RE: Simply wall street’s analysts version of event fyi6 May 2026 13:23
Cont :Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.13% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.22%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
ASX:GGP Future EPS Growth as at Apr 2026
ASX:GGP Future EPS Growth as at Apr 2026
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?
Successful reserve conversion and further resource growth at Telfer and West Dome underground, helped by the record 240,000 meter drilling program that management is already considering extending to about 360,000 meters into FY27, could support a longer mine life and higher quality ore feed than currently assumed, which may support higher long term revenue and earnings.
Havieron’s progress through key approvals, including receipt of the Commonwealth EPBC environmental approval and ongoing early works, along with the stated aim to use Havieron and West Dome underground as high grade underground feed into the Telfer mill, could eventually improve the head grade mix and lift group net margins and earnings.
The decision to pursue multiple higher grade underground options such as West Dome underground, the vertical stockwork corridor and potential Main Dome underground extensions, together with existing hoist capacity of more than 6 million tonnes per year, provides several paths to increase underground throughput over time, which could improve average grades and support revenue and earnings growth.
The company’s reported cash position of over A$1.2b with no debt and strong recent operating cash flow gives it flexibility to fund Havieron, Telfer life extension and potentially advance O'Callaghans, and if this capital is allocated effectively, it could support higher long term earnings and potentially widen net margins.
O'Callaghans sits in a metal that governments classify as critical and is described as one of the world’s largest high grade tungsten deposits, with prior work indicating a potential multi decade mine supplying a meaningful share of Western tungsten demand, and if Greatland converts this optionality into a sale, joint venture or development during a strong tungsten pricing period, it could add another source of revenue and earnings beyond what is implied in a flat share price view.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?
The analysts have a consensus price target of A$14.43 for Greatland Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$19.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$8.3.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be A$2.2 billion, earnings will come to A$526.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
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