The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hello,
I find it hard to believe that the SP is not about to see a significant retracing. We all know there have been some setbacks i.e. The damage to cement liner and subsequent water ingress at 16aZ as well as an inevitable reduction in oil flow that at the time was suggested by PH: and unfortunately, lower than hoped for flow rates following the successful completion of drilling at Well 38. However, if we look back at “Block Energy Building Blocks” document we do IMHO seem to be making progress as outlined in their plan:
BLOCK have drilled a number of side-tracks; put in place storage facilities; secured rights over greater acreage; completed the planned 3D- Survey; secured an agreement for gas with BAGO and have been and are working to remedy the issues at 16aZ, which for all we know might be nearly completed. In the document Block also stated that, "Block is comfortably financed for four new horizontal side-tracks across its West Rustavi licence, to be drilled through 2019 and 2020." In view of this and that many of the large investors are still committed to BLOCK it seems to me that contrary to some comments made by others on this BB we are not likely to run out of money any time soon. We may be a bit behind schedule and the flow rates may not be those hoped for by some, but we are making progress as well as making some revenue; and we could in the near future hear some very positive news about the repairs to 16aZ and progress with WR51Z; as well as soon be generating revenues from the gas off take with BARGO and in addition also hear some very encouraging news from the analyses of the data from the completed 3D-Survey.
So despite the setbacks and the fact like many other investors on this BB I am showing a large paper loss at and have had some concerns, I am still remaining positive about the future and believe BLOCK will continue to make progress and hopefully we will soon hear some very positive news and also see an upturn in the SP.
Other’s views would be apricated.
GLA
Yes Jay12, I think you are correct in your assessments. When I spoke with Dan he suggested that the success of NXPOO2 would not only be life changing for patients, but also financially for himself and for shareholder.
As you say: We have a lot of potential value and if successful we are sure to attract major pharmas.
The only real concern I have is if Dan sells NFX too soon.
GLA
If my memory serves me correctly, when I spoke with Dan at the end of last summer, I got the impression that he was hoping to sell the company sometime during H2 2020 – It may have been wishful thinking but he seemed to me at least to be quite optimistic about the prospect. He also informed me at that time that although the Chinese payment hadn’t been paid, he would be surprised if the Chinese would not pay the rest of the money due, as they would then lose any benefits from the 500K they had already paid.
I am still holding shares at an average of c.9p and despite being a little underwater I am still feeling confident with my investment here, especially as further news is expected to drop soon, which IMO will see the SP back in double figures quite quickly.
GLA
Classhero – Hello,
I don’t comment on the boards very much but I do read them frequently and am grateful to others for their informative contributions.
FYI - AJ Bell Shares web page shows:
2020-01-10 14:07:56 11.07 820,000 Sell £90,774 O
Not sure this helps; it might show as a ‘sell’, but this could be incorrect for many reasons, e.g. MM manipulation etc.
GLA
Hello,
FWIW - I did contact Justin about the Q&A to ask him why we hadn’t, as yet, seen the promised Q&A page and if and when we would see it.
Justin replied on the 20th November to say that the "The FAQs will certainly be published as promised.." and went on ot add:
“ The operations update we published on 25 September answered several of the questions that had been earmarked for the FAQs. But we will still be putting it out to complement the next set of updates we have planned. You'll appreciate I can't give answers to the particular questions you raise between market updates - but please do look out for those updates, and the FAQs.”
GLA
Littelened I agree it was another good interview. Dan has for some time been looking towards a trade acquisition and my guess he is hoping to achieve this before the end of next year (if not sooner), by which time Nuformix will have developed a strong pharma portfolio and have a number of partners/ licences in place that will have provided considerable value to Nuformix. This is just my opinion but I feel very encouraged by Dan's comments over the last two recent interviews.
GLA
I topped up some more today (11:26 80,924 @5.19. to take advantage of the low price and reduce my weighted average to 9.56p.
I later emailed Justin and asked him if he could add anything more to the news that has already been released concerning Well 38.
Justin kindly replied by saying,
“[…] And you'll know that I can't say anything beyond our updates, but all is proceeding at WR-38Z in accordance with our latest update, published on 31 October. As you may have seen on social media, and on our website photo gallery, we have also been pressing ahead with the 3D seismic survey, which has also been progressing well.”
Of course others will read into Justin’s statement what they want to, but for my part I did not expect Justin to say very much (given the LSE rules). However, I am encouraged by Justin’s remarks “…but all is proceeding at WR-38Z in accordance with our latest update.” IMO if all is proceeding in accordance with the latest update then that suggests to me at least that progress with Well38 is going to plan.
Given that Well 38 was completed at the beginning of November I am hoping that we will all hear fairly soon what progress has been made and where we are at in terms of the gas off-take. Hopefully this update will see teh SP rise back to earlier days and many of us will see our patience and belief in BLOE rewarded. I certainly hope so.
GLA
Chrisrainy – Hello. I do not comment on BBs very much but read them most days. I agree with your view. have been invested in NFX for a while and have an average of circa 9p. I am one of the holders that you refer to who has seen the SP go above 14p and below 6p but have not sold any shares despite this; it took time to accumulate my holding and like you I wouldn’t want to be out of this stock when the SP soars, which I believe will happen. When I spoke with Dan a few months ago (when the SP had dropped, and I was slightly concerned) Dan reassured me my investment was sound and he appeared very optimistic about the future. To some my belief in Dan might be considered naive but I do not see any reason for not believing him. Also, as much as I would like to see the outstanding payments for NXP001 materialise it is NXP002 that is going to be the main revenue source Nuformix and the recent changes in Chinese law regarding medical trials are very encouraging.
GLA
China's DAL- I am not a medical person or a lawyer but IMO the subtext to this new law is that there are growing number of medical problems occurring in China and the Chinese government do not want their people to experience delays in receiving treatments that have the potential to improve or save their lives. Therefore, the Chinese government is now prepared to be more lenient in authorising new treatments for certain types of medical issues especially those involving pediatric and orphan drugs, but requires Marketing Authorization Holders (MAH) to carry out the appropriate due diligence IRO of the treatments to be used; and that these treatments must be held to have a better than 50% likelihood of success, otherwise the authorising MAH might have some difficult questions to answer later. The new law also requires foreign pharmaceutical companies to appoint a legal agent in China, who will be required to assume the same regulatory obligations and liability as the foreign marketing authorization holder.
So it would seem that under this new law people suffering from certain illnesses, such as cancer, will be able to be prescribed new drug treatments that may not have completed all the stages of testing previously required prior to the passing of the new law. Consequntly they may not have to wait as long as before, to be able to try new drugs that could save their lives.
Interesting facts in respect of people suffering for cancer in China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1633419/chinas-cancer-survival-rate-just-half-us-new-study-finds
“The bulk of cancer patients in China are afflicted by cancers of the lung, liver, stomach and pancreas.”
“In China about 3.12 million people a year – or 8,550 people a day – are diagnosed with cancer, official statistics show. The prevalence of all types of cancer on the mainland was 285.91 cases for every 100,000 people in 2009 – a rate which has doubled over the past two decades. The death rate from cancer was 180.54 per 100,000 people, much higher than in the 1980s, according to a 2012 report.”
““The five-year survival rate of all cancers in China is 30.9 per cent - compared to 66 per cent in the US. […] The survival rate of lung and liver cancer was even lower, at 16.1 per cent and 10.1 per cent respectively.”
“[The new changes to the law could potentially result in a convergence of the bifurcated pathways and enable Chinese MAHs to work with overseas CMOs. Likewise, foreign MAHs may also choose to work with CMOs in China and restructure their supply chains. If such theses become true, foreign companies will more likely transact with Chinese companies to divest their product portfolios or localize the production of their assets in China’
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/china-s-legislature-passes-the-new-drug-83004/
There is an obvious need for the Chinese authorities to try somethign to cange the current sittuation.
The above are just my views and I am happy to be corrected.
DYR GLA
Cadbury and Volmer - Thanks for reply and for reminding me about Woodford holding.
GLA
Hello,
Yes it is weird.
I have searched the web and the share mag sites etc and can't see any reason for the today's drop.
Is this just a tree shake or have I missed something?
GLA
Hellp Squirrel26 - I have a small investment here 500K at 0.35 so am presently showing a paper loss.
Other PIs on here will have a lot more knowledge than myself about this company. However , for what it is worth here are some links that you might find helpful and which might arguably suggets some optism for the future of the company.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6344497/Great-Western-Mining-encounters-gold-copper-at-Australian-project
https://www.ii.co.uk/news/great-western-mining-encouraged-by-exploration-results-at-m8-al1564763371600992500
GLA
Hello nomlungu and Interesting - Thank you for your comments.
GLA
Chrishutch - I haven't be able to like a post for days either from ipad or desktop.
GLA
I am only recently invested in PHC, but should be very grateful for others views on today's RNS. I appreciate that USA farmers have had a quite a bit of a time of lately, but I had hoped PHC's revenues would have been higher. On a positive note it would seem the company is confident going forward and believe that revenues will increase by end of H2.
Current trading and outlook
" The Board remains confident about the prospects for building a growing, profitable Commercial business, as sales of Harpin ??ß continue to increase. We anticipate a strong second half of 2019. We are confident of achieving material revenue growth in 2019 despite macro-level market-driven challenges, although revenue will be slightly lower than previous expectations.
Preparations for the first launches of PHC279 are progressing to plan, with further PREtec peptides following. The medium term prospects for PREtec peptides, in markets worth more than $5 billion, are very exciting.
The Board has reviewed the Company's cash position and concluded that we are able to achieve cash breakeven within existing cash resources. The Board will take whatever steps are necessary, including by reducing cash expenses, to achieve that."
GLA