Member Info for Paul2566

Over the last 4 years I have bought as high as 2.88 and as low as 2.03, I have bought lower previously but my records only go back 4 years. As far as I can tell from my personal experience is anything under 2.33 is a pretty good price with a long term view. But I am no trader, I have held LGEN for around 10 years and unless things change it is a permanent feature in my portfolio. Over the years I have slowly accumulated 17428 of these shares and depending on the SP at the time may well add another £2k worth in April/May. My current average including costs/tax is £2.3625. In fact I like LGEN so much its my 3rd largest holding by value.

Lots of green boxes showing on this thread.

Another silly question and I appologise in advance.

Hainan I believe own about 14.8% of Kodal, so although they are a major shareholder I don't believe that would sway the sale decision of KMUK.

However they own a controlling share in KMUK, I assume they cannot force the sale of KMUK. I can't think Bernard whould sign up to that as it would be like handing them a loaded gun, and he is way sharper than that.

With Kodal being a publicly traded company and KMUC being a private company I'm not sure how it would work in theory.

Daz

Thanks.

I am hoping there is no buyout to be honest, however this chat on a buyout, are we talking about Kodal or the Mali lithium assets which are if I understand it correctly owned by the Kodal subsidiary KMUK.

So is the discussion around the takeover of KMUK which Hainan already own 51% of?

Armani

I can't say I'm not tempted, but I'm quite heavy on mining and already hold 676 of these so currently it's going to have to move a little more to push me into overweight.

I already know I'm probably going to regret not buying more at these prices, but my decision is made. Well for now at least.

Roxi

I wouldn't say good, but not unexected given the problems in China and general market conditions.

Profit after tax 2021-2022 = $13 billion.

Profit after tax 2022-2023 = $10 billion.

That appears to be about 23% lower.

However with inflation, energy prices, and world events, as I say not a huge surprise and I think from the comments in the RNS the worst of it is in the rear view mirror.

The dividend is still good and I suspect the results for 2023-2024 will be stronger.

I have held RIO for some time and I cannot see it not being in my portfolio. It has been very good to me in the past and I suspect will continue to reward me well.

I have bought this as high as £55, but looking at my records the majority of buys have been below £50, with most of those being below £47. Currently I don't intend to buy above £51, but I have in the past and no doubt will do again.

Lav I agree trying to time the bottom is a fools game and an investor will miss it more often than not.

I buy when I think ther is a decent gain to be made, sometimes I get it right sometimes not, but generally I have picked the right company but my timeing is off and it takes longer to realise those gains than I expected. I got it wrong with KOD.

I bought a little while back, it climed and I got uncomfortable with the high valuation, so I sold and made £20k, it continued to climb and I kicked myself. It did eventually fall and I allowed FOMO to partly drive my decision so bought back in at 0.7p. Even with my earlier gain I'm sitting on a paper loss of £33k, (ouch), but I bought seeing the potential and am happy to hold. If I wasn't so heavy on lithium, I would add more at these prices. It may well fall further, although I can no longer see a lot of downside. I strongly believe that the KOD team are the biggest asset of this company, if I had to choose I would rather have a poorer asset and a strong team, rather than a strong asset and a poor team. In the case of KOD I think there is a good asset and a strong team. Lets hope I am correct. ATB

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I have my own views however some of which are at odds with the authors views.

I don't believe that lithium will be driven by static battery storeage needs. Sodium looks to me to be more suitable where weight/size/density is much less of an issue when considering the likely higher costs of lithium chemistry.

I don't own an EV at the moment although my next vehicle will almost certainly be an EV. I am not necessarily driven by the need for incresed range per se. I need a vehicle that can cover 200 miles before the need to stop, at which point I need a comfort break and a drink/snack regardless. I do tend to buy a vehicle I like to drive and tend to keep them long term, my current BMW I bought new in 2010, have covered 150000 miles and don't think it owes me anything, and still love driving it. I want an estate style EV (BMW 5 series size) with decent performance, I don't need sub 3s 0-60, but a decent sub 7.5s 0-60 is more than enough, without drifting into super high insurance groups. I need a battery that will still be capable of 200 miles after 10 years/150000 miles. To me that means either a battery with little or no degredation, or a larger battery range when new that even after long term degredation will meet my needs. It needs to be sub £50k. I don't think we are far off the industry meeting those criteria.

The current lithium prices are hampering investment, and that will IMHO cause a price increase in the next couple of years. It will cause a delay in ramping supply to meet demand and those miners already at production at that time will already be profit making at the lower prices, reaping huge profits as the price of lithium ramps up. Over time things will normalise, by which time the big money will have been made.

I'm not happy with the SP of KOD at the moment, but I also believe that over a longer timeframe this will do very well indeed. There is risk of course, as with any investment, but I have over £93k in this which I thinks speaks to my belief in the company. Too many 'investors' seem to expect investing to be some sort of get rich quick scheme. Very rarely this proves to be the case, but most seasoned investors look to the long term bigger picture.

These are of course only my views/beliefs and I can understand others may view KOD differently, thats fine but if they don't see KOD as a good investment, I don't understand the need for them to post on a KOD bb. There are many good companies with less risk than KOD, so invest in them, I have. Undoubtedly the next 24 months will prove to be a good indicator as to the validity of my belief.

I wasn't keen on the sudden departure of Charles FitzRoy, it was and still is unclear what the reason was.

He appeared to be doing a good job, and came over very well on screen.

I couldn't help but wonder if he saw the writing on the wall.

I think they have a good resource, and potential.

However I don't think they know how to get it out of the ground, and without a joint venture I'm really unsure of the future of this stock.

I think the geographical and political location is excellent. There is an argument to be made that the US needs to secure lithium locally, and they may well be of assistance.

Personally I think a jv with a bigger player might be the best way forward. Failing that there is IMHO a chance this will be aquired by another player at a fraction of what its potential is.

I bought 25505 shares in ALL at a price of 43.85p including costs. I didn't sell when it broke above 60p, as I believe in the long term prospects of the company. I will feel a little robbed if the company is taken over before it comes to production and reaches a SP which I believe would be well above the 60p previously seen. The offer would likely be in the mid 30s or lower if previous offers are anything to go by. I can only hold and hope to see production.

I'm 88.8% down on this, but fortunately only a small position of £1710, as it is a long term punt to track this stock. If/as things become clearer I may add more, but at the moment my initial assessent of risk seems justified.

Will9692

If you are an absolute beginner, I would start in one of the main listings and avoid AIM listed stocks.

My reason for suggesting this is, AIM stocks are generally a lot more volatile, and considerably higher risk than the FTSE100, or FTSE250.

Although diversification is a good tactic to use, when starting out most do not have huge pots of money to play with so diversification is not a viable option. Putting all your money into 1 or maybe 2 stocks in AIM would be very risky.

I would suggest if you have less than £1000 to invest, it would be good to start with a tracker fund, please research this yourself, as there are many to choose from.

As you become more experienced you may wish to pick some individual stocks, but again to start I would suggest keeping to the FTSE100 or FTSE250.

I think the advice shared by MrSpoon85 is very sound, and would give it consideration.

I am probably going to get slated for this, but as an absolute beginner I would read the articles on a website called 'Motley Fool UK', the writers articles are not always factually correct, but it will at least give a starting insight into consideration that could be worthwhile when researching stocks.

I would absoluty endorse that stock advice given by randoms like me on forums, is not research and can not be relied upon. I've been doing this as a private investor for 30 years, and I still make mistakes that on occasion cost me £1000's, so you absoluty cannot win every single time, you will lose money. The name of the game is to have more winners than losers. You will not get rich quick, but you can get poor quick if you set out with a get rich quick mindset.

I wish you the best of luck.

Elcobbledore

Thank you again for your considered reply, reminds me what the content was like here about a year ago.

ATB

DOH 'than you' should read 'thank you'

Elcobbledore

Thank you for the link, its appreciated.

I think thats where I got the US$2020 figure from, but couldn't find the presentation again.

'DMS Operation revenue exceeds US$1.05 billion in less than 4 years , based on broker concensus pricing averaging US$2080 per tonne (FOB basis)'

I know that Goldman have a history of a bearish attitude to Lithium prices, but with the current trend in those prices, one can't but start to think they are right. That said there are several other knowledgeable profession sources who contradict Goldmans views.

What is the bottom line for KOD to be able to produce Spodumene at a meaningful profit, are you suggesting US$1000 is the break even point?

I appreciate there is also the gold aspect, but for now my main focus is on the Lithium.

Note that even Goldman is suggesting that from 2025 it is likely that demand and therefore the price of Lithium will rise.

I'm just keen to get other informed views, and than you for your reply. ATB

When I say recent note I believe it was from 27th November 2023.

I believe that KOD has based its figures on a Spodumene price of US$2080 per tonne, although I am willing to be corrected as I could have missed an update, and I am not absolutly certain that the statement above is factually correct.

I believe that the current price of Spodumene 6%, is US$1,580 per tonne as spot prices according to a recent note out of Goldman Sachs.

Goldman is predicting for 2024 a spot price for Spodumene 6% of US$1,250 per tonne.

If correct, this would appear to be problematic.

Bluesky

Loss isn't that bad as I knew what I was getting and only invested a little under £2k.

I am not expecting to see much gain in the SP (if any at all) in 2025, and I think its going to be another 4 or 5 years before we know if this will fly.

At the moment its just about keeping the lights on, which is nothing new for this type of business.

Its possible that good drill results push the SP up on sentiment, but a SP driven by sentiment rarely fails to fall back again.

Please don't get this wrong, an increase in resource is good but in itself does not bring money in through the door, it increases its potential, but does not pay the bills.

This remains a very high risk investment, and will do so for some time to come.

Like I stated my main reasons to accept the risk is I like the location, both geographically and politically. The resource looks to be good, but it remains to be seen if it can be extracted at a worthwhile profit.