.

My advice is relax and stop worrying about takeover. Just enjoy the ride as BMN grows.

Just my opinion of course.

Regards. Pdub.

Bearscarer as a longterm holder I have to disagree with you about sp growth. I'll let facts do the talking:

Today - 25p
1 year ago - 20.8p
2years ago - 8.15p
3 years ago - 1.75p

I am interested in where the sp will be in another 12 months. The pullback from recent highs has clearly been driven by the fall in V price. That is completely outside the control of BMN. Fortune is rightly focussing on what he can control ... building the business. He cannot control the sp.

Regards. Pdub.

The BoD must focus on the business and not be distracted by the (perhaps understandable) impatience of shareholders.

I would like better PR from the company. I would like the company to abandon quarterly updates, except for production numbers. I would like a big juicy dividend payment. However as a genuine long term holder not too concerned with daily sp those things are NOT what I need !!!! They can wait.

What I need is for Fortune to focus on increasing production, diversifying the production sites and expanding the product range .... ie building the business because that is what he is good at. And that is exactly what he is doing. And I want him to use profits for reinvestment to minimise dilution and debt ( currently no debt!).

Expanding the business in timely fashion and with sound finance is what is in the best interests of all longterm holders. Fortune is most definitely acting in our best interests and I see a very exciting 2019 / 2020.

Just my opinion.

Regards. Pdub.

Very pleased to see SP Angel giving the company a renewed vote of confidence with the 90p target. Indicative of things to come and should give shareholders a small boost in confidence. After all they are likely to be closer to management than most of us.

Faramog of all people on this bb I think Alfacomp fully understands that!

The energy produced from solar is however free once the infrastructure is in place. That is what he was referring to. Excess solar energy has little if any cost, whereas any unwanted energy from burning fossil fuels comes at financial and environmental cost.

Expert I am afraid that if you think that TP is the only one in the know that has expressed those opinions about structural deficit and future likely rise in sp that simply demonstrates either how poorly researched you are or that you are up to mischief. I believe the former but I can't rule out the latter.

Now please provide ANY counter evidence to the detailed analyses that have been provided by TP and others and I will be interested. So far you have not. Anyone can express an opinion, but if that opinion is uninformed and based on nothing it should not be taken seriously.

knutsfordnotary I have made some admittedly very rough assumptions. It would appear that through Q2 Dollar Rand exchange rate was averaging around 14.35 + or - , but this is a rough estimate!

Using Q1 cost of production of 260.8 Rand per kgV for Q2 this would convert to around $18.2 kgV, compared to $18.6 in Q1.

What I cannot comment on is any reduction in the cost of production due to economies of scale if production has increased as hinted today on the bb.

Although I cannot say that the figures are strictly accurate it is quite possible that the combination of a weakened Rand and increasing production have helped to make Vametco more profitable after the effects of falling V price are removed.

It should be noted that the Rand has strengthened v Dollar over the last 3 weeks or so, dropping from 15.0 to 14.1 today.

Even better Ophidian. Thank you.

If the March total of 270 mtV is indicative of production for each of the Q 2 months then it is possible that 800 mtV could be exceeded. That would be nice not just for the extra revenue etc but because it would indicate the the Stage 2 developments and more recent improvements are working.

Great info Jamiejojo. Many thanks

Expert could you briefly outline why you are in a better position to judge the structural deficit than those that work in the industry?

It's very easy to say anything you want on a bb. However homegrown theories need evidence to back them up. I suspect that you have none, and are simply guessing based upon V price movements.