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Interesting numbers.

20 June closing price 3.60p

21 June RNS announcing new CEO closing price 3.10p

Today current price 3.05p

Not much that can be said for certain about market reaction to new CEO as other factors are also in play. However there has not been a surge of interest following departure of CEO Fortune Mojapelo so far even though more than a month has passed since the announcement. Whatever your opinion of the ex CEO it appears that his departure has had little or no impact on the share price.

The market I believe is more interested in operational numbers, financial data, delivery of plans and of course signing off the refinancing package.

Fortune has delivered operational improvement. Let’s hope Craig is up to delivering the next stage. His CV suggests that he is and I am sure that we all hope for an improvement in PR and communications with shareholders and the market.

All of that suggests that the Q output at Vanchem could be a new record and the combined production at Vametco and Vanchem could also be a new record for a Q.

If the above is delivered then Vanchem costs also should fall (economies of scale)

No guarantees as I said but that is what known information points to.

We shall soon find out.

Apologies and thank you Uksteveg for the correction.

So what does the evidence point to?

What we know is that the new local agreement re load shedding at Vanchem is in place and we are told is working.

We also know that better quality feedstock from a third party has been secured for Vanchem.

Output at Vanchem for March and most of April had significantly increased and running at a Q rate equivalent to 420mtV

Vametco has been consistent in output for several Qs and no obvious reason why that should change.

Apologies. Thank you Ukstev

What am I hoping for I hear you all cry? lol

Well there is always the possibility that news will be poor. eg Unexpected interruptions to output like adverse weather affecting the mining operations, plant failure and shutdown, etc. so no guarantees that news will be good.

But what does the evidence in public domain point to?

If previous pattern stretching back around two years is followed this will be delivered on or before next Monday. Not a guarantee but that is what past release dates suggest.

This was published today. Lists the the Top 10 most-read news stories on Energy-Storage.news for the first half of 2023

https://www.energy-storage.news/state-of-charge-energy-storage-news-top-10-most-read-news-of-h1-2023/

Items 6 and 7 caught my attention:

7 Texas’ ERCOT market had around 2GW of batteries online in Q1 this year, but is set to soar to 8GW by the end of 2023. The implications that will have on revenue expectations for both existing and future BESS developments was a key point of discussion at Energy Storage Summit USA 2023, as we heard in this story.

6 Entry into new markets for vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) company Invinity Energy Systems and chemicals company BASF – the latter distributing NGK Insulators’ sodium-sulfur (NAS) battery – with deployments in Hungary and Australia respectively. Both companies are targeting opportunities for medium to long-duration energy storage

Commenting on one example of anticipated 300% growth in energy storage market and publicity for IES.

Very sad story from China

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-66286576

Does not appear involve substandard rebar but this kind of incident can spur Governments to tighten up and enforce regulations.

Maybe China will once again look at the regulations and / or enforcement concerning rebar strength.

“Construction accidents are common in China and have been blamed on lax safety standards and poor enforcement.”

TheDogFarther my question was the use of the word numerous.

Just my opinion but I think the new CEO has his hands full getting to know the company. You probably won’t agree with me but expecting him to answer every question from pi’s at this early stage of his leadership is optimistic at best.

Right now I want him to focus his mind on BMN and how to move the company forward. He has already said that he will pass on some thoughts in Q2 Update. Looks like you will just have to wait until then.

TheDogFather you do realise that Craig has only been CEO for 23 days. Can you explain how you have written to him on numerous occasions? Your comment does not seem to make sense

All of the last eight Q Updates have been released by the end of the month following end of Quarter. Before that there was no pattern of release date. Clearly a policy decision was made to ensure Updates are released by end of month. Unless for some reason Craig has changed that then evidence suggests that the Update will be published on or before 31 July, although one can never be certain that will be the case.

Therefore we can expect the Update either during the coming week or at the very latest Monday of the following week (31 July)

PART 4

Conclusions.

Highest Q production numbers for Vanchem and Group were both achieved in Q4 2022 at 372 and 1184 mtV respectively.

If Vametco achieves production closer to 800 mtV and Vanchem exceeds 400 mtV then Q2 Update may well include record Vanchem and Group output. Anything close would be very positive, particularly if supported by lower costs.

Two other points of interest are buoyant demand for all products in previous Qs and lower V prices in Q2 vs Q1.

As previously stated none of the above is intended as a prediction. Merely speculation on what might be possible. Just my opinion. DYOR.

End

PART 3

Vanchem

All eyes should be on Vanchem because this is where the greatest potential lies for rising production and lower costs. It should come as no surprise that Craig has named this as one of his two immediate priorities.

Kiln 1 was shut down and Kiln 3 commissioned in H1 2022. Production from Kiln 3 was lower than hoped for initially and expert help was brought in to help resolve issues. Judging by numbers from Q3 (350 mtV) and Q4 (372 mtV) the plant successful in resolving some of those issues, particularly as we are told that 200 mtV of production was lost due to load shedding in H2.

That suggests potential production of 400 to 450 mtV per Q. For various reasons that potential was not achieved in Q1 2023 so why would I hope for production in excess of 400 mtV in Q2 which would be a record for Vanchem?

There are a number of factors.

A source of better quality feedstock has been found at similar cost to existing supply.

An agreement has been reached that has removed the threat of planned load shedding.

Production numbers already released for March and most of April point to a Q rate of around 420 mtV

Unless there are very good reasons I would be disappointed if Q2 production was less than 400 mtV. I would hope that higher production would translate into lower unit costs, further driven by a weak Rand, fewer interruptions through load shedding and consequently less use of expensive fuel generators to maintain power supplies.

Similar caution regarding high energy costs.

PART 2

Q2 Update production report.

I have previously speculated that Q2 could provide both record Vanchem and Group production numbers. That needs further detail and I will consider the two plants separately.

Vametco.

When Vametco was refurbished the stated target was to achieve sustainable output. The annual target of 2450 to 2550 mtV was raised midway through 2022 to 2550 to 2650 mtV. Actual production was 2704 mtV, a significant margin above target. To achieve mid point of target (2600 mtV) needs average Q production of 650 mtV. Of the last 7 Qs since refurbishment of Vametco kiln this has been achieved 6 times.

Therefore I am looking for production of between 650 and 800 mtV and hopefully more towards the upper end of that scale. That would confirm once again sustainable production at Vametco. The closer to the upper end of production the more likely are the chances of lower production costs. A weak Rand helps but high energy costs may be an issue.

One caution I would give is that open cast mining can be affected by the weather and production was affected in Q1 due to 10 days of high rainfall. Q2 is Autumn into Winter.

PART 1

Good post SquirtyFlower. I think your comment about the importance of the Q2 Update is very relevant to shareholders.

Point 1 (Production report). I agree with your conclusions about this and as some will know the operational side of the business has been and remains the main focus of my thoughts on Bushveld. Therefore I would like to take a closer look at what I am hoping will be published in the Update about production. Let me stress that this is not going to be a prediction!!! I will post separately on production..

Point 2 (Orion). Yes it is possible that some form of update may be given. Could that include confirmation that all regulatory and legal components have been completed and a date for EGM vote? Perhaps. My own opinion is that this is such an important step for BMN in the near to medium term that it warrants its own RNS, even if all of the above have been completed by Q2 update.

Point 3 (Mustang). I hope we get what you described. However that deal is completely beyond the control of BMN and unless MUST put out another RNS or other communication I don’t believe there is much that can be released first by BMN. It seems that the BE carve out is also tied into this so I am not sure that we will get much on that either. Delighted to be wrong on this though!

I agree with points 4 and 5 as they stand.

As always just my opinion. DYOR

Julian you are spot on with that comment. I got fed up with the insults so just filtered them all. Excellent decision

Good grief. Team green get out and get a life!

Thank you for the positive messages about my news. It has been a very good week for me and I wanted to share that with you. This bb has always been supportive of members facing significant challenges and good to know that generosity of spirit remains strong.

Judging by the number of green boxes on my screen this evening I guess that not everyone is quite so supportive. That’s ok. Can’t please everyone.

Thank you for the supportive comments. Much appreciated. My hope is that by being open about my disease it may help others to discuss their own challenges, not necessarily on here but to friends and family. Not everyone finds it easy to talk about such things.

SquirtyFlower I have not seen the comment you referred to (a number of green boxes) but as reported it does not reflect well on the author. Thank you for your support.

I would like to share some good news about my cancer treatment. I know there will be some that disapprove but most of them are already green boxed so this is for those kind people that have always been supportive of my battle with cancer.

Remember the background to this is that I was diagnosed with a particularly dangerous form of cancer called cholangiocarcinoma at the beginning of 2019. Surgery removed the visible tumours and is the only cure fore this disease. However in the spring of 2020, just as Covid was starting, we were shocked to be told that it had returned, there was no cure and that I later learned that the medical team thought it likely that I would die within the year. They don’t know why I didn’t and have told me that I defied the odds.

Anyway moving on and following various attempts to slow progress of the disease I was referred to a programme in London as a last chance with a new drug not available in the NHS that was showing promising results. I began that treatment in September of 2022.

Every three weeks I have an appointment with my consultant in London and if I have any ‘heroes’ then Professor Bridgewater would head that list! Yesterday I was in London for the latest consultation. He confirmed that I am doing very well and told me that he had one patient that has been on this drug for 5 years! Not everyone gets that lucky but it does give hope.

But that wasn’t the only good news. Some weeks ago I was told that there is a new drug that is even more effective and I have been signed up for that trial as and when resilience builds up to my current treatment. I had a conversation with a family member yesterday who has been researching this new drug for me and it appears that the initial trial results confirm its effectiveness. They have learned the lessons from my current drug and have a treatment which appears to be better in terms of performance and reduction of side effects.

We are all aware of the now rapid progress being made in cancer treatment but trust me when that becomes your own reality … well it’s a great feeling. Let’s leave it at that. The idea that I may have more of a future than just a few months is something I have not experienced for several years so forgive me for the O/T but I wanted to share this with you all. I will never be cancer free but living with cancer is the next best thing.

What is even more remarkable is that my form of cancer is relatively rare and so I did not expect such progress with researching treatments.

I hope that my story inspires anyone reading this that may be facing similar challenges or finds themselves or their friends and family in that position in the future not to give up. Keep living your life and most of all stay positive. You never know what new treatments may become available.