Interesting comment22 Aug 2008 12:12
From John Stepek, Money Morning
It’s been a great couple of months for biotech stocks…….. Meanwhile both Protherics and Oxford Biomedica, a couple of other small pharma stocks, have revealed bid approaches.
I hold both Protherics and Acambis in my own portfolio, and they’re stocks I’ve tipped in the past. However, just to demonstrate what a volatile sector biotech can be, when I last tipped Protherics in MoneyWeek in February, the shares were trading at around 50p. By the time the bid news had came around, they had slipped – for no particular reason – to as low as 27p at one point. They’re now at around 56p – but that’s a lot of volatility to endure for a 10% gain or so.
What does this show (apart from that share tipping is a mug’s game)? Well, while anyone who bought Protherics at the low has now doubled their money, the chances of most of us getting that lucky are low. And even if you do it once, chances are the next biotech you stick your money into will turn out to be a complete dud. As Andy Smith, manager of the Axa Framlington Biotech fund, told me last week: “I see 400 companies a year. Every one of their chief executives reckons they’ve got a $1bn product.” That’s what’s known as a blockbuster in the pharma trade. But “the truth is that most drugs fail.”