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Q2 Update will hopefully be published in 2-3 weeks.

Vametco appears to be running well at a sustainable level of output and a relatively low cost base. Nitrovan sales to their largest market the US should have averaged about $40 kgV through H1. Hoping to see sustained output and costs under control.

Vanchem is one area where Craig is going to focus attention. Figures already released for March and April show increased production. I will be looking for that level of approximately 420 kgV to be achieved in Q2. That should help to bring down costs. However plant is still running below target so I am pleased that Craig sees this as a priority and when output gets closer to target then costs should fall further and BMN will get close to the rate of 5,000 kgV plus pa.

It will be interesting to see what volume of higher value chemicals were produced in Q2 at Vanchem. We are told that prices can be up to $100 kgV.

One strong positive is that the Dollar Rand has been well over 18 and sometimes over 19 through most of H1. This will help keep costs down.

Vanadium prices in Europe and Asia over Q2 have been disappointing but the US market has remained defiantly stronger.

Thanks for the response Bonxie.

I know that electrolyte is a large proportion of the VRFB cost so leasing electrolyte over say 20 years would significantly reduce that initial cost. Not sure if we will ever know precise costs as this may be regarded as commercially sensitive info.

The other point to remember is that the electrolyte can be recycled and reused at the end of the lease period. Hard to imagine that not being reflected in the price to the customer.

I would also add that the grid scale energy storage market is fore cast to be a huge growth area that will most likely support a number of technologies. If VRFBs gained even a small part of that companies like BMN will do very well.

Agreed Codejunkie. It is the chemical / physical properties that make it such a good electrolyte material. Any new technologies that MAY compete would have a long way to go to reach commercial acceptance and production, if any of these wonder technologies ever reach that stage.

The leasing model is designed to effectively overcome Vanadium price volatility and very significantly reduce up front costs for the customer. Look no further than car leasing for comparison.

Bonxie just out of interest could you let me know what the leasing costs of electrolyte are please? I must have missed that.

Thanks

And please don’t imagine I need you to tell me what the role of a CEO is.

Oh and Squirty you conveniently left out Covid, falling V price in 2019 that nobody expected to that extent, global trade impacted by a container ship in Suez, Ukraine war, logistics issues in SA through bad weather and load shedding.

There is no way anyone could anticipate that lot in just 4 years and just when the company was investing in expansion. Couldn’t have happened at a worse moment.

Despite all that they managed to keep upgrade and growth going and now that is handed over to Craig. If V price plays ball he can’t really fail.

Despite the share price that operational progress IS Fortune’s legacy whatever the hindsight experts think

None of that alters my comment Squirty. Anyway moving on the anti FM lobby got their way.

Folks can keep staring backwards if they wish. I prefer to face the future with the new CEO.

Squirty did you say that the time or with the benefit of hindsight?

Would you have the same opinion had the V price remained significantly higher than it has? Global events have not helped BMN at all but hindsight is a wonderful thing

I should add that Batm might be correct in that BE carve out by itself could boost share price significantly.

If that green box is for me remember most of you are filtered for personal abuse. Hope you are not repeating the offensive behaviour whoever you are.

Remember if you are actually commenting on my post the topic is what might move the sp up. And only that. Perhaps you are adding to the list of positives. If so thank you.

More to it than that I think. In addition to BE carve out:’

Sign off refinancing

Good Q2 production figures

Raise efficiency and production at Vanchem

Electrolyte production and contracts

Minigrid up and running

Perhaps some off radar moves on Lemur and Mokopane.

Any one of those could shift share price. Collectively who knows what impact they could have. Depends on how much expected upward pressure on V price kicks in. Rapid growth in new VRFB projects suggests that should happen.

Ultimately any hard evidence of profitability

Just my opinion. DYOR

Good post HarChris.

Share price ticking up a bit this morning

Sistersoffate I apologise for responding with factual information from RNSs. I could have made up an answer but that did not seem to be appropriate!

It’s a bit annoying having taken the trouble to research and construct a post based upon the best that any of us know only to receive such a patronising rebuke. Not very impressed with that.

As you say many will not have read those MUST RNSs and even if you are not appreciative of the post hopefully others may have found it helpful.

As for your question “ Anybody any idea how long it actually takes from FCA approval of the prospectus, to issue of that, and then re-admission / listing? ” I suggest you answer it yourself. I certainly won’t waste my time trying to assist.

As you raised their name DBB I should mention that I placed TrevorBrooking back on filter a couple of days ago once I learned that they continued to reference me when previously on filter. After nearly 10 years of investing in and commenting on BMN I think I have earned the right to express my opinions given that I know more about the company than many here. When he suggested I shouldn’t be posting that crossed the line. Into the bin.

To be honest DaddyBigBucks I have so many of them on filter I have no idea what they are saying but thank you for your comment. Appreciated.

I thought Bonxie raised a very good question and it required investigation. My answer was simply my interpretation of the evidence. Others may disagree and that is fine.

As an aside I thought Bonxie’s response to my post was a model of courteous debate.

(Part 2)

MUST RNS 9 May:

Amendments to terms:

“a) the extension of the maturity date of the CLNs until 31 July 2023; and

 

(b) amend the conversion price, being the price at which the CLNs are to be converted into ordinary shares of the Company at the time of Readmission to the lower of a 20% discount to be placed with or otherwise subscribed by new investors in connection with the readmission of the Company's shares to trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange discounted by 20%; or (b) £0.17.

Also from same RNS:

“Furthermore, MUST announces that it has executed subscription agreements to raise a total of US$2,000,000 through the issue of new convertible loan notes to new and existing investors (the "2023 CLNs"). Pursuant to the terms of a loan agreement entered into between the Company and Enerox (the "Enerox Loan"), the proceeds of the 2023 CLNs will be used to provide Enerox with additional funding until Readmission.”

And from same RNS:

“MUST is pleased to advise that it has received the approval of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Economic Affairs of the Austrian Government regarding the proposed change of control of Enerox, as more fully referred to in the 12 April 2023 announcement.”

End

Sistersoffate.

(Part 1)

Based upon MUST RNSs it is clear that whilst there have been considerable delays they are working slowly through the list of conditions below necessary to progress with the Garnet Acquisition and beyond.

I would imagine FCA approval of prospectus is a bit of an unknown in timing. Other than delays there is no suggestion that the deal will not progress.

Worth noting that BE carve out is linked to this deal, hence delays there too.

MUST RNS 12 April 2023 conditions for Garnet Acquisition:

“The Garnet Acquisition is conditional upon, inter alia:

1. The publication of a prospectus by the Company, having been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority, and readmission of the Company's enlarged issued share capital to the Official List (by way of Standard Listing under Chapter 14 of the Listing Rules) and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's Main Market for listed securities ("Readmission").

2. The Company having obtained the relevant authorities (if any) to issue and allot to Garnet the Consideration Shares and any shares which may become issuable under the Garnet CLNs (the "CLN Shares") (and waive any applicable rights of pre-emption in respect of such shares).

3. If required, the issue of the Consideration Shares and/or the CLN Shares having been approved by the Company's independent shareholders in accordance with The City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Takeover Code"), and The Panel having waived any obligation on any applicable party to make a general offer under Rule 9 of the Takeover Code.

4. The approval of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Economic Affairs of the Austrian Government regarding the proposed change of control of Enerox. By way of brief background, a Foreign Direct Investment regime was introduced in Austria in 2020, which aims to protect foreign investment into sectors relating to national security or public order (including energy related matters). An application for approval of the transaction has been made and a formal response is expected within the next 30 days.

5. The Company raising a minimum of US$15.0 million at the time of Readmission.”

MUST RNS 2 May 2023:

“Dean Gallegos, Managing Director, said: "Significant work has been undertaken by the Company and its counterparties and stakeholders to reach this point. We now have a clear path forward to continue to progress our readmission application with the FCA, which is well advanced, and our discussions with potential investors. I would like to thank our noteholders and shareholders for their understanding and patience to get to this point."

So BMN reported US V price for Q1 at $42.8 and Q2 price at €38 or more. H1 average around or above €40 kgV for BMNs largest market, especially Nitrovan.

Hi Marc. That price was reported on another platform. The source is this week.

If as originally posted then the source is reliable.

I have not requested permission to pass on that detail so I won’t. If someone else wishes too that is fine.