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Agreed if all sales only are made on the spot price. There are numerous mines that fix their prices on forward sales. There are companies at present out there selling at $7500 to 8000USD/ton. I don't believe that the price of cars, electrical appliances, cell phones etc has dropped in the last couple of years. I can be wrong but where I stay, it certainly hasn't. Companies out there are optimistic about the future boom. At the beginning of Tschudi, Rod had the option of forward selling at $6500/ ton. Had he opted for this and not the spot price WTi would have been in a different position. Rod chose the spot price cause he did not read the world market correctly. A different CEO may have done otherwise. So if have the right CEO that can trade, we can exceed all expectation. I also agree that profitability it is not independent of the market. Sentiment and decision making will be based on some of the following: - China's urbanisation - Growth in India - US growth predictions - EU laws regarding pollution. - Electric Cars - lack of large copper mines coming on line. - labour strikes in copper mining sector. - different trade blocks competing for limited commodities and wanting to improve their growth rate. - delayed construction of mega copper mines. - Distance. Business people are like pro Athletes, they want to play. I cant imagine them staying in a conservative mode indefinitely. A lot of indicators in the market suggests that we are heading towards a bullish run. Different investors have access to different info and as such will have different future predictions. Innovators and business people have different levels of ambition and appetite for risk. Different people can react differently be it under the same conditions. I understand your position and I respect it. And this is the beauty of the market we play in, there are no definites and no one knows for sure whats going to happen and when it will happen. Keeping hope alive.
Orion will certainly make money on the sale of copper. So we know, there's money to be made. Therefore WTi can be profitable. We needed a better negotiator in the driving seat. The new CEO should be on an incentive scheme. Looking at Craig and his experience, he was on probably the best wicket he could have expected in this phase of his career. His reward was guaranteed regardless of his performance and it reflected in our share price. I do recall that on many occasions PIs complaining about the quality of the announcements and the impact it had on the SP. We don't have to go far back, just recently Headly had to get clarification with regard to the conversion of the loan. In hindsight, that's an indication that this management did not respect nor care for our value of the SP. The original announcement was careless and interestingly enough he stepped down the very next day.
Agreed MT Sparky After yesterday, I now believe that Orion has a better handle on the C1 costs. They probably will insert their talent to drop the C1 costs so that the payback period for the loan can be reduced.
Hi JennyW. What is your take on Orion not taking their hedges? My feeling is that Orion wants WTI to start moving towards profitability. Someone in Orion is responsible for the recovery of the loan as well as showing a growth in their investment. Their KPI is inked to their year end rewards. as an American company coming from a country with largest GDP they are probably held accountable on the following and probably more: 1. Loan repayment 2. Growth on their investment which will be reflected in: i. share price growth ii. Dividend payout 3. Having WTI mine for new copper deposits 4. Agreeing sales agreements that are beneficial to Orion. What Orion also has to cognisance of is that the Namibian Government is also a shareholder. Orion cannot be seen to be using their position to the detriment of the Namibian government. Else they will find themselves in similar position to Quantum. They cannot be seen to be buying copper at lower price then what it is valued at in the market. Companies have tried this with gold and now find themselves having to pay the piper.
Agree Boffin. Orion loans out money, buys and sells commodities. They do not operate plants, they do however have network of experts they can call upon. Their 29% allows them to continue with their advantages as previously.
Hi Longtomsilver Whats your evaluation of WTI with BergA, Khitumba, matchless and Othjiasa in the mix? I guess we will be getting in an American CEO. Change is good. We get to experience another perspective of business.
Hi Mannan. Like you we have all dared. Now we must complete our journey. What ever the outcome, I can honestly say, it was one helluva adventure. Lets keep going.
Hi TDT You are clued up on these sort of things. Would the following be possible: 1. identify top 6 finance houses and their predictions. 2. identify which mining and tech companies they are associated with. 3. proportion out their value of the mining and tech to copper and weight it relative to the other 5 finance houses. 4. I think we would then have a pretty good feel for the copper price. Alternatively we look at a company like Mitsubishi. In addition to manufacturing, they have copper interests as well as own smelters. Several large mining companies use their smelters . Mitsubishi are in a unique position, they have a hand in technology, cars, mining and smelting. would be great to obtain their prediction on copper. They may have better view because of their wholistic involvement.
Hi Headly From all of us, you have the dialogue with KE at the moment. I suggest the following: 1. KE enlightens us as to what the break even CU price is with regard to paying down the loan understnadning the the Rand and vol as variables it will be a range. 2.when are Othjihasa and matchless coming back on line. Right now there is no fairness in the release of info. Orion who are shareholders and have no board representation by virtue of their loan position are now privy to insider information. therefore in the interest of impartiality all of the shareholders should be given that same information. 3. I look at all of you that are loyal and are fighting with all that you have to keep this dream alive, i just hope and pray that our board members have the same fire. perhaps one of you guys should be on the board. Amongst all of us over here, we probably can pool 15% to 20%. Pending LSE Security requirements, I see no reason as to why this cannot be done. the above has been raised along time ago. 4. Lastly the company has to listen to the shareholders. the shareholders are represented by the board which are elected by the shareholders, a lot of this current board are legacy appointees. 5. if we want change, we should be the change.
Hi Vanillathunder Whats your calculation for the Cu price that allows WTi to start paying down the debt? Earlier post of Goldman Sachs says Cu to trade at $8000 usd this year.
Hi TDT With Craig leaving, the asset has not changed nor has the potential of what you, Boffin and Fundamentally has said previously. Players change, we gonna have to sit back and see what happens. good news drove the SP to 3.6p in a Feb. this asset is capable of winning back the sentiment of the market. However from what we are seeing it is also short term News sensitive. Lets keep hope alive.
Hi TDT. That would be me. in Nov 2013 the SP was at 5.5p. Craig had already been there for some time before we became shareholders. if we go back two to three years from that date. The SP does tie up to what he said to me. 500k is a big number to walk away from. hes probably been asked to step down.
Hi Boffin.When Craig was appointed to the board, the SP was around 1p. However he had joined WTI PLC several years prior to his appointment to the board. the share price was significantly higher back then. At the beginning of Tschudi Nov 2013,the SP was at 5.5p
Craig Leaving at this stage is good for the shareholders. He was appropriate in a bearish market. Craig is an operations man. I do recall PIs complaining that the board is not doing enough to grow the share price. Hopefully we can now employ that person who will do this for us. Orion as an American company appreciate strength, they obviously understand that Craig may be tired and is not the right person for Zambia. Zambia is a different kettle of fish. The role players in Zambia are a lot tougher and more street wise. Also what would not have gone down well with Orion was the board opening the pit in the wrong position and thereafter suspending the share and and destroying our hard earned sentiment. Zambia capital input will be in excess of $200million so they would want to entrust this to someone they trust. Some of the decisions Craig and Rod made got us into this position to start of with. 1. opening the Pit in the wrong position and suspending the share even tough the the process plant was completed three months ahead of schedule. 2. taking too long to place Othjihasa and Matchless on care and maintenance. Good cash was used to carry a liability when copper dropped. 3. having the option to forward sell at $6500 at the beginning of the project and not taking it. The Orion board would be aware of the above and would want a change. Winning follows winning, Craig has tried but unfortunately Craig does not have the talent to carry this through. What is good is they will be a transition period for the new CEO to step in. also starting a new mine is like a world war, it goes on for 4 to 5 years and at the end of it the war generals and soldiers are tired and have to be replaced. This has always been the nature of the world. We have worked with many mining CEO's from Aus. They tend to be optimistic, bullish and move with courage. Craig in my opinion was never bullish nor optimistic, so we should be glad that he elected to step down. If Craig can not see away out in a bullish market, he is clearly not the CEO for us. Natural selection has intervened to save us.
Thanks Gozoinvestor. Government approvals do take time. what is important is that through Headly making contact, WTI has confirmed that we are still on track. As shareholders we need to engage more frequently with our BOD. After all they are our representatives. And as such both Kevin and Craig have to take into account the needs of all the investors and not just Orions. Right now they may feel isolated as they are at the face with Orion.
Hi WatchMaverick. Orion shouldnt be controlling the company. They cannot do what they want. The current directors are bound by the companies act. Orion as the debt funders are securing their loan. They are only doing what the banks would do to secure their loan. However they can only control excess cash generated from the sale of copper to Orion. it does not stop the BOD from obtaining new buyers. Things will change when the market flips.
Hi TDT. Agreed, Lots of PI have backed this company. The potential still remains vast and hence the frustration at the SP. But according to Craig he bought at 12p which is a lot of cash for a PI. Hes gonna want to recover his losses. Also I'm hoping that hes personality is big enough to want to recover the share price. aside from that We are still going with yours, Boffin and Fundamentally's thoughts. This is a good investment, the market will reflect this in the near future.
when Craig sold his home in Aus and moved his family to Nam, he invested that money in WTI. The success of this mine is personal for him. hes smart enough, hes done the numbers all he needs is time for this bull period to kick in.
So Orion has figured out the following. 1. WTI is going to be profitable in the near future and they want control of the profits in the short term for debt repayment. 2. They want Craig and Kevin on a short leash so that they dont reward themselves ahead of Orion and the shareholders and resign. 3. They need Craig for the long term with regards to their plans. 4. I wont be surprised if the loan repayments / profits rolls over into loans for Zambia. 5 from Orions Webpage their assets have grown to 3.7 billion as opposed to 3 billion several years ago. 6. they securing their asset and the person they believe is best suited for copper in southern Africa. 7. Like any goof investor they will not reward Craig until they make their money. 8. they have a window of opportunity of three years to set in motion they plan. Time is not on their side for this next bullish cycle. they will react shortly. 9. Kevin buying million shares is not by chance. knowing Kevin, he will only move if it is in his favours. 10. Craig hasn't sold out either.