The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Mark Barnaba, Clive Latcham, Jimmy Wilson , Elizabeth Gaines and Twiggy Forrest!!!
Not here to be mothballed IMHO. A pretty pricey & powerful pack to hold onto for peanuts! Except that they are NOT getting paid an awful lot as we know.....but being rewards and incentivised on KPIs ; so performance power....what does that tell you? Tells me there's more to this than being simply mothballed. Guess we will find out soon enough!
GLA!
Looking in I see a not very optimistic title thread so lets be more positive.
Wow almost at 8 p but a long way from the 12p still we used to moan at, but still heading in the right direction!
Could it be a combination of GDXJ 7 POG plus certainty over at least the takeover of Newcrest with one less box to tick off?
Probably, but also we will be heading towards more news as not long to go till Nov 6th and keys handed over. I can't imagine it will be too long before decisions come to light and that is what is keeping us at these levels imv.
MRE and Assays this calendar year; and maybe even some idea of what NEM intend to do with us,
If Sprott are right, they will buy us out, but I can't imagine for a price we will all hope for. (I'm looking for more than our current ATH!)or will they offload us and Telfer, which makes sense iwth our new board and SD chomping at the bit to build?
All speculation but exciting and nail-biting but never a dull moment!
Looking forward to being bored at 12p again before we move on up!!
Slowly slowly...hope it's all uphill from hereonin.
Cont:
company in the world would buy the Telfer Mine which would soon close next year with a huge reclamation liability facing them. The only buyer would be GGP which is the likely outcome here. That would see GGP try to become the next significant gold producer just like Northern Star and Evolution did 10 years ago.
GGP now has the management that could do that along with having Andrew Forrest as their biggest shareholder owning 8.5% of the shares in GGP. He built Australia’s biggest iron ore mining company called Fortescue so he very capable of directing the ship here. I’m certain that is why he got involved a year ago becoming their largest shareholder. One of the other GGP board members is a good friend of his and is formerly of Fortescue.
I think that Newmont should lower their standards and be happy with a smaller yet significant mine like Havieron because it is in a lower risk country which all miners are trying to do more and more. If Newmont is going to sell this one, they’ll likely sell the Brucejack Mine in Canada which also is not a tier one sized mine by their definition.
If Newmont does stay in the Havieron deal, I believe the first thing Newmont will do is to takeover GGP to tidy up the deal so they own 100% of this project so they don’t have to share the pie with a tiny little company that would be nothing more than a nuisance for Newmont to have to deal with.
Hopefully, we start to learn what is going to happen here soon.
This won’t be news for those of you who subscribe , as I do , to Sprott ; Rick Rules fund.
But if it’s of interest here’s the latest view to me on Havieron :
From Steve todurok at Sprott :
Company
Ranking
Comments
Greatland Gold plc (AIM:GGP)
4
My clients have been significant shareholders of GGP since they drilled their discovery hole in 2018 in their new Havieron gold-copper deposit in Australia so I follow the company closely by reading their newsreleases, talking with management regularly and visiting with them at conferences.
In my opinion, this is one of the most significant new gold discoveries made in the last number of years – especially when factoring in that it is situated in a low risk country that is very mining friendly.
As I’m sure you know, a big part of this story is that Newcrest has operated the nearby Telfer Mine for the last 40 years. It is bought and paid for and has about 1200 employees working at the mine site. Newcrest has told everyone that the mine is near it’s end and is scheduled to close around the end of next year. Big mining companies don’t like to shut big mines down because they have to lay all those people off then start the very costly process of reclaiming the mine site which costs tens of millions of dollars and can be ongoing for 20-30 years.
In the hopes of not having to shut that mine down, they try very hard to find a new nearby deposit that they can start mining running it through that existing mining complex.
In this case, Newcrest didn’t find one but rather Greatland Gold did. That is why Newcrest entered into a joint venture with GGP.
The gold-copper rock (ore) will be dug out the Havieron deposit and brought to surface then either put on big mining trucks or on a conveyor belt then transported to the Telfer Mine for processing.
At this time, we are all waiting to find out what Newmont does in regards to the Telfer Mine and the joint venture with GGP now that the Newcrest takeover has closed.
Newmont will cherry pick the mines and projects that they have just acquired from Newcrest. The mine they were mostly after is the Cadia Mine which is predominantly copper with gold. This mine will really boost Newmont’s copper production and gives Newmont Newcrest’s underground block caving expertise which is the way of the future for deeper copper mining. Newmont and Barrick Gold have both stated that they only want tier 1 mines which are mines that produce more than 500,000 ounces of gold per year. Ideally, they want mines that produce 1,000,000 ounces per year.
Newcrest has been indicating that the Havieron Mine would produce about 300,000 ounces per year which should be a good money maker but Newmont might just deem it to be to small for them. That could see Newmont try to sell the Telfer Mine and their interest in Havieron but the snag for them would be that GGP has a right of first refusal to buy Newmont’s 70% in Havieron if Newmont chooses t
Disagree where sentiment is concerned Ace.
Facts are key but sentiment appears to rule the roost here.
Anyway, they may or may not be inclined to look in. This board has taken a beating for obvious reasons!
ATB
Long time no hear guys! Any news from Oz itself on our ongoing progress would be welcomed?
Any closer to hand insights might be appreciated by UK shareholders amidst exciting but speed-bump ridden times atm
ATB
Panama
Well I won’t say this isn’t disappointing as it is another delay , in essence , but at least we’re being kept informed along the way : and large mining projects have large obstacles almost always , to overcome on the route to extraction.
With any luck this RNS letting us know of a delay , will be followed by some more uplifting RNSs in short order !
GLA!
Let's get to double digits before we start talking about a takeout price! Won't be in our hands unless a majority vote in any case, and I imagine after 3 years of being in the wilderness SP wise, there will be mixed views due to frustration.
Shaun's eye-watering comment would probably make 20ish p sound 'eye-watering ' from a crappy 6p stance...but I consider 20p to be the base-line for the platform to be built on if we don't get taken out.
A second discovery anytime soon would change the landscape completely. Lets hope for a tenement near Telfer! We have a few to choose from!
GLA!
Hi Zoros,
Loaded question at this point imho as the current SP sitting at 6p before a DTM/FCF/MRE and strategic direction of GGP post takeover of the giants, does not lend itself, i my view, to a fair valuation .
I think you are in the right region at 20 p ish if any such offer were even to come at this point, but I didn't invest for such an offer nor would I agree to it, if I had a vote.
I would rather set a longer term view to get full value.
At around 50 p plus it's worth pondering of course, but the likelihood of that at this stage, again IMHO is absolutely out of the question, as there are too many unknowns and we do not yet know future CAPEX in detail ,full potential, where we will be listed or what we will or will not own and we are not yet producing.
Therefore, much as I'd love a quick hike to paradise city of 50 p plus. It ain't gonna happen anytime soon...but might if Shaun builds his multi asset multi billion co. Too soon for this debate I think, unless foisted upon us.
Hoping not!
ATB
Therefore
I have watched the excellent interview with Don and Liam tho don’t have time to note the highlights I thought key atm. For what they’re worth.
Plus Liam did a great job ! Well done Liam.
But I do think it’s very interesting and it was very insightful.
Key takeaways were his repeated views of escalation to pog.
Long long term growth if we keep Hav
Another strike would make us.
So say all of us !
Main thing is he’s positive tho what happens next is key.
We all wait with bated breath.
GLA!
I liked Charles Archer's synopsis of GGP to date so much that after a monsoon-filled day of work stuff, I found it oddly soothing to read again.
This bit here echoes what some of us reason is of value to us albeit not obvious to some:
''Using August 2022 numbers where Havieron is worth $1.2 billion, Greatland would have had to find 70% of $1.2 billion ($840 million) to buy Newcrest’s share — and then more for Telfer as the processing plant is needed to make the investment case — both to process Telfer and Havieron ore, but to include spare capacity as well.
Newcrest invested $181.4 million in Telfer in 2021 to continue production until the end of 2023. It then invested a further $214 million to extend mine life to 2026 late last year. Telfer hosts the largest gold processing facility in Paterson province, and the project produced 407,550 ounces of gold in 2021-22. It still holds significant value, despite its age, and that processing facility could be put to better use.
Previously you were looking at least $1 billion for the two assets to be bought out in full — and now there is a $500-600 million figure — half of what was previously assumed. Hilariously, this would leave GGP’s 30% interest in Havieron at roughly the same value as the $220 million that three banking titans are prepared to lend it in debt.
It’s also worth noting that Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan has consistently argued that Telfer and Havieron do not make sense in the wider conglomerate’s portfolio as it is processing below capacity, and the combined Newmont-Newcrest monster will likely want to sell the assets.
There is some speculation here: Newmont/Newcrest want to offload the assets and would welcome a smaller valuation to get rid of them. Greatland is the obvious buyer but needs it low valuation. And who advised Fortescue for years? Grant Samuel.
Greatland has made clear it does not wish to use the $220 million debt funding from the banking syndicate until the feasibility study is concluded. And it’s delayed its ASX IPO — several months ago journalists were speculating it planned to raise $100 million. And it has around $60 million in cash.
Add in a little additional Wyloo money, or a ‘supportive’ banking syndicate ready to go, and you’re there.''
Just a thought and maybe some explanation as to our current low etc etc etc......
AIMHO
GLA
As posted here by MH01 :
I repeat the link as I found it to be just , an accurate synopsis rand great read!
Https://investingstrategy.co.uk/mining/gold/investing-strategy-the-greatland-gold-edit/
If nothing else, it will give any new (or old ) investors who like a detailed summary; an insight into where GGP have been and the journey up to now, for clarity all in one space, possibly then a few insights into what might happen as a bonus muse. Thx MHO1
My own observation is that we are all pretty much just full of conjecture, theories, (conspiracy or otherwise) and some boredom and frustration amongst a good number of people, re the long lull in value to SH. I get it and have had a private moan myself a few times over this past 3 years, plus it's the wild west of AIM adding to the uncertainty.
However, it really can't be long now until we get news of our direction. Will we be taken out, Won't we. Will we get dumped by NEM giving us new pastures and power in the future and what will that involve!
Someone mentioned people leaving here for pastures new stock-wise after the interminable wait; but in real terms, if you listen to Buffet and follow and believe also in the Lassonde Curve for juniors going mining etc, then it isn't and hasn't been too long a wait. We just got spoilt (or ruined) by the 37p ATH to date) which has unnerved us even more.
All understandable and without repeating myself yet again, it's all down to seeing what we HAVE achieved (you all know the list of supersonic spped of drilling super board setc etc) so fundamentals also of Hav as a gold discovery of proportion; and the ambitions of SD.
Do you stay or do you go? It's what a lot of people are debating. But you have two choices and not an easy choice for some. Nor me in some ways but damned if I would dare miss out on what could be a phenomenal future ..but that's my choice and my opinion.
I think there are many on here that need to make that decision themselves to sit comfortably or be content with sitting on a prickly cushion that itches every now and then, with the nails of doubt! Choices choices!
GLA!
It is nothing those of us who have followed the journey don't know, but it makes for a concise read.
Hi Froggzy,
Good research , though to be fair, a caveat to that article may be true enough now, as NEM have taken over NCM which would include all of it's assets.
However they do also intend to potentially make some divestments going forwards and I doubt we will hear about those immediately, the vote has gone through, but rather in the coming days, weeks or months dependent on NEM leadership team.
Just a caveat. It could well be the case, but don't think it is gospel just yet, in case people speculate too soon.
ATB
Thx Paddy ,
A quick listen to SD on Sunday Roast & amongst the banter ; geopolitical talk , takeover talk etc I came away with some thoughts or interpretations of his answers or comments.
1. On the face of it his party line is still that he’d be surprised if NEM overlooked Havieron as part of their new mix going forwards.
2. We’re well positioned for any decisions made
3. Despite market expectations, strategic timing is everything
4. Re the best advice he’s ever been given ? “Life is about optionality “
Hhhmmm. Interesting and most of the above are my interpretation of his words bar the quote.
My view is this and a repetion of a lot of the recent observations we’ve made.
He’s not unaware of market ( and shareholders by default ) expectations BUT it’s about ducking diving and deciding and I deciding ( eg ASX listing ) along with whatever is thrown out us ( ie takeover. Bissau. Etc etc etc press leaks. Wars. So many changes or new events that have perhaps deviated our path !)
It would seem he firmly is saying NEM will take us on and be fools not to , but we may also have more options he’s ready for. So confused mixed messages on the face of it. But imho only , the words he keep repeating of ‘optionality ‘ makes me think we have win win win months and years ahead.
All these delays could be creating the perfect gold storm ahead.
All is crossed! Nail - bitingly waiting for good things ahead and my goodness will we have deserved good news in due course !! What a rollercoaster it is !
Thanks to Hopefullygold for link to John feneck ,PM consultant talking about his overview of time spent with CEOS at major PM conferences and his own experiences and expertise on what’s happening with mining stocks in general.
My takeaway ,pertaining to our own situation ( and note he doesn’t talk about GGP at all ; just junior and major cap miners in general , is that in the three three years and few months ( since Aug 2020 ) gold stocks have been decimated despite or in spite of excellent drill results being released regardless due to sector sentiment and timing etc.
He believes the gold sector will rotate next year . This gives life and heart to our own predicament of excellent drills not shifting the dial of late etc.
Add to that imo, and many others here who research , that were in flux due to takeover giants in play but now confirmed , that there’s been a pause on top of sentiment which has added to our woes.
We’re in a high risk business where expenditure is extremely high also to fulfil a major project and dilution always the only way for juniors to progress a strike : but we have major backers in our extraordinary case : a super board , a head honcho master chess playing leader : and monies in the bank and promised loans in reserve and potential upcoming opportunities we might never have seen had this time consuming takeover not coming about.
Therefore I choose to believe it’s serendipitous that we have the right leader the right team the right jurisdiction and the right commodity in an uncertain economy and a war -ridden world , in place waiting to escalate.
Time. Patience. Facts upcoming leadership. Fate and luck. All to play for. Excruciating wait tho it might be !
GLA!