The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
scotty, tav has already told you what he thinks. Your opinion is worthless here because you continue to say that everything is great even though the sp moves down every day. You are disconnected from reality and no one trusts you.
The fact is that the downward trend is steepening. We are likely heading towards capitulation; the analysts will be rushing out their revised forecasts and the institutions will be publishing their sell-off of easy shares. Then we will see the rug well and truly pulled from under the sp. Maybe this afternoon, maybe next week, maybe straight after the results on the 30th, but soon.
scotty, 10 days red is not 'a dip'. It's a trend and we will soon be in freefall when shareholder capitulate en masse. Smithy and I have been telling you this for weeks. Wake up and smell that European cafe.
60p moves on this share can go both ways, and the worsening situation in Europe for covid means that we are likely to see big moves down from here. The support level has already broken and we could soon be in freefall down to £4 and below. GLA and DYOR.
Volume is well up today; institutional holders are likely to be dumping this share. If you want to go long on easy, it might be wiser to see the update with the full results for last year before making a decision. Results are out on the 30th (11 days time). GLA.
Everyone knows what the message will be from easy in a fortnight when the results come out - we lost money last year and we're now losing money again because of all the EU lockdowns and low passenger numbers. Cancellations are up, bookings have gone backwards again. Cashburn will be the metric to watch again. The sp will probably drop dramatically on the day. We will likely be at £4 next week. Just remember that mine and smithy's predictions have been the only ones that are right so far on this board.
Very few families will be travelling abroad for a break. If you've got children and one of them tests positive before they fly back to the UK, what are you going to do? You'll have to quarantine with them, miss getting back to work, and have the torture of 'house arrest' with a sick child away from home. Then you'll pick up the infection yourself and still not be able to fly at the end of quarantine. Which parents are willing to risk this situation? Answer - very few.
People on this thread seem preoccupied with calling each other names and are losing sight of some key facts. Easy's shareprice still hasn't fallen very much and has a lot further to fall before it reflects the business situation. £5.50 today is the same as £11 back in 2019, just 26% below its peak of £15 in Jan 2020. There ARE TWICE AS MANY SHARES NOW DUE TO TWO RIGHTS ISSUES. Anyone thinking the shareprice is low because they're looking at the one year chart is failing to account for all the additional shares. Also, unlike in 2019, easy now has massive debt, no dividends, and is facing more lockdowns as we go into winter. The UK is on the redlist for most countries. This share won't be 'cheap' until it gets to £2.
I know you can hear me falling-to-earthman, especially on the landing page before you login. I just want to remind you of a few things. Firstly, this forum is for private investors, not wealthy insider-traders. People here want to be able to see through the lies of the investment 'experts' and even the 'half-truths' of the company management itself, who would prefer for investors to keep their money invested in a business despite its non-profit-making status. Managers tend to get sacked when shares don't perform.
You, northscot, have made many hopelessly optimistic predictions, flying in the face of the obvious. You said the sp would be 700p by the end of October, and last week you said that the poor finish set this share up for a nice recovery this week. Both predictions massively off target. It's time for you to stop trying to mislead private investors. This share is going only one-way. Step back and let people make their own informed decisions based on FACTS, not your endless ramping.
Thanks dumped. But your insult is silly. The stats are facts. There are twice as many shares now as there were in 2019. Anyone looking at the chart might think that the sp is at a low, but this is misleading; the market capitalisation of the business is what counts (shareprice multiplied by the number of shares) so my point remains. Easyjet has a market cap of about £4.5bn but will only earn a much smaller profit compared to pre-covid, due to higher costs and loss of many business travellers. Also, the business will need to pay down its debt to a manageable level before it can resume dividends. One analyst changed its view this week. The others will soon follow when the numbers come out at the end of the month.
smithy, it's entirely possible that when the significance of the pfizer announcement has been widely understood, there could be some irrational exuberance on airline shares. The shareprice might go anywhere in the interim, but a few fundamentals will ultimately drag the sp back to earth. Easyjet has high debt and has permanently lost a lot of business travel because cheaper more efficient online meetings will replace many (but not all) in-person meetings. Environmental considerations will also be a drag on travel, though it's anybody's guess how big. The shareprice is still very high; at £6 it's effectively the same as £12 in 2019, just 20% under the £15 peak hit in January 2020, which doesn't reflect the damage done to the business or the lower earning potential for the company. However, it could go higher. I anticipate the results at the end of this month will be a sobering reminder of the true state of the business and will bring the sp down to something more realistic.
Pfizer has just announced that it will make its formula for its new anti-viral (anti-covid) pill available to 95 countries license free. There are a few hurdles to get over first such as finishing a large-scale phase-3 trial and getting regulatory approval. Also, a few large countries are still left out of the agreement (eg Brazil), but these things will doubtless get sorted over coming weeks and months. The key facts are this; the Pfizer anti-viral pill will relegate Covid-19 from being a potentially fatal disease to being a very treatable, mostly non-serious illness. A five-day course of tablets will enable practically anyone to get over the illness quickly. All of the current precautions (vaccines, masks, social distancing, covid-passports etc) will ultimately be able to be dispensed with. Covid will become about as serious as the common cold. It's still many months away but Pfizer has effectively called the end of the global pandemic.
Not only will the revenue across the group be well down on 2019, costs will be much higher. Profit is likely to be very small for the last quarter or non-existent imv, due to lower market volume and cost pressure. Btw, I see the rampers on here are using phrases like 'rinse and repeat' to suggest that they are actually selling easyjet at various times. The direction of travel for the shareprice seems to be established now, so they should be careful trying to 'trade' it.
The chart looks like it has broken through the support and can now fall through to £4. People here trying to catch a falling knife risk losing their fingers.
IAG's results confirm the outlook for easyjet today. IAG lost in this last quarter almost half a billion euros and commented that long haul was recovering faster than shorthaul.
There will be no fast recovery for easy. Only a long slog for many years trying to pay down the debt. The part which I find the most interesting is IAG's comment that there are 'early signs' of a recovery in business travel. My guess is that those 'early signs' are all the signs that there are ever going to be. The reduction in business travel, due to everyone getting comfortable with online meetings and managers seeing the massive savings on travel and accommodation, is going to be the crucial change which pulls a cornerstone from all airlines' profitability. There is no recognition so far from the industry that this is being faced up to. Airline management is in denial.
Tourism will return, there will be a surge, then a lull as it fades, and then a slow climb over a year or three back to pre-pandemic levels, but business travel will not return to anything like the same levels. As a result, easyjet's profits will be a fraction of past profits. A shareprice of even £4 will likely be miles higher than the profits can justify. A realistic price earnings ratio might see a share price below £2 eventually. But we have many stages of grief to get through before that happens. First step will be easy's own reporting at the end of this month. Buckle up for £4.
Comment from people actually in the industry which might be useful for investors on this board is being drowned out by the peurile postings from northscot, attacking anyone who attempts to discuss actual issues and credible prospects for easyjet. The following Heathrow news story shows just how far the aviation is behind in terms of returning to 'normality'.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59047792
The boss of Heathrow Airport has warned air traffic may not recover completely until at least 2026 despite signs of huge pent up demand for travel. John Holland-Kaye told the BBC that Britain's busiest airport was still making losses even though international travel rules were easing.
He also hit back at the aviation regulator for limiting a rise in what it charges airlines for using Heathrow. Airlines at Heathrow make a good return and investors want the same, he said.
Mr Holland-Kaye said the airport was still only seeing passenger traffic at around 45% of 2019 levels. "It's definitely been a tough 18 months but we are starting to see the recovery coming through," he told the BBC's Today programme.
"Now all we need to see is stability in the travel rules, so people are confident of what we need to do and the airlines can build it into their systems." The airport has faced criticism about long queues and its ability to cope with a growth in passengers. But he said: "We are hiring people right now to make sure that across the airport we can meet the demand that is starting to come through.
"We're still at around 40% to 45% of the levels even on the busiest days of where we were back in 2019."
The recovery continues but costs are high and easy's debt is at record levels. This business once made £300m+ annually but with the loss of business customers (due to increased use of skype/zoom and pressure on business expenses generally) and higher charges from airports and fuel costs, what will be the annual level of profit when easy eventually gets back to 'normality'. My guess is that we are at least a year away from breakeven and then two years from now maybe half the profits that easy used to make (ie £150m). On a price/earnings basis that might suggest the market cap for the business could be 10-15 times earnings AFTER easy has proven it can get there. So maybe £4 in two years time. In the meantime, a slow decline to below that level.
.... However, Stifel also said its longer-term strategic/structural concerns remain. "We still expect structural margin pressure and negative free cash flow for years to come due to upside pressure on costs and downside pressure on yields at the same time," it said.
Exactly what I've been saying.
A few people on here are telling smithy to shut up. Northscot is the one who needs to stop posting - of the two of them, at least smithy is right! The people posting unrealistically optimistic rubbish on here are attempting to mislead private investors. A more honest conversation would involve actual facts instead of mindless insults and stupid comments like 'keep the faith' and 'up, up and away' and 'lol' and '700p by the end of the week'. Meanwhile the shareprice continues downward, now into the £5s with a trajectory which suggests it'll soon be in the £4s.
It should be OBVIOUS to everyone from the price action over the last few weeks that this share is heading down in a determined manner. Easyjet have announced new losses of over a billion and when the annual results are out in six weeks time, the full numbers will cause another drop in the sp. In the meantime, as I and others have predicted on here, the covid situation is getting worse going into winter. People taking comfort from the govt's announcement this evening should also remember how often govt has reversed its decisions.
Germany is seeing a similar spike in infections since its climate is closer to the UK's - as we go into winter, the colder weather will cause infections and deaths to increase in France and Spain. Many foreign governments will react and reimpose more restrictions. The action from Morocco today is an advance warning of things to come. Funny that northscot says that it doesn't matter because easyjet isn't making any money on that route. How does he know? And what other routes is easy not making money on? All of them? Most of them? The real relevance of the Morocco ban is that it means that other governments don't have to 'go first' in reimposing travel restrictions, and the UK's horrendous case count means that we are particularly vulnerable to 'red-listing' by other govts. If another country follows Morocco's example of banning UK travellers, the easyjet shareprice will take a massive dive. It could easily happen this month, but if it doesn't, just wait til we are at record-breaking case number in December.
On account of the massive number of posts on this thread, I may repost this message. GLA and DYOR.
From the Guardian reporting today:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/20/morocco-to-ban-flights-to-and-from-uk-over-rising-covid-rates
On Tuesday, the UK reported its highest number of Covid deaths for seven months, with 223 recorded within 28 days of a positive test. The daily death rate, by date reported, has not been as high since 9 March, while the toll was greater than on the same day last year, shortly before the prime minister felt the situation sufficiently grave to impose a one-month lockdown in England.
There have been calls for some control measures to be introduced, with the UK’s weekly rates of new cases reported to be among the highest in the world. Some scientists and health experts have said ministers should activate the “plan B” winter measures.
northscot continuing to mislead. This constant chant of 'more buys than sells' is complete rubbish. IF there's a massive buy, there has to be massive selling too. You can't have one without the other. The overriding fact however is that there is more selling pressure, and that's why the shareprice is going down; sellers are looking to get out of this share and market makers are offering them lower prices, in order to achieve a corresponding buy. Tomorrow will almost certainly continue the now established downward trend.