I topped up some more today (11:26 80,924 @5.19. to take advantage of the low price and reduce my weighted average to 9.56p.
I later emailed Justin and asked him if he could add anything more to the news that has already been released concerning Well 38.
Justin kindly replied by saying,
“[…] And you'll know that I can't say anything beyond our updates, but all is proceeding at WR-38Z in accordance with our latest update, published on 31 October. As you may have seen on social media, and on our website photo gallery, we have also been pressing ahead with the 3D seismic survey, which has also been progressing well.”
Of course others will read into Justin’s statement what they want to, but for my part I did not expect Justin to say very much (given the LSE rules). However, I am encouraged by Justin’s remarks “…but all is proceeding at WR-38Z in accordance with our latest update.” IMO if all is proceeding in accordance with the latest update then that suggests to me at least that progress with Well38 is going to plan.
Given that Well 38 was completed at the beginning of November I am hoping that we will all hear fairly soon what progress has been made and where we are at in terms of the gas off-take. Hopefully this update will see teh SP rise back to earlier days and many of us will see our patience and belief in BLOE rewarded. I certainly hope so.
Chrisrainy – Hello. I do not comment on BBs very much but read them most days. I agree with your view. have been invested in NFX for a while and have an average of circa 9p. I am one of the holders that you refer to who has seen the SP go above 14p and below 6p but have not sold any shares despite this; it took time to accumulate my holding and like you I wouldn’t want to be out of this stock when the SP soars, which I believe will happen. When I spoke with Dan a few months ago (when the SP had dropped, and I was slightly concerned) Dan reassured me my investment was sound and he appeared very optimistic about the future. To some my belief in Dan might be considered naive but I do not see any reason for not believing him. Also, as much as I would like to see the outstanding payments for NXP001 materialise it is NXP002 that is going to be the main revenue source Nuformix and the recent changes in Chinese law regarding medical trials are very encouraging.
China's DAL- I am not a medical person or a lawyer but IMO the subtext to this new law is that there are growing number of medical problems occurring in China and the Chinese government do not want their people to experience delays in receiving treatments that have the potential to improve or save their lives. Therefore, the Chinese government is now prepared to be more lenient in authorising new treatments for certain types of medical issues especially those involving pediatric and orphan drugs, but requires Marketing Authorization Holders (MAH) to carry out the appropriate due diligence IRO of the treatments to be used; and that these treatments must be held to have a better than 50% likelihood of success, otherwise the authorising MAH might have some difficult questions to answer later. The new law also requires foreign pharmaceutical companies to appoint a legal agent in China, who will be required to assume the same regulatory obligations and liability as the foreign marketing authorization holder.
So it would seem that under this new law people suffering from certain illnesses, such as cancer, will be able to be prescribed new drug treatments that may not have completed all the stages of testing previously required prior to the passing of the new law. Consequntly they may not have to wait as long as before, to be able to try new drugs that could save their lives.
Interesting facts in respect of people suffering for cancer in China
“The bulk of cancer patients in China are afflicted by cancers of the lung, liver, stomach and pancreas.”
“In China about 3.12 million people a year – or 8,550 people a day – are diagnosed with cancer, official statistics show. The prevalence of all types of cancer on the mainland was 285.91 cases for every 100,000 people in 2009 – a rate which has doubled over the past two decades. The death rate from cancer was 180.54 per 100,000 people, much higher than in the 1980s, according to a 2012 report.”
““The five-year survival rate of all cancers in China is 30.9 per cent - compared to 66 per cent in the US. […] The survival rate of lung and liver cancer was even lower, at 16.1 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively.”
“[The new changes to the law could potentially result in a convergence of the bifurcated pathways and enable Chinese MAHs to work with overseas CMOs. Likewise, foreign MAHs may also choose to work with CMOs in China and restructure their supply chains. If such theses become true, foreign companies will more likely transact with Chinese companies to divest their product portfolios or localize the production of their assets in China’
There is an obvious need for the Chinese authorities to try somethign to cange the current sittuation.
The above are just my views and I am happy to be corrected.
Hellp Squirrel26 - I have a small investment here 500K at 0.35 so am presently showing a paper loss.
Other PIs on here will have a lot more knowledge than myself about this company. However , for what it is worth here are some links that you might find helpful and which might arguably suggets some optism for the future of the company.
I am only recently invested in PHC, but should be very grateful for others views on today's RNS. I appreciate that USA farmers have had a quite a bit of a time of lately, but I had hoped PHC's revenues would have been higher. On a positive note it would seem the company is confident going forward and believe that revenues will increase by end of H2.
Current trading and outlook
" The Board remains confident about the prospects for building a growing, profitable Commercial business, as sales of Harpin ??ß continue to increase. We anticipate a strong second half of 2019. We are confident of achieving material revenue growth in 2019 despite macro-level market-driven challenges, although revenue will be slightly lower than previous expectations.
Preparations for the first launches of PHC279 are progressing to plan, with further PREtec peptides following. The medium term prospects for PREtec peptides, in markets worth more than $5 billion, are very exciting.
The Board has reviewed the Company's cash position and concluded that we are able to achieve cash breakeven within existing cash resources. The Board will take whatever steps are necessary, including by reducing cash expenses, to achieve that."
I do not know if the links below show swellable packers that are similar in any way to the types of packers referred to in the Operations Update,
“WR-38Z's completion design minimises the risk of water incursion from formations outside the Middle Eocene, with the zones to be isolated by cost effective and reliable techniques, including the deployment of specially engineered packers that swell upon contact with water.”
But, I found these links to be informative and, in all honesty, a welcome distraction after reading the disappointing Operations Update published teh other day. Hopefully, some may also find these links informative as well. Should anyone know waht packers are referred to in the Update report, then I would be very greatful to know what they are.
I know these packers do not change the situation at 16aZ but at least now we know that as well as Well WR-38Z being drilled on the updip that the use of packers, and the knowledge gained form 16aZ should mean that there is a lot less chance of similar water ingress problems occurring at WR-38Z and once this Well is flowing, hopefully we should see a dramatic rise in the SP.
Cautious – You are very welcome. I agree that we do not have enough info to calculate the average ourselves, nor do we know what type of average was used!
All I know is that the16aZ did flow and the flow rate increased substantially from what was predicted, before being shut in. Then when resumption began at 16aZ the Well experienced water ingress which necessitated that it needed to be cleaned-up before it would be able to get back to flowing to its full potential again. We were alos told that BLOCK had sought help from some experts to address the problem at Well 16aZ. I do not know, as yet, what the current flow rates are at the Well, but I do know from Justin’s recent comments that 16aZ is still flowing – So contrary to what some would have us believe, 16Az cannot be a duster. I also now believe that 16aZ continues to be in the clean-up mode, and despite this I have been given to understand that the flow rates are gradually increasing. How much there increasing by is anyones guess.
We also have been given to understand that BLOCK are fully funded for the foreseeable future and are about to spud another well. In addition to this we also know that BLOCK have increased the percentages in their holdings at their key sites in Georgia, and that they have also secured adequate storage facilities for their current expected off-take, and have to a very large extent agreed a deal in principle with BAGO to provide the infrastructure and to buy BLOCK's gas ( Which we ahve been told is expected to be huge). I have also been reassured by Justin that a Q&A web page will be published – Sadly not here as yet but I believe it is coming soon. Justin has also advised me that BLOCK will also be providing overviews of the various kinds of operations they and other oil and gas companies do from day-to-day. I do not know what these overviews will be, but that is what he has advised me. I alos know that an update from BLOCK is expected any day.
I also believe, that I like many others invested in BLOCK are looking at substantial paper losses, but despite this many PIs like myself believe that some positive news from BLOCK would see a rapid increase in the SP and a reduction in our paper losses - I certainly hope so.
I do not know any more than what I have stated. What I know has been gleamed from my own research, RNs's, Block's responses to my emails and from other' s comments on this BB.
As I do not feel I have anything further worthwhile to contribute, I will wait until Block release further news before making any more comments here.
I take your point about how long the flow rate is increasing over, but that still does not change the implication of the word 'increasing' whcih I would respectively suggest means that 16aZ is not a duster, which is waht I believe you suggetsed in an earlier post.
FWIW - My understanding about 16aZ is as I stated in my post 10/09/2019 “…that the average flow rate stated by Block in the 26 July 2019 RNS referred to the average rate since the well was first tested earlier this year and says little about where we are now.” I would also mention that Justin responded to an enquiry I sent very early this morning to him in which I said,
“Further to our last communication, please would you kindly confirm if the statement quoted below (which appears in the RNS of the 26th July 2019) is still accurate today, in so much that today you are still establishing a sustainable flow rate as the Well cleans up.”
"The Company is adopting a prudent approach, gradually increasing production to establish a sustainable flow rate as the Well cleans up"
“I appreciate that you cannot give any additional information about how the clean-up is going or how much oil is flowing from 16aZ now, but hopefully advising if the above statement continues to be accurate for now is not breaking any rules, as I assume that had there been a significant change to the accuracy of the statement since it was published BLOCK would have published an RNS to update shareholders of this fact.”
Justin’s response was as follows:
“In regard to your specific query –“
"The Company is adopting a prudent approach, gradually increasing production to establish a sustainable flow rate as the Well cleans up"
“Yes, we absolutely continue to do that.”
IAH I do not know how much oil has flowed from 16aZ since the RNS of the 26th July, or if the average boepd has now increased since then, but I assume from Justin’s comments today that the clean-up operation is still on going and that oil is still flowing - This reassures me 16aZ is not a duster. Of course this is just my opinion.
However despite this, I do agree to a large extent with Cautious’ comments when he says, “As the Rns states. 295bopd. Average daily rate since testing. So not the actual daily rate but an average rate from TESTING So on the basis the initial testing rates were FAR HIGHER so it must be a lot less than 295bopd to be able to get to that figure as an average.”
I was intimating the same thing in my post on the 10th September. However, IMO although some flow rates were definitely higher then, we do not know how long those rates were higher for, or what type of average was used, so it does not necessarily follow IMO that the average flow rate today must be below 295bopd, as by now things might have improved. I choose to assume from Justin’s comments and the phrase “gradually increasing” which was stated in the above statement, that the amount of oil now flowing from the continued clean-up operation has been and will continue to be increasing from whatever it was on the 26th July.
Hopefully, an RNS will clarify this soon and we will also have some positive news about 38Z and the seismic survey that is being planned.
Wenglishboy – Investopedia states, "Single shareholders with as little as 5% to 10% ownership can push for seats on the board or enact changes at shareholder meetings by publicly lobbying for them, giving them control."
I take your point about SP being in a small range. I decided to buy before the publication of the report so as to avoid any mad rush to buy shares that might ensue from the publication of the company’s interim report, which I am hoping and expecting to be good. PHC will be a LTH for me, as the potential here appears to be very positive and this company adds some very needed diversification to my portfolio.
Hello. Just bought in at 6.42p but buy was shown as a sale.
IMO there seems to be a lot of potential here even when taking into account the possible cash raise that has been alluded:
The interim results published today are looking back from 30th June, so will not show any benefits of any recent Licensing agreements or discussions with other companies e.g. Ransom’s (RNS 6/09/2019) or the recent agreement with WashCo (RNS 10/09/2019).
The comment sin today’s Interim results are also very encouraging:
"The commercialisation of our products is now accelerating with a number of contracts in execution and in development in a number of countries including the two most populous.”
“Furthermore, Xeros expects the cash burn rate to fall further as it completes its migration to a licensing business.”