Member Info for ParanoiaBlue

Closed the rest, will watch with interest. ATB

...waiting to increase my short, too much exuberance here, with such a dismal background that PUB, actually has. I note that it is piggy-backing on Enterprise news.

"Punch Taverns' (PUB) sale of six London pubs to brewer and pubs owner Fuller, Smith & Turner (FSTA) last week has prompted some brokers to have a rethink in terms of their stance towards the ailing pubs giant. Charles Stanley's view is that the pubs have been acquired by Fuller at an attractive earnings multiple but the much needed infusion of cash into Punch and the fact that pub buyers are still out there is a positive. Blue Index pointed out that even though Punch offloaded the pubs at 20% below market value, the shares have since seen an upsurge in buying interest. The broker believes the shares still have further to rise and has set a short-term, price target of 53p. Meanwhile, Citigroup has upgraded its stance for Punch shares from 'sell' to 'buy', saying it too believes the shares could rise further, particularly if further disposals are announced. Finally, KBC Peel Hunt expects Punch to receive a lift from the results of Enterprise Inns (ETI), due out on Tuesday. "We expect tomorrow's Enterprise announcement to be positive for its share price and, by implication, for Punch," commented the broker. Shares in Punch Taverns frothed 2.5p higher to 49.25p".

However, I just had to open another short, somebody has got to fall off of “bar-stool mountain” before too much longer!

50% of my short, might close the rest later - let see how it goes.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200903300730016536P

I have been, and taken a bit of a hit – but paper loses don’t really worry me, and I can hold for long enough! It may well be advisable to see how the market digests the latest news. However, medium term – yes, I’m negative on this one. ATB

"Dairy Crest (DCG) shares surged by 34p to 258.5p after it surprised the market by announcing the sale of its 49% holding in Yoplait Dairy Crest to its joint venture partner, the French firm Yoplait, for 63.5 million pounds, resulting in an exceptional profit of 50 million pounds. Dairy Crest made 7.4 million pounds in profits from the joint venture during the year to 31st March 2008. It said a similar performance was expected the following year, but that profits were likely to be hit by the weak pound against the euro further ahead. The move should result in net debt at year end being about 435 million pounds, a substantial improvement on the previous position. The firm has been increasing market share amidst increased consumer caution by discounting, though no more than previously anticipated according to chief executive Mark Allen, who said that Dairy Crest had not been adversely affected by a move to supermarkets' own label products."

Travis Perkins to raise £300m from cash call Travis Perkins, one of Britain's biggest builders' merchants, is preparing a cash call of up to £300m to help it lighten its £1bn debt pile http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/5067463/Travis-Perkins-to-raise-300m-from-cash-call.html

It is just that I am an uber-bear as far as property is concerned. Anyway, as long as both of us don’t lose any sleep over it – that’s great. With situations like this, I usually come in, if I make a reasonable amount, I take a profit, and sit and wait for another entry point. In fact, I may come out later today. However I was reading that the market on the Monday after the clocks go forward, has historically, had a high percentage of falls on that day. So we shall see!

I agreed, their communication with shareholders leaves a lot to be desired. However, this recent “update” doesn’t seem to have had a detrimental effect on the SP so far.

I'm going the other way on these. They have £275m of debt maturing in 2010 with no apparent means to pay it. Also, property prices are still dropping like a stone. ATB

May be a bit early, but we shall see! "Dairy Crest has taken a big step in easing its debt position by selling its 49% stake in yoghurt group Yoplait Dairy Crest for £63.5m. Following the sale, the dairy products group now expects its net debt at year end to be about £435m."

“Next said pre-tax profits fell to 428.8 million pounds from 498.1 million pounds the previous year on revenues that fell to 3.27 billion pounds from 3.33 billion pounds. The group also maintained its total dividend for the year at 55p as expected. Next said its buying teams had responded well to the tough environment, protecting margins and customers from unaffordable price increases. It added that it cut net debt by 111 million pounds to 629 million pounds. Like-for-like sales at stores fell by 6.5%, within its guidance range of a 3% to 7% decline, while directory sales were up 2.1%, beating expectations of a 0% to 2% rise. "Trading conditions in the year ahead will continue to be tough," the firm commented. "The current economic climate in the UK is unstable and this brings short term volatility in our sales which, in turn, makes forecasting difficult." Shares in the fashion retailer fell by 34p to 1,260p”

Punch Taverns faces pressure to write down value of pubs http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/leisure/article5983107.ece

Kingfisher profits fall 75 per cent as Chinese woes takes their toll http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/kingfisher-profits-fall-75-per-cent-as-chinese-woes-takes-their-toll-1655442.html

Next chief warns investors of further declines in sales http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/news/display.var.2498135.0.Next_chief_warns_investors_of_further_declines_in_sales.php

“Until the outcome of Brixton’s talks with its shareholders and debt providers is known, its shares are dangerous. JP Morgan considers a rights issue to be “a mathematical impossibility;” others say £250m of fresh equity is needed for survival. Sell.” [I.C.]

Yes, not in just now, unfortunately, but have been a few times this year. Plenty of scope here to make a bit!

"Fashion retailer Next reported a fall in profits in line with expectations in the year to January 1 and said it was coping well in the downturn. Pre-tax profits fell to £428.8m from £498.1m the previous year on revenues that fell to £3.27bn from £3.33bn. The group also maintained its total dividend for the year at 55p as expected."