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A sensible (and logical ) article there......so it's all to play for. Sandeep's departure and Newmont's arrival could be the best thing to happen for us in the last 3 years if SD and super board has his/their way I suspect!
I know I am jumping the gun here...but empires are started from golden opportunities or someone else's mistakes, mishaps or misdemeanours.. or just simply mergers!
Hope I'm right! Slow pathway to success and profits if so, but better than the staus quo inho!
Think the facts are:
- that we have no facts as yet and until the merger is complete with NEM/NCM we 'won't' know!
- common sense and historical evidence would suggest that if an imminent takeout then there follow usually a leak and rapid escalation of SP in anticipation. We are sat at 6p currently but it is what to look out for in advance of news
-it is business as usual and indeed good to see the outline in the job ad just posted for bus exec that terminology says 'aspiring developer and producer (of multi mines etc) witht he caveat that it is business as usual unless otherwise stated as fact.
Think what I'm saying is that there are a number of scenarios and none of us can guess currently, IMHO on our way forwards with so many possibilities and potentially opportunities ahead in this current scenario,
My suspicions are that SD has more power to his elbow and potential given the current facts potentially and if, as he states, his desire is to lead a multi asset multi billion dollar enterprise: that he will do his damndest to play this chess game to his/our advantage, but we watch and wait to see how it gets played out!
All I do know is that in this scenario and with Twiggy Wyloo and banks and logistics in the Paterson and Hav all on our side; he has a good chance of playing David to Goliath. IE More chance than if Biswas was still in town!
Let's wait and see which side it lands. Either way it is nail-bitingly exciting , but I haven't waited all this time for a miserable 3 year low when we have so many chess pieces to potentially to play with.
It IS nail-biting though as we are still a David.
GLA!
Think from memory ,SD enthusiastically mooted that we would likely / hope to achieve c50% increase on current reserve , which , at circa 6 /6.5 m oz au/ equivalent would make my sums around 8-9 m oz.
Anything more I suspect would/ should be a bonus. Expectations should perhaps be along these lines whenever it ‘is’ announced !
Slowly slowly catchee etc
GLA!
Catalysts to remove uncertainty for the market in the next 6 or so months will be :
- NCM/NEW Resolution
-Feasibility Study
- Decline reaching orebody
Known factors maybe, to us all , with tis current demise of SP value, but of course critical to market entiment, and therefore value lifting.
Let's focus on these and anything else SD and the new board bring to light post takeover completion. Which let's face it, is almost a foregone conclusion and just days away.
GLA!
Panama
Hmmm their description (Newmont) of a Tier 1 asset:
''Tier 1 asset. Defined as +500k GEO’s/year consolidated, average AISC/oz in the lower half of the industry cost curve and a mine life >10 years in countries that are classified in the A and B rating ranges for each of Moody’s, S&P and
Fitch.''
In Shaun’s own words Havieron is a major asset to launch pad off for a junior and is more impressive than the discovery his former company Northern star launched with !
It’s not to be taken so lightly I think and whichever way it goes is a valuable ace in our deck of cards.
It’s a very interesting and nail biting scenario. But I agree that this super circle board of steel is not here for just a ‘possible ‘ new discovery. There HAS to be something significant in our armoury for the likes of the assembled super board ; the savvy of SD playing David consistently to the three now Goliaths; and not forgetting Twiggy ; Wyloo ; and several major financial institutions putting up monies !
It doesn’t / wouldn’t make sense to me if there wasn’t a long term plan.
Let’s see which way the cookie crumbles. This is an intriguing combination and a tense but exciting time.
I’m all in. I’m sure others are too. I am wagering that we’re right to be. We need a bit of magic and lucky timing and fairy dust but we already have the concrete pillars of business savvy in place !
GLA!
I would like some clarity but recognise that whilst the takeover continues, that GGP will not be at liberty to disclose this and may not even know themselves which way the cookie will crumble. Although I expect SD does have a good idea and I am just waiting to find out and I truly hope it is for good things to come.
I rate him highly as a savvy and strategically focused operator. The Winston Churchill comment in the webinar i think, was telling.
When things change I change my mind....or somesuch! The chess game can only be played when the opponent makes a move usually unless you can second guess it. I imagine there are multiple strategies in play or at least planned for depending on outcomes of NEM/NCM decisions.
A sale of our 30% with a base of 6 odd pennies does not excite me . I cannot see how we get to 80 plus pence from here based on what the market knows. In the event of a leak at any point of a sale potentially, then the SP will rapidly rise. But would it rise sufficiently high from this low low standpoint? I doubt it,
We need more things to come to pass and a higher SP for that. If of course we intend to acretively acquire.....then I maintain that at this lowly figure it does still make a difference to the purchase price regardless of what NEW/NCM 'know' . The market is currently unaware and our face value is low and Telfer is worthless in the wrong hands.
I watch and wait. I would personally love a quick outcome but doubt the sale of 30% at this juncture would give me the value I require. In my view only I perceive an 80 p plus SP to be the outcome of years more building blocks unless a lucky strike or two come off. I hope they happen! Otherwise the chess game continues I hope until SD can manoeuvre a way to make us a multi billion dollar operation
GLA!
Rubbish!
I'm as peed off as the next person on delays to ASX but understand the timing has been jiggered by major events (takeover etc!!between the worlds largest gold producers no less!)
But this MD and assembled super- board, for a tiny junior has achieved things GH never could have. I don't blame him for taking his millions at 22p but I do blame the manipulated hype preceding that. He could have omitted that bit at those levels and spared himself that legacy after doing a good job being the front man for GGP with Callum as the expert geo making the discoveries. All hail Clalum and Havieron!
This 7p SP sucks and I agree with that bit but the world is a very different place to 2020 when covid and hype and plentiful new investors hit us all and rendered us all complacent to an extent and ready for more.
But now we have what we have:
-A bloke who has almost certainly saved us from a 3p equiv or 10 p max takeout
- A super board and they aren't here for pennies
-An Oz listing to be with pensions monies incoming
- A man whose chess- playing is extraordinary to say the least! (I am in awe of that)
- A communicator who is strategic and chooses his timing wisely (we pray!)
- A humble guy who does not turn away small investors for only the big guys and girls
-A networker who is literally everywhere wherever he needs to be in the world (no mean feat)
-A David who builds alliances with Goliaths who seem friendly (Rio) and squares up to mean Goliath-types who try to screw usover
etc etc
give the guy a break and let him prove himself. In my view he is doing a great job with more to come!
It posted b4 I finished.
My point is that until SD can reveal more of his plans officially there are no other questions from me until he does and I am guessing unless a surprise revelation as icing on the cake tmw via an RNS, we will have to wait until merger official and then we see what part of the cake is ours/theirs/ up for grabs etc!
But it's great he is releasing news. Great he addressed the leak and ASK for now and so on. One can't say h is not trying to keep us informed with what he can divulge.
Also along with others my concern is that the SP makes us vulnerable. However, as the expert and knowledgeable operator himself would point out.....if there were a sniff in the air of us being taken over then we would not be languishing at 7 pennies...we would see a very swift rise IMHO , so it aint happeneing yet, if at all.
Waiting and Watching. Hope theres news tomorrow that shifts gears for us but so far so good as far as his strategies go
GLA!
Hi Speedie et al,
Yes sad I one make this one as I think it is a critical one in some ways and I look forward to the feedback, with thanks in anticipation. Some of you have my direct details and I'd appreciate an update accordingly.
Re what he can say, well that's the question and only one he can answer. Other questions around major updates, raise and ASX issues have already been discussed and
I hope Shaun will impart more than just steadying the ship although unless he is at liberty to release more market sensitive news via an RNS tomorrow then
Hi All
From Dubai currently so will just miss the TH sadly.
Am looking forward to some in - depth feedback and reporting however from those who make the meeting. Hope it’s a good one.
Good on Shaun and the team for all the current news flow. It’s not the big juicy flow as yet but it all adds up. I’m sure the MRE etc is being worked on as we speak. This takeover plus the raise leak plus time lag due to both where the bigger fish are frying other deals , have caused headaches all round I’m surmising. But maybe opportunity for us also. Let’s hope.
I’m optimistic that our board and leader have big plans longer term. My view. But timings are key . The fact that recent events have delayed ASX and the raise issue was neatly overcome with a debt facility in place is reassuring as it plays the game of chess cleverly and to our advantage imo. What could he do when the bigger fish are locked into a huge deal. Timing is everything especially when a currently smaller player.
I’m watching and waiting. I don’t like this lowly SP as it makes us vulnerable and I’ve told sd directly my views. For what they’re worth. But NCM are now out of the equation. Newmont are at least huge and respected and Telfer needs feeding or putting to rest or swallowing up !
Strategically and logistically is say we’re well placed for a win win.
And I’m here for more than 26 p eventually.
GLA
It is intriguing and interesting to see how big businesses operate in a fog of old data and with the smaller less significant operator having to issue corrective information to make a valid point !
Many have argued that SD not being too bothered about historical figures as opposed to issuing new up to the minute data cannot have a bearing on public perception or current value.
Doesn’t this scenario negate that thinking somewhat ?
To the world at large we are looking insignificant yet SD and we know better as I’m sure do NEM and NCM ! But if we are right and that two years of updated drills not being included in public reporting makes a misleading statement to all public including NEM shareholders ahead of a vote , then maybe SD does have a strategic reason for letting it stay buried in old data.
Just a thought.
Ok so Shaun is coming over and there’s bound to be an RNS proceeding his arrival. Stands to reason. Let’s hope it’ a Good one !
Love Hydros research or hate it , those of you who ad,it’s good research should watch this money of mine interview with a man who make billionaires more billions. He knows his orebodies in all different metal categories and is paid fortunes to make fortunes including for our Twiggy although for cost reasons he does not invest in Oz right now.
It’s interesting when you break down what he looks for in a good investment. For those who don’t want to plough through the hours interview here are highlights relevant to us :
Criteria for maximum ROI for his billionnaire clients for his fund management Co
Warren Gilman
-We have to have a great and high quality orebody ( needle in a haystack !)- check
- a great jurisdiction and geopolitically risk - averse - check
- With a commodity that has an upside - check
- a Macro environment and commodity prices( that will uplift )- check
- Nothing beats grade. 'Grade forgives many mistakes ' we love grade - check
- Margin is important -( we have low AISC)- check
- Have a management team that understands the orebody - eermm check
- we commit our money for at least 5 years - up to you !
Right at the end of the I/ v he was asked if Greatland was overrated or underrated - he said underrated without lauding
GLA!
And a Question l have for you from me - ‘ are you a true believer of the value of your deposit ?'- I am. Are you ??base your investment decision on that plus management belief plus timelines plus research.
Panama
I agree with much of Sisus latest post.
I also believe that there’s a strong reason to be confident of the presence of the super board plus the investors Shaun has got onside. They are here not for 6 p 8 p or 15 p and neither am I.
However the wait just got longer and the NEM takeover has taken time out of former strategy and possibly now made it harder for SD to grow organically through Hav and Telfer if they remain in situ in place of NCM. we will have to wait and see. If he can’t acquire more of Hav then I’m interested to see what his accretive strategy will be going forwards ; and clearly Rio was a fabulous move and great start on growth and power play.
Shaun will undoubtedly be here very soon not least because the ASX listing and strategy needs to be followed through.
Also Callum is still here , along with many long term holders.
There is of course a threat of takeout but I would not want this at these levels as eye watering would be harder from a place of 6 p so hoping that’s not the case.
We are protected to a degree by our major investors which gives me hope. If we get another strike we will be further protected and we’ll positioned to escalate in both SP and status in the Paterson.
However buckle up for a longer term ride. Many things are currently out of our hands. But macro economy also suggests that sentiment , for miners with gold and copper will become more favourable.
GLA!