Member Info for Patters85

Lucky i sold yesterday, sentiment doesn't look good when a large investor disposes :(. maybe they know something the rest of us don't. Will watch on the sidelines for now.

i would say there is worry that OPEC meeting may be brought forward, which may mean oil price reduce in short term (hence some panic selling)

hi guys, don't you think this has more legs than around the 300 mark? Just doing to some comparative analysis against Tullow Oil, i would say Genel has capacity to double in price on this basis. Other stock which seems a very good price is GKP. Regards - Patters

Debt/bond issue has call option on 15/06/2018 at par. One for the calendar?

Latino - What's not to like? Did you miss the recent C1 costs (due to FX)? The LOM being in doubt after 2020? The USD125m of debt? That Orion are no longer injecting anymore cash (Kitumba acquisition). I was once invested with high optimism here, then things unfortunately went to pot!

Sorry to say this guys, but this is effectively a shell/worthless company now :(. With a LOM of 2020, WTI will never be able to pay its huge Orion debt. Can you imagine the dilution if Kitumba was bought through non-Orion funding as well. Get out while you can is my view.

Mannnan - will you be celebrating at all when you hit the 40,000 post mark? :P

and ZAR is up another 1%

Hi Boffin, Thanks :). Yes, i was reading this link too: https://www.livemint.com/Industry/QWMwCUhgr7OerZq3x2Sm0N/South-Africa-dodges-third-junk-rating-as-Moodys-lifts-outlo.html So basically you think the dollar will improve against the rand (so ultimately we keep our costs down)? Also, how do you feel about the ground flow water issue and the LOM at Tschudi? This is really concerning me, as could it be possible they close the mine? What is your calculation for apportionning the USD/ZAR C1 costs, i.e. the difference between 14.5 and 11.5 is USD600 p/tonne? Effectively you are using 14.5 as the benchmark, so 13.5 is USD200, 12.5 is USD400 etc.? Like many i am feeling a bit anxious about this share, your tone appears calm with a very realistic approach. If you don't mind me asking do you have fair sum invested here and what is your average? ATB - Patters

Anyone body have any idea why USD/ZAR is down, especially since 4 months ago?

Hi all, anyone know the LOM's of both projects here? Seems like sentiment changed here too? :) Enjoy the rest of the weekend - Patters!

Thanks Scrubby, just reading through now. To make this day worse copper is down 1.5%, and ZAR/USD is up 1.5%! All fingers crossed for next week. Nice weekend to all!

quoted from old RNS: "As previously advised on 28 April 2017 as a loan rescheduling fee, Orion has the right (but not the obligation) to buy, if available, up to 700 tonnes of unhedged cathode each month from Weatherly until 30 April 2018 at a price of US$6000 per tonne." Anyone know if Orion are taking up WTI on this option? I guess not, if not, why wouldn't they? Off-hand, does anyone know the RNS date where Orion picked up a shed load of shares, and become the largest shareholder as a result? Thanks - Patters

feels like an eternity to wait, need to try and switch off as i have a feeling SP will carry on reducing with this uncertainty

Hi Scrubby, I think it's down to the following: - ground-flow water issue which is increasing costs - unlikely to meet nameplate - uncertainty regarding loan restructuring Probably a small factor that copper went down recently, and ZAR/USD rate marginally increased. Let's hope the SP picks up, but it doesn't look like it :(

TDT, true! It's painful to watch the SP deteriorate so much

Hi all, In December it was announced the loan repayments were to be deferred until 31/03/18 (quarterly amendment), and according the board change RNS: "The Company is involved in negotiations with Orion to agree a long term restructuring of its secured debt facilities with Orion and to avoid the formal, quarterly amendments to its debt facilities". Based on the above paragraph, I see them amending the loan facilities by extending over the LOM of Tschudi, this way it doesn't strangle the company so much (of course, avoiding the constant quarterly amendments) and fingers crossed they can work alongside Orion to develop the other projects such as Berg Aukas, restarting Otjihase on a small scale initially, and eventually moving onto Kitumba in two years time, it 'could' become a real partnership between Orion and WTI, of which nobody can argue how they supportive they definitely have been! Very recently I contacted Kevin Ellis regarding Otjihase restart, he said (obviously without giving anything away): "If we did restart it, it would only be small scale initially. Even though it is small scale there is still some initial working capital which has to be funded with Orion approval." I have a sneaky feeling that Orion will approve a small amount of working capital to get this up and running again in the very near future. I really think WTI (and hope!) have turned a big corner, as three months have passed since the interim results now. This went to highs above 3p on the news of Burg Aukas and Kitumba which can potentially be huge for the company. Lets not forget Orion approved these purchases, and agreed that WTI can "use part of the uncommitted US$10m loan announced on 28 July 2017 to fund the transaction to the extent that the Company is unable to fund it through operating cash flows". Why would they do this if they didn't truly support the outlook of the company. The fact that Logiman stopped selling is also good (based on filings sourced from Bloomberg), they must know the potential considering the overall outlook for copper. Enough from me :), have a nice evening all - Patters

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-coppermarket-balance-ahome/commentary-another-year-of-supply-deficit-for-copper-just-idUKKBN1GX2BO

Agreed. Purchase of Kitumba and Berg Aukas was an absolute steal, Orion realise that too - they approved it!

At least they are actively maintaining the figures on the website (see company presentation - page 4). Couple of points: - Tschudi @ 17ktpa, with costs of 4950, copper price of 6850 is still USD32m per annum. Lets hope copper price increases a bit quicker! - Kitumba looks promising, USD30m spent already by previous vendor. Orion must fully support the company for this transaction to happen. I guess they snapped it up. Boffin - re. Otjihase, why do you think they don't get it going? I am bit lost on this one, unless it's just a matter on time?? Berg Aukas - PFS underway, $600,000 looks like excellent purchase. All the best - Patters