Member Info for Otherwys

Sampson,

I think there are a number of things at work here. First as you say is Zinc price; added to that is Trump's current spat with China (where we operate), and some nervousness about China's economy. Then I think a lot of PIs were expecting a dividend announcement which didn't happen, and the latest results announcement contained the prospect of the company investing in other opportunities (rather than returning cash to shareholders), which brought to many long-term holders a sour reminder of the Spitfire Oil debacle.

Personally I'm sitting tight; having sold some at 150ish I have a free carry on my remaining (small) holding so happy to wait for mine expansion.

Otherwys

Hi Razormac,

Their business model is pretty much as follows:
1. Raise money in the market;
2. Invest money in royalties;
3. Raise dividend;
4. Watch share price rise to contain yield;
5. Raise more money in the market (at a higher price given share price increase, therefore reduced dilution per £ raised)
6. Repeat as long as they can find suitable things to invest in...

Given the size of the US Royalty market, and the fact DUKE is first mover in Europe, there is a very long way to go before this train stops moving. This share is pure gold - rising dividends and capital growth.

I love the quote in the most recent RNS about raising the dividend once this new tranche of money is invested; think it says something about "approaching double digit yield". If you assume they're basing that on placing price of 44p, they're talking about hitting an annual dividend of probably 4p within 12m. The current dividend is 2.8p. If the share price reacts to contain yield to even 6%, a 4p annual dividend would equate to a share price of 66p.

What can go wrong? They are diversifying (geographically and by segments they invest in); so as they grow any risks reduce, but if one of their investee companies fails, they'd lose a proportion of their income; and if there's a recession or other event affecting multiple companies, their income may suffer too.

I love this share, I am heavily invested, and likely to buy more on any dips, but as always, DYOR!
Otherwys

Short interest in Babcock peaked on 4 April at 7.74%. At that point the price was 651p (ish). Since then short interest has reduced to 5.89% (although it's been reasonably stable around 6% since 16 April) and the price has gone up to today's 854p. I assume some of that price increase results from shorts closing, and some from good news like the recent contract extension and results. I am hoping short interests reduce significantly in the next few months, and I am hoping that will drive further price gains. Short interest rose rapidly from <1% around mid Nov 2017, when the price was in the low 800's, and seemed to coincide with price dropping in 2 tranches to low 600's. So if an increase in shorts of c. 7% along with negative sentiment helped drive a price fall of 200p, a reduction in shorts of let's say 5% from where we are now, together with improving/positive sentiment, could easily see this close to �10. That's my end of year target. GLA!

Ah, T+2 settlement. Knew I was missing something :) Thanks Otherwys

"In conjunction with CAML's 2017 annual results, the Board proposes a final 2017 dividend of 10 pence per Ordinary Share, bringing total dividends declared for the year to 16.5 pence (2016: 15.5 pence). These dividends equate to approximately 39% of the Kounrad gross revenue for the year and will be payable on 25 May 2018 to shareholders registered on 27 April 2018." Won't people selling today miss out on the divi, or is the above extract from the results inaccurate? Otherwys

Hi all, I would like to buy shares in BOKU but have been told by my broker (Halifax Share Dealing) that they can't set it up on their systems because it's subject to a Regulation S Category 3 Restriction - something to do with US persons. Has anyone here encountered the same thing and if so how/did you get around it? Many thanks Otherwys

Nice find; I think the African spin comes from the reporter, sounds to me like CAML are just continuing to look for quality assets. I had assumed they would take time to consolidate SASA before looking outwards again, sounds like these guys now have a real appetite for expansion. Wow, just imagine if we had another deal during 2018, plus a move to the main market...

I believe Corbyn is saying they'd pay for their nationalisation plans by giving shareholders in target companies government bonds instead. And I think I heard them say they'd be determining a "fair price" to pay - so not necessarily market value (probably much less). Personally if it looks likely that the loony left will be taking power at the next election I'll be selling. After 5 years of Corbyn et al printing money, government bonds will be junk anyway. Sadly, given the mess the Tories are making of Brexit, I think this is more likely than not. Hope I'm wrong... Otherwys

One positive for me was fuel sales: up from �4k to �63k. I like that growth rate! One negative was profit margin, which seems to have decreased to <10%. This is probably very distorted by the order/build/invoicing timelines though; we probably incur more costs than we invoice in early build stages of an order. I agree that they need to radically speed up build times; feels like every unit is bespoke built from scratch at the moment, and it needs to become much more mass production standardised. One big order? Thought we'd just had that from Shell for their German refinery... GLA Otherwys

It is worth bearing in mind the complexities of extracting cash from a Chinese subsidiary when considering the likely timing of a dividend. I believe Chinese subs are only allowed to repatriate profits via dividend to a foreign parent company once a year, after annual accounts have been audited and approved. Therefore I think it is highly unlikely that we will see a dividend announced as early as Q1; more likely in my opinion to be Q3. I am invested here (though not as heavily as I'd like!), and I like dividend too - just wanted to be realistic about timing. GLA Otherwys

"I think it is more than just a play on zinc" Well I guess it's also a play on gold (to a limited extent), and on getting the new license (which would provide a major boost); but for me at least the main reason to be invested here is Zinc fundamentals. GFM is, after all, a zinc miner... LME Zinc levels falling, zinc mines elsewhere closing, no new mines opening for a while and demand strong (as long as economy/infrastructure investment continues). Very strong fundamentals for GFM. That said, it's never wrong to take a profit. I sold half my holding here a while back to give myself a free carry on the rest; wish I had a whole heap more than I do, but I can't see a reason to sell any more for a while yet.

Absolutely agree - love the fact they have no debt, and the profits are already rolling in. Fingers crossed for the license, but even without it GFM are generating plenty of cash. Would be lovely if they decide to pay a dividend too...

GFM is a play on Zinc (obviously). Why sell before the Zinc cycle turns? Personally I don't expect that to happen for at least 2 years. In the meantime, this company will be minting it (barring unexpected events of course). Depends if you're an investor or a trader I guess! GLA Otherwys

With a MCAP of c. £1bn I wonder whether the BOD are tempted to do a fund raise at £10 to wipe out debt and provide working capital for expansion? Would be minimal dilution at this price, and if something like that is in the offing that would explain the recent price drop... Just speculating!

" Duke Royalty Limited (AIM: DUKE), the royalty financing company, is pleased to announce a proposed conditional placing and subscription ("Fundraising") to raise at least �20 million, before expenses, by way of a Placing of New Shares at a price of 40 pence per share (the Issue Price) and a Subscription by certain overseas investors on the same terms. The net proceeds of the Fundraising will allow the Company, inter alia, to continue to finance its diversified pipeline of royalty financing opportunities. Highlights � Proposed Placing and Subscription to raise gross proceeds of at least �20 million � Net proceeds to diversify portfolio of royalty investments and provide working capital � Two new potential royalty partners in advanced stages of negotiation � Additional proceeds to execute on new identified opportunities and/or follow on investments in existing royalty partners � Following deployment of capital, Duke could have exposure to up to 6 underlying companies through four Royalty Partners � Increased dividend yield expected following deployment of capital � Issue price of 40p per share" Excellent news, fundraising at minimal discount, targets for investment at very advanced stages of negotiation, returning >13% yield, and an expected dividend hike once completed. Not quite as I'd anticipated but very happy with this all the same. Hope others join the party soon! GLA Otherwys

I would think that ITM already have all the evidence and tests Mr Gove's dept would require; so as a suggestion it might be worth sharing your response with ITM and getting them to engage more directly with the department? I agree, government is way behind on this and needs a rude awakening; there are too many benefits (not just ��� for us PIs) to allow government ineptitude to become an obstacle. GLA Otherwys

"We know this share is under attack from shorters It has been in their control for over a year." Sorry, where are you getting that information from? Short Interest Tracker shows no discloseble positions against MTFB. Thanks Otherwys

I am amazed that CMCL share price appears to be unaffected by the news from Zim. While it looks possible that the news could turn out to be good for the country in the long run, there is certainly a degree of uncertainty about the eventual outcome, and Mr Market hates uncertainty. But apparently not in this case! GLA Otherwys

As I understand it (and correct me if I'm wrong), PPG gets a fixed annual fee for each of this first batch of generating sites. They are already getting that fee, so commissioning the sites in itself doesn't do anything for PPG's income. What it does do is start to build up value in the individual generating companies, in which PPG holds a (non-controlling) interest. I believe the expectation is that these underlying companies will be sold off in 2019 (something to do with EIS rules), and that's when PPG will realise the benefits of whatever income/profits those companies have produced in the meantime. Mr Market of knows all this and will no doubt price in some of the underlying activity; but personally I wouldn't expect PPG share price to shoot up massively on commissioning news. Hope I'm wrong, I am invested here and I like the business model a lot, I'm just not expecting to realise full value before 2019. GLA and DYOR! Otherwys

It feels like there's a fair bit of confusion about this company. I've been following the story for a while, so for those who are interested here it is in a nutshell. IEH (Intelligent Energy), a fuel cell company with lots of good IP, got into financial difficulties and managed to find someone to bail them out. That was Meditor (with a few minority partners), the bail out was in the form of a Convertible Loan Note (CLN), no-one else was interested in putting any money in. The terms of the CLN were pretty punitive, and the CLN holders had security over the operating company which owned all the IP (not the listed holding company). IEH continued trading, hoping to start making sales and profits enough to dig themselves out of the financial hole. They couldn't manage it, and finally ran out of cash around end September this year. No-one was willing to put any more money in. So IEH sold the operating company and all the IP to Meditor for �19m; then used the �19m to pay off the CLN (I think this was about 65p in the pound). So Meditor got the operating company and the IP, plus 65% of their CLN investment back, whereas the other minority CLN holders took a hit of c. 35% on their investment. The company said in an RNS in black and white that there was no value left in IEH shares. With no operating company, IEH no longer has a business; and having paid off the CLN it has virtually no assets. They have made clear their intention to delist and wind down, they have said that the remaining assets will just about cover that and there won't be anything left for shareholders. They have now changed their name, I expect this is probably because Meditor now own the operating company that still trades under the name "Intelligent Energy" and they don't want any confusion. What's now listed is just a shell, it no longer has any link to Intelligent Energy. All of the above can be verified by reading the RNSs issued under ticker IEH. It's a bit convoluted, but it's all there. As to why they've set up a new website, well I haven't bothered looking at the website but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a listing requirement these days for a company listed on LSE to have a website; even if it's in the process of delisting and winding up. I imagine delisting can take some time. In any event, I personally would not touch this company with a bargepole; I will run a mile if any company I'm invested in starts dealing with Meditor; and I have put the names of the IEH directors on a personal list of directors to avoid like the plague. Anyone investing in "LB-Shell" in my view would be better off sticking their money on Red 12 and taking a spin of the roulette wheel... GLA Otherwys