Member Info for PDMSPiper

Just out of interest the Gov and Oxford University set the accuracy and specificity bar at 98% for a very good reason.
98% is the level of accuracy required to confidently test a whole population and be able to trust the results.
When testing a whole population, accuracy, uniformity and reliability is required.
To this end they need to use 1 test. Everybody needs to use the same test to cut out variations in results and test needs to be accurate. Control!

DYOR.

Ok woodie thanks.

Didn’t see it. It’s a very important development for us and a big clue as to how central to gov policy antibody testing is going to be over the next couple of years at least.

Matt Han**** appeals to people who have had Coronavirus to donate their blood so that the NHS can build a bank of antibody positive plasma.

It’s all about the antibodies, test, test, test.

Easy to see where the entire gov strategy is going. Its all about antibodies.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/matt-han****-coronavirus-blood-plasma-donation-a4461441.html

https://twitter.com/matthan****/status/1268960035025149953?s=21

They don’t realise we’ve seen all this before. Twice. This is the third tranche of stock that Richard sneller has donated to charity to bring his holding down from 25% to 15%.
I suppose his broker or the charities broker sells the stock into the market over a few days. Charities can’t spend shares. They need cash obviously.
This is the third retrace that the charity stock selling has caused. This time was 4 million. Should be nearly gone by now.
Should be back up towards 70p tomorrow afternoon IMO.
We’ll see. Whatever happens I’m chilled with it.
No better place for ODX profits currently than in ODX.
GLA.

Big RNS due on the production status of the 46,000 Elisa tests per day for Mologic.
Some big numbers possible there. Elisa tests retail for upwards of £30-£50. Its a professional use test, not a home test.
Standard margin in biotech and Pharma is 60%. Even if ODX make them for bottom estimate, 30% margin on low cost £30 retail then that’s £460,000 per day clear profit.
That’s big numbers at current Mcap.
That’s not even considering the CD4 test news due for sales into Zimbabwe and Nigeria. The CD4 hiv Test was adopted for use by the Nigerian ministry of health.
News also expected on the CD4 CHAI deal with first production supply for them.
Food detective test approved for sale in China so expecting an update on that soon. Possibly supply deals.
News could come from anywhere. This company has a great lineup.
They can score goals from all over the park, to coin a football term. It’s not all about the centre forward, although he’s currently in the limelight.
GLA.

Looks like the antibody tests will have their own app but the data will be integrated into the wider test and trace database.
Could have a QR code on each stick where the user inputs their details and uploads a photo of the test. Only a possibility.
Sounds like a wide ranging, comprehensive turnkey package anyway. Excited about it.

Agreed. I’m in cash and ODX and some crypto and bitcoin for fun and personal interest in digital currencies.
I wouldn’t be holding FTSE stocks or oilers at the moment. The arse could fall out of it anybtime.
If I wanted to hold a big stock I’d probably choose Pharma too, GSK, biotech and Pharma only. Maybe comms at a push. Vodafone didn’t get hit too badly but could still see destruction of mobile phone sales as nobody wants to upgrade any more. The whole thing is a minefield.

True. I’m happy as Larry with ODX, happy with progress, happy with the bod. Great company to be invested in.

It’s crossed my mind that Abingdon could decide to IPO on the back of this. Would be a great buy if they did.

Me thinks he protesteth a little too much.

He’s been quietly selling for two or three days. Not said a dickie bird.

That’s not a coincidence in my opinion. But whatever, all city connected spiv types do it. It’s what they do. He isn’t the only one. PIs are always the last to hear about this stuff well after they’ve all had phone calls from city mates and brokers to offer them the placing.

The only way to get on the same level playing field is use a small Dodgey inside broker and register for placings like they do. Have two brokers.
Their mates ring them to tell them the company is touting a placing round the city, they start offloading then when little broker rings then to offer the placing they take it and dump their remaining stock holding on HL or IG of whatever.
That’s what they do. Protesting that he’s some sort of saint just doesn’t wash. Ha ha. He’s a city boy. They’re all at it.

Han**** has already said that they are full capacity for Phlebotomists using the existing Roche tests they have.
The number of lab tests, or the number of suppliers is not the limiting factor. It’s the time it takes to have people go for intravenous blood draw with a finite number of phlebotomists in the country.
They are currently drawing their max capacity of 40,000 blood samples per day for analysis bybthe roche cobas machines. The machines can handle more samples but the bottleneck is the blood draw.
At current max capacity of 40,000 intravenous samples taken daily it will take over 8 months to use all 10 million Roche tests and about 3-1/2 years to test the whole population.

Why do we need another lab test when we don’t have enough intravenous blood samples to satisfy current lab test capacity.

We need a home poc finger prick test that is as reliable and accurate as a lab test. Hence the formation of the RTC.

Obviously why Myles has been silent for a few days while he sold a lot of stock higher to be replaced at £1-20 for the next rinse.
It’s illegal to comment positively in an attempt to manipulate the market while selling. All the big players go quiet while they’re selling.
Should have been a big indicator. All the placees dumping stock higher up all week.
Punters mugged off again. Far too common an occurrence I’m afraid. Good luck in making back losses. Hoping for the best

I thought it was very important that Priti said in parliament today that antibody testing at airports will be used to remove the quarantine restrictions. That’s massive. And all over the Evening Standard.
I’m surprised it isn’t getting more discussion time on the board.

As has already been suggested, they’ll reverse the requirements for quarantine once our antibody tests are ready and milk the political credit for saving the day...,,

“Priti Patel today suggested that antibody tests may be needed for summer holidays and business travel abroad as she set out five key steps before the Government will relax blanket coronavirus quarantine.

The Home Secretary signalled that blood testing for antibodies, which show people have already had Covid-19 and may be immune, could become a requirement for overseas trips in future, just as travel jabs or malaria tablets are now.

Her statement in the Commons this afternoon came amid increasingly desperate warnings from airlines and holiday companies that jobs and firms will be wiped out unless restrictions are eased. But Ms Patel was unbending in her insistence that a controversial blanket quarantine rule, requiring nearly all passengers arriving in the UK to go into isolation for 14 days, will come into force from Monday onwards.”

Doesn’t get any clearer than that.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/priti-patel-five-steps-quarantine-exit-a4458551.html

Any small market recovery at this stage is too soon and highly speculative. Not supported by any economic fundamentals.
Big unemployment figures coming, house price crash, reduction in consumer spending, oil market hangover from demand destruction, big players getting knocked out of the FTSE.
It won’t last and the first sniff of another cv19 outbreak and it will crash. Doesn’t even have to be and second wave. Just a sniff of it in the news and it’s all over.
I’m staying here until at least next year. Let things play out.
Good luck with whatever you do.

The RNS says 46,000 tests per day. The company have already factored in their projected working hours into that daily production figure.

At 300 days per year that’s 13.8million tests per year.

Should be min £5-£10 margin. So £69million to £138million per year clear profit.

Neither figure would be a disappointment.

I’ve just worked out the possible profit from 46,000 Mologic Elisa tests per day and I need a lie down.

I thought it was per week lol. That could be bigger than the RTC poc tests or at least as big.
Elisa tests are at least 3x the price aren’t they so should be 3X the margin. Lordy. That’s huge.

Bloody hell. It’s 46k per day. You’re right. The margin on these could well be a tenner. They’re Elisa so far more expensive than the poc tests.
I misread that. Lol.

“Once validated, Omega and Mologic will enter into a longer-term supply agreement with Omega manufacturing up to 46,000 COVID-19 tests per day.”

Is it per day??!!!
Lord above. I thought it was per week.
If they retail at £30 at a conservative 30% margin of £10 per test then that’s £460k per day.
That’s a £167,000,000 per annum!
Are you sure?

It’s 42 or 46k tests per week surely!

Another RNS with confirmation of 42,000 per week being manufactured at 30-60% margin would see this breakout towards £1 from here.
Elisa tests retail for upwards of £30 I believe too, so profit could be £20Mill per annum from that.
Update due and could land anytime. That would cause another breakout similar to we had after the Sky interview.
It shouldn’t take much to get her motoring now.