Member Info for Paddyboy1

Yes, agreed a disaster & my worst investment by far. Hoping for a Kin & Carta day here & ruing the day i didn't move a chunk of these into that when it was 60p. Instead i sold what i had with the takeover profits & threw it at this dog. Ne'er mind. 2025 isn't that far away!

Smokey, The levels being touted on here are silly. I doubt they'd be interested in anything less than140-150 as a serious bidder even that seems ridiculously low. The SP here was 92 p just a couple of months back. The underlying business here is running in much the same way as it was prior to the pandemic as i see it. All businesses are fully operational. This company should be profitable & earnings should be much higher. That has not happened mainly due to management failures IMO. Poor due diligence on contracts; pathetic margins & ROCE etc etc. All these things can be turned around with the right leadership. I think the new CFO could be a turning point. She won't have been given the job after a cuppa & a half hour chat. She would have had to now what she's coming into & probably present to a few board members. I personally think it's sad where this company is at. This is a great brand. A household name. I get it that a lot of peeps on here want a bid. If you've just bought in it's a quick earner but i think this business is worth far more. Cosmen knows that too. Let's face it. he's going to be more underwater than most on here but i don't think he'll be worried will he.

Lots of quotes for bid prices on here being based on current today's ticker price which is an all time ever low. No bid would be entertained remotely near that price IMO.

LW, yes the shorts here are really fairly miniscule but an increase isn't good obviously & marshall wace have a habit of getting it right. However i suspect they are well hedged against any short squeeze anyway. It's to be expected anyway given the current state of play. Personally i don't think this week has been too painful overall at least it could have been much worse. The nationalisation stuff sounds like desperate propaganda from the Tories & nothing more to me given it's an election year!

JG, yes, it does feel like this is all a bit stage managed by Cosmen et al!

JW, Yes they can block any other bidder but that doesn't stop other parties being interested in acquiring it & they are expected to act in the interests of the stakeholders!

I think what a lot of PIs fail to grasp is that when SPs drop this low it isn't necessarily because the company is about to go bust or is in extreme distress or anything like that. It is because there is at present little or no reason to buy this .I am not referring here to us on this bb. We are minnows in a huge ocean & very few PIs have the financial clout to affect the SP on a large company's share. It is the large IIs; pension funds; asset management cos etc. These II investors have a completely different mindset to the small investor. They have no interest in 'catching the bottom!' They don't care about the bottom they care about the top. There is no reason for IIs to buy this atm. No dividend; dropped from FT250; loss making etc! Barring any T/O approach any future significant rises will need news which brings the funds back in here. Rolls Royce bumbled for best part of 3 years under £1 with a couple of spikes for similar reasons. the impetus the market got with that was the new CEO arrival &his bigger plan. The funds have driven that one right back up again. In the short term we have a new CFO coming. That could be a catalyst. Interest rates coming down etc etc. The point is when the funds are comfortable that the management can deliver what they say this will begin to rerate. All IMO.

I hope i'm wrong btw & this is nicely back in the 60s by Friday close but be under no illusions that this can still go lower than 53. No guarantees in this game i'm afraid!

Smokey, looking at the MC is always a dangerous thing. It is pretty irrelevant in terms of where the SP wil go to. Of course £300 odd mill is a silly number for this but it just doesn't matter. You have 3 active short positions in here this could go lower than 53 yes. It could go quite a bit lower. I don't see it as a worry. I've seen some mad short selling behaviour on shares but true value always ultimately comes out. It presents a great buying opportunity sometimes but the opportunity is always cloaked with the fear that the drops will never stop. They always stop at some point & usually reverse very sharply in the event of positive news!

JG if you showed those holdings to anyone in 30 of the 31 years this has been a listed company they would look magnificent. Sadly it is 2024

JG, Hindsight is a wonderful thing. My holding is essentially in 2 chunks. A load bought mainly between 115-130 & another load between 56-85. I had a break from buying until it had dropped into the 80s. I should have sliced a good few at 90 but we can all say that after the event. I will buy another couple of chunks if it drops below the 50 but otherwise i'm well overweight now so once it starts rising i will start paring some of the holding down as admittedly i'm way over exposed on this investment. I agree with your sentiment. Possible danger of a CR but we're safe for a good while i think & i had convinced myself they were going to drop that clanger yesterday. If the macro improves we should see this steadily upturn. Look at how it went up again after the first dip to the 50s. Steadily back up to 90s. The 30 year chart is very telling on this share * i see no reason why we are not now at a similar position like it was in 2009 then steady growth YOY to 2020. Hopefully that will be replicated this time around!

JG, Most of us want jam tomorrow. It very rarely works like that in this game & i do believe the best investments are the ones held for long periods. In 2 years never mind 5 i would imagine very few of the commentators here now would be anywhere to be seen. For most weary longer term holders i suspect yesterday's stuff was a bit of a relief just to see where it's all at. As i see it this company has lots going for it. Strong brand; very little competition; price inelastic. The financing is all in place for the next 5 years so all that is needed is a prudent & responsible management to deliver what they need to. My view is this is one to accumulate at these silly prices with cash you don't need for a few years & just forget about it. When people bought Rolls Royce @40-50p you had the same people saying the same things about debt, bankruptcy etc & it's now £4. If people don't think the management here can turn this around they should sell what they have or don't invest in it & go to those 'better' investments which people hark on about!

Not pleasant seeing MW in this although only a small increase from where they already were

JC, buying at this price is like getting GNC in low 60s IMO

Has the risk here doubled from when the SP was 110? i don't think a great deal has changed aside from a hit to earnings. Was it not more risky to buy this @200-250 in the middle of a pandemic with no end in sight & the operational business totally stagnant?

Why would Cosmen be buying millions with his own money if it was so risky? He knows the business inside out.Been involved in it over 20 years

SM, Well the'extreme' risk is surely baked into this SP. Of course there are less risky stocks and you pay a price to buy stocks with rosy outlooks; dividends etc. It comes down to how much risk is palateable to each individual & that varies greatly. I'm not sure the risk is as extreme as you state though. This has an investment grade credit rating & support of lenders. The day to day operational business operational business seems to be running along fine. Are you a holder here?

Https://www.imd.org/cowing-helen/

Yes i was never too impressed with Stamp. Didn't seem right.Just pulling a huge salary & doing little IMO. I would have preferred Chris Davies the old CFO to have got the CEO position but they favoured Garat. Still not sure what to make of him but he's cost me a lot of money!

Jorge Cosmen wasn't buying loads of these shares @60s & 70s to flush his family's money down the toilet.He knows better than anyone the true picture here & that in itself is a reason to buy these & hold. I believe any further downside will be hoovered up very quickly indeed! tis will certainly not stay in the 50s for too long IMO!