Member Info for Paddyboy1

Despite the SP being where it is i didn't really see anything in the update to make me want to sell out at a loss. The divi cut was the main catalyst for the fall but for me the dividend was reintroduced too soon anyway so was the right move. Just a poor management decision. Reduced forecast. Yes ok not great but if they can get those numbers we're not bad either. Don't forget revenues are still on the up here so could be looking around £3.5 bn in annual revenue come next year. Maybe this company needs to start looking at their pricing strategy seeing as the ROCE levels are really quite poor.

JG, the cancellation of divi & asset sale has not been 'decided on' by the BOD here. it's been 'forced on' them by the lenders. That looks fairly obvious to me. The lenders will have seen the reduced forecasts & their main concern is to protect their interests. It's like when a bank repossesses a house. The property's true value is of little concern as long as they can recover the amounts owed to them. This is pretty raw economics but we're seeing this type of stuff in lots of shares now with SPs tanking on lacklustre trading reports. We'll continue seeing this as the economic outlook remains dire i think!

I am very 'over-extended' here! Got nearly £200k in this

A RI was historically a big concern of mine here. I'm fairly comfortable that that shouldn't be needed now the bond refinancing is done & dusted.

Locky, probably most people on this bb share your sentiments in some way or another. Since this went sub £1 a new tranche of peeps have come on this bb looking for a fast buck which obviously hasn't happened so they have cut & run or decided to throw this one under the bed. Everyone has different circumstances & for some their choice is to throw in the towel & suck up the losses. Personally, i'm underwater here for silly money now & while i'm annoyed i don't feel concerned about the long term future here. NEX/MCG has been around in one guise or another since before many of us were even born. It's not going anywhere. The leadership will change; the structure of the business will change but the company will continue regardless. The global macro situation atm is diabolical but things will improve at some point. The question i suppose is how long? For me i will continue to hold here as i see this company i 5-10 years time thriving under the right leaders. Just look at the transformation in SP for Rolls Royce with a new CEO. No reason this can't happen here in time. This is a well established , trusted brand. I used NEX coaches all the time when i was at Uni over 30 years ago now. I understand the frustration but there are plenty of shares around you could have been invested in & would have lost far more than you may be down underwater here. Sometimes best to just look away from the SP for a few months & allow the company to just go about it's daily business. I'm never a fan of crystallizing losses but there are occasions when it's the best thing to do. Thankfully, i don't consider this one of those occasions. This share is now at an all time ever low. This is i suspect more a message that the current leaders must go than a reflection of the true underlying value of the business. GL in whatever you decide to do. I am staying for a long while yet!

I remember on this very bb back post covid vaccine day people were scrambling to try & buy into this sub £2. How times have changed since then but really the company itself has not. Just the external factors. Be nice to think that some normality might return at some stage!

It's reassuring to hear that at least on this bb people realise the true value is a lot higher than the current SP reflects. Personally i'm up to my eyeballs in this one albeit my average isn't too bad ( sub £1) & i'm happy to hold for a long time. Personally i've lost trust & confidence in the management here. It used to feel like this was well managed when Finch & Davies were at the helm. Time will tell i suppose & i'm actually feeling quite relieved as some other investments i'd considered have done far worse than this one!

Problem is it will be the lenders who have the say whether to sell & at what price!

So do people think a £1bn offer for the whole business on Monday would be knocked back? Personally i think the whole game has changed now due to the macro etc & comparisons with FGP aren't too relevant. If any of those sale figures touted here were likely to become reality the SP would not be 62p & the company's value would be rather more than £400m!

I would guess they've had expressions of interest in the NA bus division as a separate entity in the past hence the decision to effectively put it up for sale. The important thing is getting the right price. If they can get enough to clear the debt burden then this should improve things hugely. This share has become a total dog stock!

JG, as i see it. If MCG could get £1bn for the school buses business they could clear their whole debt off & still have the rump of the business. I think if that were realistic we would not be sitting at 60p SP. Surely the markets have this all well sussed out!

LW, yes i know you were & atm £1.50 would look credible to anyone for the whole business. My point is why does anyone think they would get anywhere near £1bn for school bus as a standalone?

JG, it will be for sure but they need a contingency (i.e. a replacement) for both CEO & CFO. I wouldn't be surprised if Jorge Cosmen took charge on an interim basis. There wouldn't have been gold wrapped biscuits & posh coffee being poured while they were giving this BS update!

Well, £1.50 would value the entire business @ c.£1bn so why would anyone pay £1bn for a small chunk of it. ALSA is IMO the jewel in the crown here. That is what i think PE etc will want to get their hands on!

When the SP is at this ridiculous level unfortunately low ball bids (e.g. 100-120 per share) have credibility. A few here have been in on THG. It happened there & that was nearly £8 less than 3 years ago. A valuation of school bus @ £1bn or anywhere near that is just pie in the sky when you could buy the entire MCG business nearly 3 times over for that money. The good thing about this announcement is that they've basically opened their doors to potential suitors for all parts of the business IMO. Won't be long before the vultures will be trying to get the quality parts of this business.

Guys, have i got it right regarding the current financing here now. With the new bond to replace the bridge to bond we are now reasonably solid (going concern wise) until 2028. So assuming revenue remains on the up & hopefully ROCE improves there should be no major finance stuff due until then. The short term drop i can bear as long as this is looking sustainable until the macro starts to improve which is starting to look like it's going to take rather longer than expected.

So do people think when the entire MC is @£400m someone would pay £400m for just one part of the business? makes little sense to me!

As i understand it they are forecasting FY (i.e. HY1 + HY2) ebitda at £175-£185m for the entire MCG group. I hope your numbers are right though as the SP wouldn't be at this level.

The whole of NA operations made £13.8m ebit for HY 23

Are those numbers correct? They're forecasting £175m ebitda for the whole group FY 23. I don't think school bus is that cash generative.