Moody Analysis - what do you think29 Sep 2020 09:27
25 September 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today downgraded the corporate family rating (CFR) of Rolls-Royce plc (Rolls-Royce or the company) to Ba3 from Ba2. Concurrently Moody's has downgraded the company's long-term senior unsecured rating to Ba3 from Ba2. The outlook remains negative.Today's rating action reflects:? A worsening outlook for recovery of flight hours and deliveries in the company's large commercial engine division over the remainder of 2020 and in 2021? Expectations for cash outflows in 2020 and 2021 at the higher end of Moody's estimates, which could put pressure on liquidity and balance sheet metrics in the absence of further finance raising? Whilst the company is evaluating potential equity and debt issuance, which would be credit positive, concerns that this would not be sufficient to maintain a balance sheet commensurate with a Ba2 ratingMoody's has also downgraded the rating on the company's senior unsecured Euro Medium Term Notes (EMTN) programme to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2, downgraded the notes issued under the EMTN programme to Ba3 from Ba2, and downgraded the company's probability of default rating to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD.RATINGS RATIONALEThe company's Ba3 corporate family rating reflects: 1) high barriers to entry given the critical technological content of the company's engines; 2) the solid performance of the company's defence division and its diverse revenues across different end markets; 3) the strong to date performance of the company's Trent XWB and Trent 7000 engine programmes which represent the majority of future orders and installed engine base; 4) the strategic importance of the company to UK defence capabilities and to the aerospace supply chain, resulting in a high likelihood of government support if required as a result of the coronavirus outbreak; and 5) the company's commitment to a conservative financial profile.The rating also reflects: 1) a weakening environment for commercial aerospace in view of a slow recovery of engine flight hours pressured by travel restrictions, quarantine measures and broader coronavirus outbreaks across several regions; 2) Moody's expectations for substantial free cash outflows in 2020 and 2021 and possibly beyond, leading to increases in leverage which the company faces challenges to recover over the next 2-3 years; 3) high uncertainties over the progression of the coronavirus pandemic which could lead to further material cash outflows; 4) execution risks in implementing a material restructuring programme whilst maintaining operational effectiveness and competitive position; 5) ongoing execution risks in concluding fixes relating to the Trent 1000 engine programme; and 6) a degree of concentration risk with reliance on a small number of commercial aerospace engines for widebody aircraft.The outlook for the recovery of global air passenger volumes has deteriorated in recent weeks as European countries have reintroduced quarantine measures and travel restrictions