Member Info for Pdub

That will teach me to look at my phone by the pool!

Jagadish I and others like me have had to endure sneering comments and downright insults about our positive attitude for years. Did you stand up for me? I have reached the point where I am sick and tired of it and am now fighting back. If you don't like that tough. Filter me.

But before you do think on this. At present we are not being swamped by institutional buying so for any share price movement we need pi buyers. When was the last time you bought shares in a company where the commentary was full of negativity? My guess ... never. We invest for positive reasons so this bb should be an excellent place to start. We need to sell the fantastic story of BMN ... because it is a story worth selling. And let me be clear .... I never post anything positive about BMN that I do not truly believe.

I think many posting so called 'balanced' are genuine shareholders, though in my opinion very naive if they think their comments don't put off some investors. There are others that are just plain devious. Sadly it is difficult to separate the two. So I shall continue to defend what I consider to be a great company and will exercise my right to challenge overly negative comments.

If that helps to support the share price then all genuine shareholders will benefit.

Oh sorry. One more thought.

In Q3 Vametco produced 561mtV, of which 74% could be attributed to BMN. Let's call it 420 mtV.

In Q4 Vametco produced 880 mtV, of which 74% could be attributed to BMN. Let's call it 660 mtV.

Now let's assume that Q1 Vametco matches that production rate (ie 660 mtV to BMN) and that Vanchem produces 250 mtV. That's a combined total to BMN of 910 mtV .... almost double what Q3 produced and at lower production cost.

Yet share price now more than 10% lower.

Fair value? Hmm.....

I readily admit to bending a few rules in the above and making some big assumptions but the message is still valid. I doubt very much that many non BMN investors are fully aware of these sorts of numbers. Further more if they tune in here they are likely to find some generous soul adding 'balance' to the debate. Enough to put anyone off investing. Lol.

Really am going back to the pool now. Bye.

Anyway that's all I have to add this morning. No doubt some will seek to bring negativity into the discussion but I am going back to enjoying the fabulous Tenerife sunshine.

Vauch thank you for pointing out the $ Rand exchange rate. Makes the comparison even more valid.

The point of my question in case anyone hasn't worked it out is to demonstrate that in my opinion there is a lot of headroom for this share price and some might think that this represents a good entry point or top up level.

And that is without any allowance for Bushveld Energy (and we know that things are already moving in the right direction there) or Mokopane (a huge vanadium resource for which we have acquired the mining right and remains untapped at this point in time).

Apologies Chish for autocorrect error.

Chisholm then you clearly do not read my posts carefully. I don't base my judgement on BMN on the short term day to day sp. one persons opinion about yesterday's share price us their opinion and they are entitled to express it, as are those that claim to represent 'balance'. Perhaps you are one of those. It is something I don't comment on so why would you expect something different yesterday? Trying to trip me up? Didn't work I'm afraid.

You still tried to skillfully avoid answering my question. Is this a fair valuation of the company. And please no more distraction about shares available. I suspect I have been here a lot longer than you and don't need that diversionary tactic used. The company is producing more at lower cost (greater margins) yet the sp is lower. How is that a fair valuation?

The last time FeV prices were around 30p -31p kgV was mid September 2019 and the sp was about 22p.

At that time (Q3) Vametco produced 561 mtV at a production cost of $19.2 kgV.

Since then Vanchem has been acquired and we are told that expected production is around 1,000 mtV in 2020, or around 250 mtV per Q. This is production that we didn't have in September 2019 and should add value to the company.

We also know from Q4 results that Vametco production is up (880 mtV) and costs are down ($15.2 kgV). Better margins and much more produced! There is no reason to assume anything different for Q1.

So comparing today with the last time Vanadium price was in the $30 - $31 kgV range Vametco is producing far more and at a significantly lower unit cost plus we have the very significant additional production from Vanchem. So how does the share price compare?

Then: around 22p
Now: around 19.5p

I invite anyone claiming to provide balance to explain to me how the current share price is a fair and reasonable valuation for BMN. Good luck with that.

BF I wish I had the answer to that. AIM is a bit of a mystery to me.

That's why I just focus on company activities.

And don't kid yourself that I and others in a similar situation don't fully understand the risks. Of course we do but we just happen to consider that the positives are so much stronger.

So do I get fed up with reading very childish comments about bb police? You bet I do. However it changes nothing and those types of people won't stop the many well researched long term holders posting there research and opinions for the benefit of all. Just very annoying that those people benefit from the collective experience here then bite the hand that feeds them.

For me 2020 is looking like a very exciting year for BMN and its shareholders. If I am correct will you have had the patience to benefit from this?

All just my opinion.

Gunnerbgood there is something I would like you to consider. I gather from your post that you are frustrated because you are currently underwater with this investment. I and just about every other long term holder understand your frustration. Why? Let me explain using my own experience with my BMN investment.

I invested heavily (for me) in BMN in 2013 / 2014 partly as a result
of reading positive comments on this bb but largely because I researched this investment for myself and also made the effort to travel to London to attend a presentation by Fortune Mojapelo (27.11,13) and took that opportunity to talk to him later that evening. I was so impressed with him that I have been a strong supporter ever since. I have had the good fortune to meet him on several more occasions and that has reinforced and strengthened my belief that he possessed all the qualities necessary to grow this business and produce an excellent return on my investment.

For you this is the relevant point. For the period late 2014 to early 2017 the share price fell and I and many others here were underwater for around 2 1/2 years. For much of that time I was 50 to 60 % down! However never once was my faith in the CEO shaken. Never once did I let my frustration with the share price spill over onto the bb. My comments then, as today, reflected my confidence in the CEO and the belief that he would deliver on his plans. Many times I posted here that the company had the potential to produce excellent returns for those shareholders with sufficient patience, And just as today I challenged those that purported to 'add balance' to the bb by posting negative comments. Was I right to do so? Well judge for yourself.

From late 2016 to late 2018 the sp rose from around 1.3p to around 48p. Even today the sp is around 15 x higher than its low point. Do you think I can reasonably claim to be fully justified in my support for FM? Now for those that bought in at a higher level than today the sp must be frustrating (been there too). However ask yourself this. Are the BoD delivering on the plan and building a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform? If you think the answer is yes then they are delivering on their promises and that is rare with AIM resource companies (in my experience).

So do I still believe that BMN offers a good investment opportunity? Well, and this is only my opinion, I most certainly do. Why? Because I don't judge the company by the short term share price. I entirely concentrate on what the company are delivering and how I think that will return value in the long term. And in my opinion I couldn't ask them to do more.

Have I backed up my words with deeds? Again you decide. My investment is fully intact. Even though I sit on very large % paper profit I haven't sold and my only transactions in 2019 were 4 buys (all at higher prices than today!) (to be continued)

BumblingFool not sure how helpful your 'guess' is.

I don't think many believe that the virus causing such disruption is going away any time soon. It seems to me that the vanadium demand - supply relationship will be affected for some time to come.

If Chinese stocks of vanadium have also been run down and if demand for energy storage picks up ... Hmmm.

Vauch over the last three years the end of tax year has made no difference to the overall pattern of share price movement.

In 2017 March saw a very large sp upward movement
In 2018 March also saw significant upward sp movement
In 2019 the downward movement continued through March and April.

There is no pattern to support your comment. If this sp has sufficient pressure to rise it will do so irrespective if time of year. If V prices continue to rise, and it is beginning to look like they will, then sooner ir later the sp will do so too as profits at Vametco and Vanchem rise too. Of course any announcements from the company could also trigger sp rises.

I repeat that there us no evidence to support your view that the end of tax year will hold back the sp. let's dispel that myth once and for all.

Just my opinion.

Loudspeaker I for one really appreciate the facts on V price published by you. Stops those who would seek to deceive from using that against us.

The recent V price rise has been significant and is looking solid. Great news for rising revenue and profitability of Vametco and Vanchem

I am very surprised that those who claim to represent "balance" (haha) are not unequivocally celebrating rising V prices and the very positive impact it will have on Vametco and Vanchem profits.

As always just my opinion.

Regards from sunny Tenerife following an interesting take off from Gatwick yesterday. Credit to the female Easyjet pilot who handled the conditions brilliantly.

paulbpmurphy I trust in your defence of balance that you absolutely uphold the right of people like myself to strongly challenge negativity in this bb?

I can assure you that I will continue to do so.

Just for the avoidance of doubt I believe 2020 will be a very exciting year for the company and its shareholders. I am sure there will be some twists and turns along the way but on balance (!!!) the potential gains far outweigh the possible risks.

This is of course just my opinion.

More significant V price moves reported today on AsianMetals.

Rotterdam up 2.66%
Pittsburgh up 2.68%

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

The biggest risk for me is missing out on this incredible company story and not being part of the growth of the energy storage business at a time when the world is demanding solutions to climate change and others simply need off grid energy provision. This is a very exciting story and I intend to be involved in it, and I make no apology whatsoever for expressing that opinion.

The above is of course just my opinion.

Chish I disagree with you. The problem today was a discussion about SA politics which allowed a certain poster to make this xenophobic and offensive comment:

"... look at the history of the tribes in S.A fighting and stealing from each other ..."

I can only assume this poster still lives in the 19 Century with an attitude like that. For me the most disappointing aspect of the rather unpleasant "discussions" today was that so few people challenged this comment.

For you and others that imply that negatives are not discussed I suggest you read the bb more carefully. However the majority of investors that hold BMN shares and that post here seem to have very positive views about the company and therefore it should come as no surprise that there is generally a positive tone to the comments made.

I would also add that the issue of SA politics has been a reality for BMN and anyone that has invested in the company since the day it listed. It is nothing new and indeed the previous regime was far worse! Yet during that time BMN has grown, become a vanadium producer and is making significant progress towards its goal of becoming a large low cost vertically integrated vanadium platform.

Furthermore it has seen its shareprice rise from a low of around 1.3p to its current level, all with the background of SA politics! The retrace during 2019 from highs of around 48p were largely related to a sharp fall in the V price .... nothing whatsoever to do with SA politics.

BMN markets its products largely to USA and Europe, not SA, and is paid in US $s. In 2019 we have seen the company reaching out beyond SA borders to global partners clearly with a longterm strategy to benefit from the worldwide growth in the energy storage business.

I do not doubt that SA politics are an issue, and one that has been raised many times on this bb, but there is a danger of overplaying this risk and creating unnecessary negative sentiment when the company is doing so well and frankly couldn't be asked to do more to offset this particular risk.

As for potential new investors reading this bb I do wonder how many of them are not aware of SA politics at least in a general sense? Do they really need us to inform them? I certainly had a basic understanding of this background when I first invested here. I didn't stop me. On the other hand there must be many that know little about what BMN the company actually does and just what an exciting future it appears to be creating. The well researched and knowledgable contributors to this bb are in an excellent position to provide that information and that is what makes this such an excellent bb.

For those that consider the SA political situation to be too much of a risk to invest, then fine. Don't buy or if already invested sell. Everyone has that choice. (To be continued)

Uksteve I disagree with your use of the word 'slight' recovery in the Vanadium price. There has been a significant rise in price. Early January European FeV prices at $22 kgV. The last reported actual trade price (by Loudspeaker many thanks) was on 31 January at $30 kgV. A rise of 36% in less than a month!

There have been 5 more working days since then with AsianMetals reporting rises every day. This morning for example another rise of 2.73%! It is quite possible that European FeV prices have risen another 5 - 10% this week, which could place them at $31 - 33 kgV.

I repeat that these are significant increases in the price of a commodity the BMN mines, processes and sells. Therefore these are significant increases in revenue and profit for the company. Let's recognise that fir what it is. Great news!

Just my opinion.

Interesting post BBN.

Food for thought about milestone dates. Fortune has previously faced some criticism on this bb for specific target dates not being met (a criticism that I always believed was unfair as so many factors that are beyond the control of the company can cause delays). I wonder if he has learned that lesson and is now far more cautious about committing to deadlines.

If that is the case then somewhat ironic that there is mild criticism of not providing target dates! I would imagine that trying to keep an entire pi shareholder community happy is an impossible task for most CEOs so no wonder that Fortune just gets on with running his business (and doing it rather well).