Member Info for Overhyped

My mistake sorry, I did mean SML

The last time I dared mention this I was soundly mocked.

It's a sophisticated system, created in Japan, for forecasting how the price of any particular share might move in the immediate future.

I frequently use it. At the moment, it's telling me good things about the possible direction of the LMS share price.

If anyone is interested, they can Google it.

Stevie02 I get your message. AI and robots might take care of all the mining so health and safety might not be an issue. So things might happen faster than I supposed

Who said the Lassonde Curve isn't universal? But just like most other system of rules, it's mainly for guidance.

It describes what happens during the life of a mine from initial discovery through to the depletion of the resource.

Each step is universal. All that changes is the degree to which each step applies. In the case of SML the 2 - 3 year orphan period is reduced because SML has funds that most startup miners don't have. Everything else remains the same as the Lassonde Curve describes. After the feasability study is complete the mine still has to be dug. That often takes 2 years. We are still looking at around three years before anything is produced, no matter what the demand for the product is or how much money is thrown at getting it out of the ground.

Kd24 I take it you've look at the diagram. so you'll have seen the reference to the Orphan Period and seen the dip after it. My personal take on that is the Orphan period and the dip are usually caused by lack of funds. That does not apply to SML because they. have funds and an income stream. I believe that may reduce the feasability period by at least a year, perhaps more. Even then you are looking at at least a year for the feasability study. The result is that it could still take three years or more before startup can begin.

I am prepared to wait. It's obvious that many are not as patient.

Ontarget. You can't say I didn't tell you. But if you and your chums are prepared to dismiss something you know nothing about even though it is a standard reference document used throughout the mining industry. I wish you good luck. You'll need it.

Peas 123.

I'm no mining expert and I hope you are right. Nevertheless, the Lassonde Curve is named after Pierre Lassonde a renowned figure in the mining industry who created the concept. It's worth reading before you arbitrarily dismiss the concept because you disagree with it because you don't like it.

'Don’t think anyone said anything about 2 to 3 years for PFS!'

They didn't need to. it's explained in the Lassonde Curve. 2 to 3 years is what it generally takes a miner to complete the PFS.

That includes Engineering, Cost estimates, Optimisation, Operating costs, CAPEX and Reserve calculations. All have to worked out and calculated as part of the PFS. The Lassonde Curve estimates that 2 - 3 years is what it usually takes a mining company to complete the process. Before they can even begin to think about developing the mine.

If you don't believe me you can look it up for yourself. Just google Lassonde Curve.

The PFS could take 2 - 3 years to complete. That takes us into 28 or 29

Kd24

Look at it this way. It's likely to take a minimum of 4 years before anything is extracted from the ground.

Does that help put things into perspective.

We all have to be patient.

Going by what the Lassonde Curve says, most start up mining companies would expect to take about 6 years from where SML is now to having a working mine. Fortunately for us, SML has financial resources that many other start up companies don't have. So it might be possible that SML could have a working mine in about 4 to 5 years. I doubt if a tie in with TUN would speed the process up much because the benefit there would mostly come after SML's mine was operational.

You have to be a realist. When Zeus say 'One day' they mean precisely that. Zeus are professionals so they make professional statements.

Put your money in or not. It's your choice. If you put your in, live with your decision and wait patiently.

I'm mainly invested in the 3p and 4p ranges, with a few in the 5p and 6p ranges. That just shows how much of a clue I don't have. I hope it goes up tomorrow.

Good luck everyone.

Despite what I said about the folly of people forecasting precise share prices for tomorrow and for next week, I believe that the sp will go up. I don't have a clue when or by how much. All I am sure about is that I'm not the only one posting on this board not to have a clue about that.

It would take someone with vastly superior intelligence to me and well above average analytical skills and possibly access a very superior computer program dedicated to analysing future share price movements, to confidently predict what the sp will be tomorrow or next week. I certainly have no idea what the sp will be tomorrow or next week nor does any professional analyst I know. If they do, they're not telling me.

Being able to predict whether or not an sp might go up is a somewhat different matter. It's the precision of some of the forecasts, such as 10p or 13p I take issue with.

I could predict that the SML sp will be up by 50p by the end of next week but me, or anyone else saying so, won't make it happen.

Valii. Thanks for your response. I make no apologies for regurgitating what the Lassonde website had to say, and I do realise that the money that LMS has access to makes a difference to their timescales. My beef is with everyone who confidently predicts where the sp will be tomorrow or next week, etc. when they have no more idea than anyone else.

Tomorrow's MRE should make things clearer. I hope the market has a positive response to it.

We mustn't forget that most startup mining companies, like SML, often take around 4 to 5 years to get from where SML are now to having a mine in production. That allows for an average of 2 to 3 years feasibility study, followed by an average of 2 years to develop the mine. That takes into account the fact that SML are in a far better financial situation than most startup mining companies.

How far the sp increases while we are waiting for the mine to go into production, is anyone's guess. It's often quite a lot.

Panman. Perhaps I was being a bit ahead of myself about where on the curve we are at. If so, we might be entering the early stage of maximum volatility that could push the sp up very quickly. Even so, I think my earlier suggestions about the timescale to maximum productivity were sound.

Blacksheep15. I'm very glad you've made some cash and I hope that continues. Not just for you but for everyone else as well, including myself. However, if you look at the Lassonde Curve, note where SML is on the Curve and what still needs to be done, you'll see where I'm coming from. SML is at the speculation/discovery stage. The Lassonde Curve suggests that it could take another 5 years before extraction gets underway and an income is being generated. And that is allowing for the fact that SML is self funded so should be able to proceed at maximum speed.

This is in its early stages. We haven't reached the development stage yet. I'm not saying that It couldn't be successful but it could take a few years before we see the full value being realised. How many PIs have the patience to wait for that?