The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I doubt there'll be much of lift from any change to the red-list; first of all, the countries on it are all in Africa and northpot was very keen to tell us that easyjet doesn't fly there. Second, the rising death rate and case numbers will overshadow that news. And thirdly, the US market is going to drag the ftse down. The US is about to get switched on to the threat of over-filled hospitals from people with omicron. There may be quite a strong sell-off this week. GLA and DYOR and don't listen to children spouting nonsense on free chatboards.
One simple question to northspotty kid. Why do you want me to move on? I thought you had me filtered? Am I somehow interfering in your project to con as many people as possible into buying into a loss-making airline during the world's worst pandemic of modern times?
Scrapping the red-list? Yep, that's gonna make a whole ant-hill of difference. Do you think holidaymakers will be flocking to visit our septic isle now that omicron is raging here? And will our European neighbours welcome Brits, now that so many are riddled with disease? I doubt it. We are on a constant descent approach to £4.00. Going abroad is the last hing on most people's minds for the next few months. That means that Q1 and Q2 are written off for easy. Q3 is not looking good either now. GLA and DYOR!!
Actually no, northspot, you see them all the time - probably even in your sleep. A pity you can't read an annual report and gather good quality info; if you did, maybe you wouldn't spend all of your time trying to con investors into buying into a loss-making airline during the worst global pandemic since commercial aviation began.
Huge pent-up demand for avoiding travel to a locked-down country (ie much of Europe).
I'll let the share price do the talking. Read my past posts if you want to know WHY easyjet is tanking again. easyjet will rise on good news, but there will be a long wait for that good news, I suspect, and the rise will not match the falls. Hello again 400s. Sub-£4 coming soon (almost certainly when the Q1 trading update comes, but possibly before). GLA and DYOR.
@treacle, I suggest you talk to a virologist to understand what is going on because your posts suggest that you don't understand the implications right now.
As for easyjet, no scaremongering is necessary - the conditions for air travel continue to deteriorate, as do the prospects for the company in the short-term and the medium-term. On Monday all travellers to the US have to show a negative test within 24 hours of a flight. Other countries may follow that example. As the hurdles for flying get more and more challenging, more people will avoid flying.
It's necessary for potential easyjet investors to be aware of the current situation if they are to avoid losing money. Currently, I consider easyjet to be uninvestable. However, that will not always be the case. The right moment might be after a third rights issue to tackle the mounting debt, and when the pandemic abates (it will not last forever). Those two conditions are probably a long way off for the moment.
In the meantime, the shareprice is likely to continue to decline, especially since it is NOWHERE NEAR DISTRESSED LEVEL. Easyjet is massively overvalued in terms of its market cap, and the continued denial of this situation on this board makes it necessary for me to warn others. There is no scaremongering - just a simple statement of the facts to counter unbridled ramping. My OPINION, is that this share will eventually get to somewhere below £3 to reflect easy's realistic earnings potential. At that point I might consider investing.
GLA and DYOR!! I can't emphasise that last part enough since so many people here seem to trade exclusively on 'going to the moon' and other ridiculous statements.
@treacle, you clearly haven't understood anything about the range of predictions for omicron in the UK and although we all hope that omicron is mild for EVERYONE (which is very unlikely, according to scientists and clinicians) it will still fill up our hospitals and require a response in terms of public restrictions. Also, it's too early to tell what the real-world impact will be on individual health AND it's too early to tell whether omicron provides immunity from other variants - a big problem with omicron is that it re-infects people who've already had the delta variant.
The other aspect which has NOT GONE AWAY is that delta continues to kill people by the thousand throughout Europe and scientists and clinicians are saying that contracting both strains at the same time is likely to cause very serious illness. All of this is very bad news for easyjet, whichever way you look at it. Get real, stop ramping this share to naive investors, DYOR and GLA.
Trends do change, but his one hasn't. A short bounce after a sharp drop, but continuing down again and that drop is pointing the way forward, further down. There is nothing to suggest that the future is rosy for easyjet and the share price will continue to respond downwards because of that. Here's the verdict from Heathrow Airport's management (and they are rather more likely to know than you avocet):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-10/heathrow-offers-bleak-outlook-as-omicron-halts-long-haul-rebound
London’s Heathrow airport said passenger numbers are likely to recover to barely half of pre-Covid levels next year as the pandemic continues to ravage long-haul travel markets.
The number of travelers in 2022 is likely to reach 45 million, Heathrow said in a statement Friday. That compares with a record 81 million in 2019, when the hub ranked as Europe’s busiest.
Also, I have already proven that your faith in 'analysts' is completely misplaced. NONE of them have predicted easy's fall since the rights issue by almost 30%. When will you learn that so-called 'analysts' are merely stooges attempting to drum up business for their brokerages? I recommend that everyone 'checks-out' the 'majo analysts' as you suggest and then look at their history. Those 'analysts' will be very grateful if you funnel your money into easyjet so that others can get out! GLA and do some proper research so that you don't fall for the nonsense which so many people spout about this share. The trend, btw, is down. Nothing is happening to change that.
@avocet, that is a facile response, similar to your one earlier about Omicron. The tragedy of covid is that once you've had it, you can still get it again and pass it onto others who haven't, meaning that bar for achieving herd immunity is practically unachievable.
Regarding brand - people do not care about brand at the budget end. Cheapest wins. Don't forget Stelios started easy with one aeroplane as did Richard Branson with one leased airliner when he started Virgin Atlantic. There will eventually be a massive bun fight for customers WHEN they return, but that will not be for a long time.
Btw @limpingalong, Flybe is back in business, and that is also an indication of the future market. When the recovery eventually gets going (maybe a year from now), easyjet will not only have to slug it out with Ryanair and Whizz (both aggressively grabbing market share) because it's almost certain that new competitors will emerge to snatch-away any 'pent-up demand', unencumbered by the large debts which easy has racked up during the pandemic.
The key missing segment though, remains business travel. Imv, business travel will NEVER return to 2019 levels now that companies have discovered the huge savings that can be made from online meetings.
My guess is that we are going much, much lower and will struggle to get back up for many years unless there's a third rights issue next year to reduce easyjet's mounting debts (currently around a billion and growing larger with every day of the pandemic). GLA and DYOR.
A range of outcomes is being modelled, but neither look good. I think it's pretty obvious that all over Europe, people are more likely to be hunkering down than going on holiday (ie, not positive for easyjet). I've dropped the two predictions (best and worst case) down below. GLA and stay well.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-could-cause-between-25-000-and-75-000-deaths-in-england-without-tougher-restrictions-experts-12492584
New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) used experimental data to look at how Omicron may spread as the country heads into 2022.
BEST CASE:
Under the best-case scenario, the variant could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospitalisations and 24,700 deaths between 1 December 2021 and 30 April 2022, the projection suggests.
The optimistic scenario is one where Omicron's immunity escape is low and boosters prove highly effective.
WORST CASE:
Under the worst-case scenario (high immune escape and lower effectiveness of boosters), if no additional control measures are taken, there could be 492,000 hospitalisations and 74,800 deaths.
Stronger measures may be required
In this scenario, the experts estimate that stronger measures may be required to keep the number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.
2022 will most definitely NOT be a 'bumper year' because Q1 has already been destroyed by omicron. Easy was only planning on flying 60% of its capacity in Q1 anyway (FACT) and it pulled its guidance update (FACT) when it released the full-year results. Also, bookings were not 'dramatically ahead' - the words actually used were 'with increasing summer demand with Q422 capacity expected to be close to FY'19 levels.' (FACT). That was BEFORE omicron landed (FACT) and holiday operators are now reporting lower bookings (FACT) because of omicron AND delta. If bookings a few months ago were ahead of where they were at the same period in 2019, they will most certainly be behind again now.
Last week over two thousand people died with covid in Poland (FACT), a country with approximately HALF the UK's population. Covid is raging across Europe where many countries have travel restrictions and have cancelled public events (FACT) and it will take many months and possibly a year or two to recover.
Easyjet is, on those FACTS massively overvalued right now. In the last six months of the full year easy lost another £400m (FACT) and since it was flying 58% of its capacity for much of that period, the likelihood is that it is losing money still. We will see when the trading updates is released in January. GLA and do some research instead of going with your 'feelings' because then you might lose less money (opinion).
For all the reasons that I've given today and on other days, it's clearly 'no' until the next rights issue tackles the debt (again) by which time the shareprice will be somewhere around £2. If any of the rampers here can clearly articulate why easyjet can pay back its debt and pay a dividend in less that four years, I'd love to hear it. Even when easy starts making money, four years is likely to be the kind of timeframe that it'll take to clear debt and return to dividends unless there's another cash raise. Now, make the case. But for the rest of today, your on your own with your delusions.
But again, ftse12, YOU cannot make the bull case for easyjet, which I find REALLY ODD, since you seem so keen on easy. People here simply cannot understand basic arithmetic when they look at the sharechart - there are now TWICE AS MANY SHARES AS THERE WERE IN 2019. £7.50 today would be like £15 on the sharechart back in January 2020 when easyjet HAD NO PROBLEMS. Now easy has MASSIVE DEBT and IS NOT MAKING A PROFIT currently. You lot need to face facts and stop being so sentimental about easy. That's what the founder did - Stelios wouldn't even back the rights issue.
One other thing, if northscot believed what he was saying, he wouldn't then claim to have sold out of easyjet everytime the sp went up a tick.
No limping. The question you have to ask yourself is - is easyjet worth investing in and how long will it take to make a return and what size will that return be? The key aspect is easyjet's earning potential, not 'posters' on a chat board.
Again, limping, you have no answer to my argument other than to say 'I'm misguided'. I've given you solid reasons why easy will be a non-performing investment. What's the bull case? So far you and northscot don't seem to have one apart from the elusive pent-up demand, which WON'T compensate for lost business.
I talked to someone who travelled on a budget airline from the EU to London last week; she said 'never again' while testing is a requirement. It was stressful and expensive. Making the journey with children is ten times more stressful. Easy will come back, but it won't double, and it's going to take a long time.
Northscot, you have no answer to my argument, only insults. That makes you a shameless ramper imv. You are a blight on this board, posting dozens of silly messages which do nothing to increase the understanding of private investors here. This board is supposed to HELP investors, not hinder them.