Member Info for partridge

Mr Trellis, I think there is a CPR for the horst. If the gas has been in ground for millions of years I don't think it has upsticks and moved in the last three years.

I did the first part of the valuation from 66,000 scuff / day because that is the amount mentioned in 28th January 2019 RNS. I got the 50-75p range and can see why a range of 20-30p is reasonable when amongst other things the time value of money is considered. I compared it to the Mr JJ method to get 23p which is well within the 20-30p range.

The point of the calculation was to show the 20-30p valuation that most people put on the horst is reasonable whilst the 5-10p valuation which is often stated is not. Most of the 5-10p valuation reflects the anger and disappointment everyone, except a select few, rightly feels. Whereas it is understandable to feel this way it shouldn't have an effect on valuation. I think the horst value represents one third of the assets that will, of should, constitute the final valuation price.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2019/06/275785/algeria-gas-pipeline-provides-45-of-moroccan-gas-consumption/amp/

First chance to look at a valuation for Te5 horst. Here goes:

66 million cubic feet @ $8 per scuff gives an income of $528,000 / day.
Which works out at $192.7 million / year or $91.5 million to Sound every year (47.5%).

FEED/ BOOT RNS gives all the infrastructure for production at Te5 horst at a price of $45 million / year.
To Sound this cost is $21.4 million / year(47.5%) for 15 years.

5 horizontal wells @ $10 million / well is a cost of $50 million or $24 million to Sound(47.5%). This is an upfront cost and can be depreciated over say 10 years at a cost of $3 million / year.

That leaves $67 million / year or £53 million / year to Sound.

For how long though? 66,000,000 cft / day is about 24bcf / year. The mid case total for the Te5 horst is 651bcf. At 50% recovery that would give 13.5 years of production; 60% recovery would give about 16 years of production. So, it is quite reasonable to expect at least 15 years of production.

10 years would give Sound £530 million and 15 years would give £795 million. The former is a value of 50p / Sound share and the latter is 75p / Sound share. Allowing for a good return to the buyer it would discount these values to give a range of 20-30p. A valuation of 10p is a 5-8 told discount. The well documented valuation 1tcf being worth 150p to Sound gives a value of 23p ( 150 x .5 x .475 x .651). An increase in this value could be achieved it recovery is better than 60% ( not unreasonable as technology improves over 15 years) and thus increasing the life of the horst. Also perhaps the upper case figure of 873bcf could be eaten into. Perhaps only 3 wells required.

Only the horst value just to show broker estimates are reasonable and already discounted. Feel free to criticise, especially Mr KTF.

but if he was intimately related to management, like some people suggest, then when he sold shares and posted it on this board shouldn't it have been seen as a red flag and thus a signal to sell? And when Mr Parsons sold shares wrapped in the trading plan, shouldn't that have been seen as a red flag and thus a signal to sell? And when at the deep dive the company told everyone the geology and seismic weren't as good as it could've been, shouldn't that have been seen as a red flag and thus a reason to sell? And after every drill failure when no gas was forthcoming, shouldn't that have been seen as a red flag and thus a reason to sell? See where I'm going with this? There have been so many red flags and reasons to sell that wherever the information comes from, if you were holding these shares and never sold, you are never going to sell them. Blame only ourselves.

From yesterday's FSC :

How supportive (in terms of both happiness and involvement) are our cornerstone investors & the Moroccan Government to the sale?


James Parsons (Chief Executive)

We cant provide commentary on behalf of other companies or government. We will of course work to make sure any transaction is positive for all stakeholders in our business.

Have not read all the FSC but this answer is interesting. What is a stakeholder? The Moroccan government have not paid for a stake and who knows what the cornerstone investors paid, if anything. But shareholders might be considered stakeholders. A mystery investor paid 38p in the cash raise last year. Is that a stakeholder? Will that "stakeholder" he included in " any transaction is positive for all stakeholders in our business". What does that answer mean?

informs me there will be a RNS tomorrow.

Seems you've found the same banana skin. 60% of the gas to power needs of Morocco, not the needs of Morocco. Big difference.

"by "word on the street" I assume you meant "I read it in the article posted by that other guy""

Or

Word on the street is that SDX Energy has called in Rothschild to find a buyer. Gossip is that SDX's controlling shareholder, the Abu Dhabi investment firm Waha Capital, want to get out. Waha Capital is rumoured to be behind removal cEO Paul Welch.

SDX shares have halved in value in recent months. Rothschild is M6’s preferred banker.

No, not from the article. But an offer or negotiations would both be RNS'd. So, as no RNS, then my spider senses tell me that what I have written is true.

Mr S/G : No, not from the article. But an offer of negotiations would both be RNS'd. So, as no RNS, then my spider senses tell me that what I have written is true.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/aem/corridors-of-power/2019/06/11/sdx-energy-and-sound-energy-for-sale-rothschild-s-double-whammy,108360800-bre

I have no access but the headline tells the story. Not unique to have Rothschild working on your sale, and not unique to be selling assets in Morocco. Don't kid yourself that any offer has been made or any negotiation has commenced.

hasn't informed me that there will be a RNS tomorrow.

Very magnanimous of you. A true gent. Pity you swore at me. Pity you abused me. But tennis eh? What a game. Still waiting to see the pertinent advice. Remember. A school teacher. Young family. Mortgage not paid off. Not told his partner.£70,000 burning a good in his pocket. Not in a bank account. It would be noticed there. Wife probably wears a metaphorical veil. So cannot see it has gone. What do you recommend? Financial advise? Mortgage advice? Marriage guidance? Or better to post on a bulletin board, add your name to a list? I suppose there was a 50% chance the Sound board was chosen for the first post. Not the other (rose) board.

I haven't been abused like that since junior school. Interesting you are explaining to someone about how your post was misinterpreted and yet you do not allow for your misinterpretation of the post of someone else. Hypocrite, moi? Not too sure what your asterisk means. Are you saying I am a penis and a breast. Angry.

I would apologise for my post if I thought there was something amiss. On this occasion I do not think there is. There is a certain schadenfreude pervading this board. I sense there is a certain pleasure being taken by some in the losses others are experiencing. "Not telling the wife." What is that about? Come on a bulletin board and tell the whole world about your losses. Hey, but don't tell the person to whom half the money belongs. My advice was correct in my opinion. A certain truth. Crocodile tears by some. We all like to be empathetic. Keep personal details off the bulletin board. It is a point of safety. Surely a teacher of many years would know that? Today is one of the few days a question may be asked if the Sound CEO. Why ask anonymous traders when Mr Parsons is available? For myself I will learn to live with my bad boy reputation. If you see me walking down the street with my henna tattoo, my baseball cap and my angry dog give me a wide berth.

Go to the Sound website, login, and ask Mr Parsons directly. No one else knows. Next time do your homework.

Might be an idea if the many share traders on here followed Mr Parsons disclaimer protocol.

The questions are being asked but not shown. It is all about control. Now.

Open for questions, with a new disclaimer.