Member Info for Pdub

Worth remembering that yesterday's closing mid price was 20.00. The current mid price of 20.75p is a rise of 3.75%

Only reason a loss is showing is because of the post close UT trade of 21.00p. Distorts the following day's rise.

Good to see that admin share my opinion about those that write offensive posts, in this case ageism. Expert's foul post was removed following my emailed complaint (there may have been others).

I received this reply:

"The post has been removed and the necessary action will be taken."

Necessary action will be taken. Music to my ears. Thank you Admin for taking a strong stance with regard to offensive attitudes.

... seems to be rising. A few decent buys coming in.

Good to see.

... what John Meyer, Mining Analyst and Partner at SP Angel, said about BMN at end of July:

"John Meyer 31.07.19 on Vox Markets.

Full transcript:

"Big news today is from BMN who had an absolutely storming first half result this morning. EBITDA $48 million so they've done most of what we expected them to do for the year in the first half. Now that's from a combination of higher ferrovanadium prices through the first half. They had also a bit of a hangover ... they get a bit of delayed pricing so that helps them.

But they've been very good at pushing their unit costs down so the combination of relatively good vanadium prices, lower costs and a slightly weaker SA Rand serves to mean that their EBITDA margins are over 50%. That will fall through the second half in our view, but I suspect the 4th is going to go better.

So we are still looking for the company to produce an EBITDA number of about $77 million for the year and it raises our valuation to 92p per share.

BMN is not just about producing ferrovanadium in the form of nitrovan but it's also about the BE business which is going to produce these VRFBs so these are giant batteries for grid storage to go with solar farms and wind farms. The World Bank has been looking to promote a lot more of this in SA. We think there's going to be some big programmes and BMN through their BE subsidiary are very well placed to provide the vanadium electrolyte for these new battery installations."

"What's your target price?"

"Well we've put a valuation of 92p on it because we think that's what the business is worth. Difficult to exactly figure out a target for these companies at the moment but certainly there's got a lot of upside in it."

"..... I think the market likes BMN but has yet to really get the full value of it"

Just to balance the nonsense being spouted by the deramping team working this bb.

Just my opinion.

Haha excellent retort. I enjoyed that.

However given the frequency with which my name appears here and that it only has 4 letters I think it is reasonable to conclude that expert and others are using that lack of respect to insult me. That really is rather pathetic and childish.

From WB (hehe): “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

Exactly Tom / Alfa.

Expert talk to me again when you have mastered the art of spelling.

Warren Buffet also said:

“If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

Absolute commitment to long term holding of shares in good companies. And BMN is a good company... ie highly profitable. Remember a 2017 loss was turned into a $49 million profit in 2018. H1 Ebitda for Vametco (100% basis) was $48.6 million so profitability still strong even with lower V prices. Nice.

Charlie I do wonder if your gloating would be the same had those stop losses been triggered and the following day the sp jumped upwards?

For example on 19 October 2018 the sp closed at 29.00p. Imagine had you set a stop loss at say 27.5p and having that triggered over the next week (closed at 28.00p on 29 October 2018. By 13 November 2018 the sp closed at 47.50p. I can't help feeling that you or anyone else would not be on this bb bragging about that!

You got lucky. It does not always work out that way.

Just my opinion.

Warren Buffet: “Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.”

Yes expert. On this occasion luck was on their side. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I wonder how many pi's on AIM have had the opposite misfortune?

Warren Buffet: “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

Hi coffeecups. Are those "professional traders" trading AIM shares?

Over the years I have read so many posts from pi's complaining that they forgot to remove a stop loss and had their shares "stolen" by mm's. This can be particularly dangerous if set with a rising sp. it lays the pi wide open to a raid to get more shares.

Personally I never set them. But then as a long term investor in a great company like BMN I don't need them.

Warren Buffet: “Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.”

My reposted discussion on risks and mitigating factors, just to prove a point!

"Some discussion about risks tonight. I hope those posters have a clear understanding of exactly why the company has been driving towards becoming a low cost, vertically integrated vanadium platform. We are hedged against both high and low V prices and although being dependent on the steel market at present, the company is positioning itself as a leading player in the VRFB market.

They are also expanding the number of production sites, which gives some protection against unexpected events interrupting production at one plant and Vanchem will add significantly to Vanadium production. Diversifying products will avoid dependency on just one market. Their strong drive to cut production costs and increase production helps to maintain strong profitability, even in the current V market.

The political risks obviously exist in SA, but with a new President with detailed knowledge and understanding of mining and seemingly determined to fight corruption and BMN delivering exactly what the President wants in terms of mining as a sunrise industry, then it is not unreasonable to be less concerned about the risk.

The profits generated have eliminated any chance of dilution just to keep the lights on ... the scourge of so many AIM companies. Indeed a significant part of the growth of the company will be funded from profit, with the option for debt financing if necessary. That for me is a huge plus.

The V price is obviously a significant factor. Over the next few years it is unlikely that any significant new supplies will come on stream, and the structural deficit that many analysts refer to should help to drive up V price.

I am sure I could rustle up other risks but whichever way I look at it Fortune and the BoD seem to have most bases covered. That is why I remain so POSITIVE. Not ramping ... just looking at the facts as I know them and drawing my own conclusions.

2019 / 2020 looking very exciting based upon what I know.

Just my opinion."

Poortrader a couple of points.

Please read back through the Final Results RNS. You will find the current Dividend Policy clearly stated. A little bit of research goes a long way. Here is the relevant passage:

"The Company recognises that while the value proposition to shareholders is primarily of a capital growth nature, it will have sufficient cash generating capacity to pay dividends in the future. On this basis the Company's Board of Directors takes this opportunity to announce the establishment of a dividend policy. The dividend policy reflects Bushveld Minerals' commitment to return cash to shareholders while prioritising its stated growth strategy. The dividend policy is based on a free cash-flow pay-out ratio. The Board believes this distribution approach is the most suitable for the Company as it takes into account both growth and acquisition capital expenditure. The Board will review the free cash flow generated by the business, the outlook for business conditions and priorities for capital allocation on an annual basis. The Board is not recommending a dividend for the year ended 31 December 2018."

I think that covers that moan.

The tone of the bb? If you read this bb over a period of days and weeks you will find it to be a fantastic source of information which much debate, including risks and how they can be mitigated. A snap shot from one evening, particularly one that has been disturbed by characters with very dubious intentions and little knowledge or interest in the company, is hardly a representative picture of the quality of the bb.

Discussion of risks? They are frequently discussed and I get a little peeved that some falsely claim that this doesn't happen. It is a lie! However it is not surprising that positives get more exposure. Have you seen what the company has achieved? Eg 2017 company made a loss. That was turned into a $49 million profit in 2018 !!!!! And their future plans are hugely exciting.

I will repost my own assessment of some risks and mitigating factors (nice and balanced). I have posted this twice before, and many others have also considered risks. Just recently there was an extended discussion on SA politics.

Just my opinion.

Expert I asked you to give links to your sources. Now please answer the question. Evasion will inform everyone reading your answer all they need to know.

If you have no sources then your comment begins to look highly dubios.

Expert would you please give links to articles or informed comments that indicate VRFB take will be 5 years? I hope you are not just making this up based upon no evidence whasoever. That would be highly misleading.

So evidence please. And I don't expect just your unsupported opinion.

GWPF Bunch of climate change denialists set up by Nigel Lawson. In the 21st Century? Unbelievable attitude.

Forgive me but I don't think it is possible to predict the future sp and timescale. Past sp moves should have demonstrated how quickly this can move (both ways!).

I believe it is far better to have a general view of where the company is heading and not try to be too specific on sp. My own target remains at 75p to £1.50 but how soon is beyond my wit.

What is vitally important is to get to know and understand the complex strands of the business plan and thus the enormous potential for BMN to give value to its shareholders. This helps to maintain a positive attitude, even on days when the sp disappoints.

As always just my opinion.

Correction. "... They have plans to expand production at their Brazilian operations ..."

Apologies for missing word

Logged in this morning expecting to see a number of positive posts following a rise of 6% yesterday, but what do I find? A series of minor doom and gloom posts!

Niobium substitution. One firm provides about 88% of world supply of niobium. They have to expand production at their Brazilian operations by 50% capacity by end of 2020. Two points. We know from the BMN experience that expanding capacity is not without its problems and that timescales and budget can easily slip. And by end 2020 we are all expecting increased V demand for VRFBs which hopefully will more than compensate for any loss through niobium substitution. Also worth remembering that as I understand it Vanadium at these prices is very competitive with Niobium, not to mention that ferroniobium is not as good as ferrovanadium in strengthening steel. Which makes our product Nitrovan even more desirable and perhaps capable of raising the premium paid. And the elephant in the room ... Chinese enforcement of regs.

The share price. I think those that think this will only rise with VRFB contracts are hugely missing the point about the Vanchem acquisition, particularly if combined with the Mokopane licence. This adds up to 40% or more to the attributable BMN production (remember we only own 74% of Vametco which would currently be the equivalent of 2,100 mtV pa) and that means a lot more revenue and a lot more profit. And AIM likes profit. Any further increases in Vametco production figures would do no harm to the sp either. Higher V prices cannot be ruled out and I think we are all agreed on how that would help sp.

Shorters. They are what they are. They have taken advantage of the BMN sp drop following the V price drop, and depend on low volume buying to succeed. Big news like completion of Vanchem may well have them running for the hills if they have any sense. We shall see.

Now of course major Bushveld Energy developments may send this into orbit, but I always prefer to stick to what I know, as above.

I see no reason whatsoever for negative sentiment over the future share price from long term holders with patience. In fact, as I have often stated, 2019 and 2020 look very exciting for BMN and its shareholders.

Just my opinion. Have a good weekend.

Regards. Pdub

Halespur I think you may understand these things better than I do. I'm just pleased the sp is rising and that may help to settle the nerves of some. Positive thinking is my preferred option.

Regards. Pdub.