Member Info for PDMSPiper

As soon as the approved home tests are available the open orphan machine testing business model is obsolete.
If a woman thinks she’s pregnant does she go to boots and buy a 5 minute pregnancy test or would she rather pee in a bottle and send it off to a lab then wait a week while it’s tested.
The former of course. Machine testing won’t have the legs. It’s just unnecessary, especially as their ridiculous claims of 100% accuracy are disproved by scientific trials. Not needed. The 99% accurate home POC Test is the game changer.

Thanks Pepesmint. Yes, the fag packet valuation is basically for the company to upscale to full production capacity of over 4 million MTKs per month of all flavours. So some of Mologics Elisa Test, some RTC, some Visitect CD4, maybe other production contracts to be signed in future, who knows but the base case is that if we make a few quid off each MTK produced at full capacity then that level of profit re rates the company up into mid cap territory, in a totally different solar system to where we are now. As long as the massive global market for MTKs continues to grow then the companies future success is very likely.

No tests can guarantee 100% accuracy, including theirs and the Roche lab tests. 100% accuracy is a fallacy.
Open Orphan are pushing back on POC tests because they know that as soon as a 99% accurate home POC Test is available their machine test is immediately obsolete. Why would anybody bother with any other method?

If we don’t want to be so conservative then we can say £4 margin per test so £160Million profit per year at a P/E ratio of 10 which values the company at £1.6Billion and a share price of over £10 but that income would have to be sustained for a few years to achieve that valuation. I’d be very happy with an Mcap of £300-£500Million for now which is very realistic and achievable near term. GLA.

The 4 million tests per month is in the company’s near term expansion plans. Just add up the capacity over two sites...

Hello

Thank you for your message.

Our current capacity for lateral flow tests at Alva is 100,000 tests per week. We are currently in the process of increasing that to 200,000 tests per week and looking at options to further increase to 500,000 tests per week.

Our capacity in Littleport is currently just under 50,000 tests per day. We are currently looking to increase that to 100,000 per day.

We only have two manufacturing sites.

Best wishes
Omega Diagnostics

No. For ODX to be successful it’s about manufacturing millions of any good product at good margin. Anybody’s test. Doesn’t matter whose test. Just make 4 million per month and sell them and they’re successful. Doesn’t have to be the TTC Test. It isn’t all about the RTC Test.

And if the RTC design the Test then ODX will make 4 million tests per month, rake in £100Million per year and the market cap should re rate over time to at least around £300-£500Million as the P/E ratio reflects this level of profit.

And if the RTC don’t design the Test, if the RTC fail then ODX will make 4 million tests per month for somebody else, rake in £100Million per year and the market cap should re rate over time to at least around £300-£500Million as the P/E ratio reflects this level of profit.

We have very valuable manufacturing capacity over two sites.

Yeah sure, because nobody will care about Covid by July, it will totally disappear and we’ll all go back to swigging pints in Wetherspoons and spitting all over each other at close quarters. Lol.
Testing will be required for years. The only people in a panicked rush are opportunistic traders flapping because something else on their watchlist has started to recover from its lows and looks like their misguided naive strategy of making millions on Covid plays then buying all the blood on the wider market isn’t going to work any time soon.
The first sniff of any second wave across the EU or in Britain and this unsupported wider market recovery will come crashing down like a house of wet cards.
The only plays to be in are Biotechs for now and the immediate future. If you sell ODX and go buying in the wider market you’ll lose any profits you make here.
The best place for ODX profits is in ODX and there’s no rush at all. This is a £300-£500Million Mcap company in the making in the near term and I’m talking a few months not years. DYOR.

What is accurate is that little ODX are looking to increase production capacity to 4 million MTKs per month and will sell as many as they can produce into a massive global marketplace of over 7 Billion people. At the 70% margin they currently make on the CD4 tests that’s over £120Million per year clear profit coming into a company who’s current market cap is £80Million.
That’s “IF” the high accuracy bar on the POC Test can be achieved.
I don’t agree that there’s a mad rush or that 7 billion people are not going to care or want to know if they have antibodies next week.
The value here is massive and the risk/reward profile is very attractive. Potential profit at full capacity over two sites is huge and will last for years.
The virus isn’t going away. Everybody will want to know if they have antibodies, still have antibodies or are at high risk or low risk. ODX will manufacture over 4 Million tests per month to satisfy that market and sell every one at big profit into a massive, hungry global market.
The rest is just irrelevant noise. DYOR.

The RTC was handpicked from the most successful, advanced Biotech companies in the UK, Ciga, BBI, Abingdon and Omega.
These companies have the most advanced labs and the most experienced scientists in this field, in the country, all working together with the world renowned Oxford University scientists to perfect the worlds most accurate Covid 19 home POC antibody test.
But hey, “DNANudge” have just knocked one out that’s going to be better and Boris is going to stand up and recommend we all buy the DNANudge Test and we all live happily ever after. LOL. Cuckoo, cuckoo.

Considering you said you sold and wished everybody well Pete, you’re seemingly spending a whole lot of your bank holiday on this board bashing it now, which is strange.
Thanks for the warnings of doom, I’m sure everybody appreciates you taking all this time out to dissuade your fellow man from making a terrible financial mistake. It’s very much appreciated but I’m happy holding for the coming announcements. Thanks anyway.

Anybody who tests positive at home with the RTC gov verified home POC Test and then requiring an immunity passport could then be asked to go to a chemist and have another test at the counter, together with identification, witnessed and verified by the qualified pharmacist. That verified test with identification also verified can then be used for an immunity passport application.
It’s no more complicated or more open to abuse than the application process for any other official document and won’t take an Einstein to work out an easy, secure system.
It will be interesting to see how they proceed. All to play for, starting with the announcement that the test is perfected and they have reached the necessary accuracy bar, then it’s game on. GLA.

My thoughts were that the home POC tests were for mass data collection and peace of mind for those who think they might have been infected.
Obviously taking intravenous blood from the whole population for a lab test is impractical but it could form the second stage verification for any official certification or immunity passport that might be introduced.
So you order your home POC gov verified RTC antibody test from amazon and if positive you register it on the gov.uk website and enter your details. IMO those requiring a immunity certificate would then need to go to the doctors to have intravenous blood drawn and a second officially verified test before being issued with any document.
Only one scenario of many possibles.

Not 100% as the company and media claimed....

“For the Roche test, 93 samples with COVID-19 were tested, of which 78 (84%) gave positive test results. Thus 16% were missed”

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-phe-laboratory-evaluations-of-roche-and-abbott-antibody-tests/

The Abbott and Roche tests are just the first 10Mill needed for key workers and health staff.
The other 50Million they need will be ordered from the consortium as previously leaked and retweeted by health minister Lord Jim Bethel.
There’s been more than enough clues. It isn’t a difficult puzzle to put together. DYOR.

Immunity Certificates are coming after positive antibody testing, no doubt about it.
Much of the negative noise knocking every policy the Gov come up with to get the country back to work is politically motivated and ODX are unfortunately caught in this crossfire.
Antibodies give immunity, otherwise they wouldn’t be banging on about vaccines as vaccines work by stimulating the immune system to produce antibodies. No immunity, no vaccine.
Antibodies will give immunity. People with positive antibody tests will claim a higher level of freedom in second and third wave outbreaks over the next couple of years. A vaccine will be at least 2 years away as they need to be extensively tested.
ODX will increase capacity to over 4 Mill tests per month, sell as many tests as they can make over the next few years and transition to a mid cap £300-500Mill Mcap company and beyond.
It’s all just a matter of time.
GLA DYOR.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8346179/Immunity-certificates-allow-people-recovered-coronavirus-freed-lockdown.html

“Another antibody test being pioneered by Oxford University could be available by the end of May, according to Professor John Newton, the UK's national testing co-ordinator.”

Today’s Article on @Telegraph

https://twitter.com/belcourtoi/status/1263496734296211460?s=21

I wouldn’t read too much into the “Early Promise” comment. That is a neutral comment designed not to have any effect on the share price either way.
He knows the expectations from investors and he knows there’s thousands of us dissecting his every word re the RTC. The last thing he wants to do is say “Nearly there” and cause a 30% spike in the ODX sp tomorrow. “Early promise” is a neutral comment that is designed as such.

I’m not convinced Hanknob will be revealing price sensitive news even after hours, but not impossible.
If the Company releases the design freeze RNS first then they steal the Governments thunder on the big announcement of what’s happening re the mass home test being available.
Possibly gov reveal at night then company RNS next morning at 7am would satisfy all parties.
Will be interesting to see how they handle it.

I agree entirely Merch. This is a Tortoise and Hare story unfolding here.

Everybody who’s had a snotty nose since Christmas now wants to know if they have antibodies.
When subsequent waves hit the authorities will be under great pressure to allow anybody with antibodies to continue to work and resume a more normal life.
In the news, at home, at work, at the shops. It will all be about antibodies and antibody testing.
The ODX Tortoise will be off over the hill into the sunset. ;)