The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
If any of you has past experience of placings open to private investors, draw on it now and don't worry, be happy. Here's some of mine : Eden this February, placing was 6p and in the days before those became tradeable but after people had committed it fell to 5.5p to buy, 4.8 to sell. Hurricane about 3 years ago had a placing at 33p and it fells just before those became tradeable to 30p. You should have heard the howls. Both were above the placing prices within one week of when those became tradeable, and the howlers stopped howling. I patiently owned both shares across those times. ODX should soon have the RTC approval by PHE, and I suppose UK approval of the Mologic antibody test (where are with that ? Is it true that NHS is only using the notoriously inaccurate Abbott test ? Is the Mologic antibody test approved for retail/corporate use in GB and if it is then why not NHS ?) and sales figures from India and other governances of the Mologic antibody test, plus more overseas approvals of Mologic antibody test and RTC antibody test (which is presumably for overseas sale too ... they said as much).
I'm optimistic (about ODX, and across this year about Eden; definitely not about HUR which seems to have an almost endless reservoir of bad luck !!).
>>There's a doc on ODX website that gives you all the details.
- oh no there isn't ! The doc under shareholder info is the 22nd June one, saying you can apply for extra shares at ODX's discretion (you may be scaled back) and the 1 in 20 shares. There is no doc saying how many extra shares for a given application, anybody got. Did you understand the OP's question ??
I never saw such a frothy rise out of such a modest RNS !
The basics are good. Cash about same as market cap plus whatever the Aoka Mizu is worth second hand, that would support a share price of 12p if liquidated today. It's like a negative value on the field. It will go up a lot if things are good. But on reflection 4p would be a bit nuts if everything went wrong. The parts are worth more than that.
You say the choice is 5p or 12p. Perhaps a little bit of confirmation bias there. Perhaps more like, it could be 4p or it could be 8p. It's a binary bet now. I hate to admit that. If we can't flow above 12k barrels/day and they state that it mussed up at 14k+, or any more issues at all, and it's not good. But maybe they can fix it and get both wells working (at $40+/barrel, to boot). I hope so, as I am still in !
Why do people post here as if the share prices of stocks, especially AIM-listed stocks, were rational, and driven by a load of people's fundamental analysis ? It's more sentiment and chase-me-tail than anything. ITM power was 360p not so very many days ago, now it's 228p. I can "rationalise" a reason for the lower value but not for the higher one; luckily I have not been in it as it fell. Nothing has changed since HUR was 8.5p and even more. We wait to hear from the new CEO; I think from past form she'll be fine; also I think the CEO is over-rated at single-cause narrow-bandwidth firms like this; the decisions they make are generally "obvious" ones for them to make as to the firm's next step. I don't think Tricey did anything wrong, or mismanaged. We wait to hear if the flow rate of our one remaining well can be upped to 14,000 barrels a day without issue and how the water cut develops. I'm optimistic but time will tell. I hope it doesn't take too long to test and discern, but I'm not looking to sell any time soon so I don't care and would rather they got it right and were sure. The market hates uncertainty and is very short term, especially at the moment when there is volatility all over the market to chase to make money, and the market derates share prices perhaps too much for a given level of uncertainty. I've used that theory before, buying NG just ahead of a price control settlement, or just the day before a general election, and it has always shot up because even for a "big" share like that, the market was pricing in the worst case, rather than the best. I believe it will prove this way in relation to the current Hur share price, with an RNS one day - don't know when - very soon, not so soon - who knows. But if people want to use the money for something else, just sell and do so; it's fine.
I hear of excellent progress on the oxford/astra Zeneca vaccine, for September, by the way.
That "national scandal if someone is shown to have caught it in a cinema" scenario doesn't make sense because you can never tell where you caught the virus, and even if you think you know, that won't serve as proof to others. However, a plane is a particularly enclosed space with vigorously recirculating air (and the filter normally bypassed to save money according to my cousin, a pilot), so I think if a number of people (just one would be really boring) catch it it would be in a plane; there is a demonstrable log of who was on the plane. I won't be flying until vaccinated.
He just said if the virus kicks off again and we need more social isolation, the government will support people in that "including via an enhanced digital application". I think that is probably deliberately vague as they are now unsure if a track and trace app will ever come to pass. I see that on Google account under services there is a new thing I didn't ask for or see going on "covid19 exposure notifications". They had already ticked it for me. It doesn't do anything unless there is an app for it to work with.
Should be about due for more news on one of our product lines, existing and pipeline awaiting approvals plus the sustaine R&D JV. Which will it be first ? Will we finally have a wet late summer in France and Portugal ? When next EU approval for Cedroz, and when will the temporary ones mature into permanent ? Will we find out this summer how good mevalone is at extending the storage life of apples ? And will anyone ever post much about Eden on LSE, or does AVCT remain the prime board for this share ??
Oh lawks, UKOG is almost completely dead now at 300 barrels a day, hardly enough to pay Steve Sanderson's pay package, utterly silent on PEDL143 and all the rest. Dead company. SOUND ... to think it was once over 90p. You mentioned some bad ones there. But you snuck in Syn on your list of evident, patent, gross failures. Home trials of their interferon form is an interesting move. It could easily come to nothing though, especially if s'oton hospital trial results are no good. Avacta amazing RNS this morning, I thought, possibility of stopping covid spreading by an anti-body like effect from those affimers. And yet still far below its lows. Odd business these AIM shares. CTEA, I have so little hope left now. And I haven't even sold it yet so if I thought these posts influential I wouldn't say !!! But they don't make any difference so we can say what we like.
Well I hope you are right as I'll be selling my tiny holding regardless of price (albeit at the optimal time...), as long term I don't believe this stock has a future. But please do buy lots tomorrow, it'll help me sell ! Even an RNS wouldn't inspire me with much hope now
And she added, if you mean BBC1 just now, that the government now talks of not having track and trace at all, she said they have "dialled back" from that and speak more of a comfort app that gives you medical advice at home ... not a track and trace app at all. Nice spin there. No track and trace app will be ready in time ... and the world moves on.
Oh, don't worry, I was certain Avacta was daft at 102p earlier this week and yesterday, before today's RNS, suddenly 120p. I was sure AML was daft at 42p, bought loads, not long after it was 60p+. I bought Tullow when it was 22.5p and heavily shorted, it did really well - look at it now. Hurricane at 6.5p and stuff is just for now. Look at it again next week. For what it's worth Cine is daftly-low too. Check me out on that in a week
Not entirely "dreaming" - Nano and Samsung mutually agreed the delay and are clearly talking about something. It may not take until August to agree a settlement. For me, it's not a dream, it's a fairly prompt and reasonable sort of hope. Also GO STMicroelectronics deal.
Long term we are good. Short term £1.5b market cap for no profits yet is getting toppy to me, and I hate it when directors sell, it just doesn't look good for them do do that. But ITM has so many R&D projects that as long as hydrogen stays in fashion in LA and government policy circles, it's all good. They don't all have to come good. However I am warier than before about having a big holding ITM, and have trimmed it. I can buy the big holding later, cheaper, I dare guess.
There was an 8% short on tullow oil when it was 22p a week ago. I bought it that Friday and Monday it opened 24p and in no time was over 30p. You get lots of negative comments on chat rooms for the relevant share but they can't make their own bet come home and it doesn't seem to stop the share rising. Just means they lose money. Who cares?
The response Cineplex gave to Reuters in the article seems whiney and subjective. This, coming at it a different way, also tends to convey that they can't stop Cineworld dropping the deal ... The bluster looks face saving.
You should read a few actual court cases around interpretation. You speak in pointless generalities. Don't believe you deal in interpretation of contracts at all. We haven't seen the Cineworld Cineplex heads of terms (if that is what it is), but if it lists a debt threshold re Cineplex (and defines how debt is measured, too, ideally) as a FM or break clause, and if the debt can be shown to exceed the threshold, then all is well for Cineworld. I suspect your motive is to spread uncertainty. For my part I bought more cine yesterday as it seemed low in what I think should be its current cycle. I believe one thing that has been holding it back has been the uncertainty around the clearly very expensive and unreasonable Cineplex deal. I didn't know if there was a clause that would allow Cineworld to walk away (at least for now; I suspect Cineplex shareholders might want Cineplex to renegotiate at a far lower price, but who knows). Now that there appears to be such a clause, I am pleased, as that dead weight on our share price, depressing it in recent months (assuming investors are rational), will be gone. Time will tell of course. I think the threat of legal action by Cineplex and Cineworld's counter threat of possible action against Cineplex is just face-saving bluster and will be seen to come to nothing.
There is in this case a specific debt related threshold. Force majeure is defined contract by contract, and is not left wide open for interpretation. There has just this week been a judicial review and two Ofgem determinations on what comprises force majeure in the context of cable failure in a cable to Gwynt Y Mor offshore wind farm, as well as a direct court case between RWE and the offshore cable owner ("OFTO") about it. That case hinged on the definition of force majeure in the STC industry code, which as well as insurrection, terrorism and act of war, added some rather easier stuff like "anything resulting in damages that the OFTO couldn't reasonably have foreseen". I have read tonnes of force majeure clauses in my time, there are frequently numerous things listed that would comprise FM and some are genuinely extreme but some are not really that unlikely. The debt threshold trigger on the cineplex/Cineworld deal would have seemed quite unlikely when the two firms signed the deal, yet has apparently happened because covid, an unlikely event (though I think "act of God" is a little blasphemous), came to pass. I think you are disingenuously trying to misportray FM clauses to create uncertainty and fear on this board. Alternatively you are just ignorant, and don't deal in commercial contracts.