Member Info for Otherwys

On the arbitrage point, approx. 58m shares in Cygnus have been traded since the deal was announced; this is almost 5% of the total shares in issue. If (as seems likely) the majority of these have been purchased by arbitrage funds, the yes vote has already increased from 29.9% to c. 34%.

In addition, the 29.9% committed yes vote does not include directors’ options and rights which are expected to vest pre vote; taking those into account adds another c. 3% to the yes vote.

Cheers all

Ian

4. CAML’s Evolved M&A Playbook

• Lessons from 2025: Management has clearly learned from last year's failed, messy cash bid for New World Resources (NWC), which was gatecrashed by private equity.

• Strategic Pivot: CAML has switched from cash to an all-scrip structure (making it harder for private equity to spoil) and secured ironclad pre-commitments behind closed doors rather than fighting a public open-market battle on the ASX.

• Neutralizing Criticism: Anticipating the classic Australian retail backlash against holding UK AIM shares, CAML proactively baked a commitment into the deed to seek a dual listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX).

Hi all,

Following the proposed takeover announcement I’ve been asking lots of questions of AI on relevant topics. I thought I’d post a summary here in case it’s of interest. Apologies if all of this is glaringly obvious to everyone! When the deal was announced I was worried we might be heading into another failed deal, especially reading comments on Hotcopper from posters like Sharetrader78. However having looked into it more my view is that this is a great deal, well structured and a great fit for both companies (even if Hotcopper investors don’t see it that way). I already hold a significant proportion of my portfolio in CAML; I will be adding more before the vote and TSX listing.

GLA and DYOR!

Ian

1. Deal Likelihood & Structural Moat

• High Probability of Success: The deal is highly likely to proceed as described due to unanimous Cygnus Board backing and early voting commitments covering 29% of the registry.

• Low Risk of a Bidding War: High structural barriers protect the deal, including standard break fees and "Right to Match" clauses.

• The 9.9% Call Option "Poison Pill": CAML secured a Call Option Deed over Ocean Partners’ 9.9% stake. If a rival launches a superior bid, CAML can forcibly buy these shares. Holding a physical 9.9% stake gives CAML a near-insurmountable veto over any competitor under Australian scheme rules (which require 75% approval).

2. An Unusually Wide Arbitrage Gap (16%)

• Skepticism Premium: The current arbitrage gap sits at roughly 16%, significantly wider than the typical 5–10% seen at this stage. This is driven by structural and psychological factors rather than deal failure risk.

• Cross-Border Friction: Australian retail investors face logistical challenges holding or trading UK AIM-listed stocks. Many are actively dumping Cygnus shares on the open market to lock in cash rather than deal with international scrip conversion.

• Volatility and the "AIM Discount": Junior mining volatility over a 3-month waiting window and the historically lower liquidity of the London AIM market versus the ASX are compounding the discount.

3. Retail Dumping vs. Arbitrage Buying

• Volume Exploded: Trading data on the ASX confirms heavy retail profit-taking and selling pressure. Intraday price spikes have been rapidly sold into, flatlining the price at A$0.13.

• Institutions Stepping In: Specialized arbitrage and hedge funds are already aggressively buying these cheap shares, with the first "Substantial Holder" (5%+) notices already filed.

• The Paired-Trade Strategy: These funds buy Cygnus (long) and short CAML in London to lock in the 16% spread risk-free.

• Voting Certainty: Arbitrage funds are pure math players and will universally vote "YES" to prevent deal breakage. Retail frustration is essentially transferring voting power to institutional players who are highly incentivized to see the deal cross the finish line.

Hi,

Long term holder here, lurker on the boards. AI suggests 2029-2030 for first production (existing infrastructure, supportive government and community, internal funding all positive for fast track).

Looks to me like they’ve also done a lot to set this deal up for success with Cygnus shareholders - learning from their experience with Antler.

Fingers crossed, all the best guys!

Ian

Just following up on this, I’ve now spoken to HL (my SIPP provider). They only allow transactions on the TSX shares of WPM. Is this the same for other brokers? Does anyone with a holding in WPM hold shares denominated in GBP and bought on the LSE?

If none of the UK brokers actually use the LSE listing, it would seem a bit pointless WPM bothering with it - extra cost for no additional liquidity benefit.

Best wishes and GLA

Hiya,

Just looking into this, interesting company and looks like a nice way to get exposure to precious metals. I see it’s listed on LSE as well as NYSE and TSX. I am a bit confused though - on this site it’s listed with a share price in GBP and currency GBP, but when I look it up on HL (my broker) it shows a price in CAD and a ticker “WPM NPV”. Is HL quoting me for Something other than the LSE listed shares of this company, or is that just how you buy Wheaton shares in the UK?

Thanks for any insights!

I'm working on the IFRS17 implementation project for one of those big insurers. Anyone who thinks this is going to create consistent reporting across insurers is going to be disappointed. It's just changing one set of smoke and mirrors for another - and costing a ton of cash to do so. I agree with Sage and Phyl - the bigwigs will find a way to ensure this change doesn't affect share price adversely. God forbid they should put their bonuses at risk!

I asked the company about their Kounrad offtake agreement and routes to market because I was worried about the whole Russia / Ukraine thing. Their contract with their offtake partner is effectively a factory gate sale - CAML have no responsibility - or risk - in getting copper from Kaz to Europe (or wherever). So if Russia / Ukraine become a no-go area, it's up to their offtake partner to find another route; the contract still holds. I found that very reassuring.

Best
Otherwys

Auxly seems to have a MCAP of about 400m CAD, so a 123m CAD investment if converted to equity would be a c. 20% stake.

Roll on the wacky weed!

Otherwys

I am guessing, the risk of conflict between the West and China over their territorial claims in the SCS; which would add uncertainty to global economy and Chinese enterprises if it materialised.

Otherwys

Given CAML don't currently operate in Africa, can we take his presence at Indaba as evidence of ongoing "sniffing around" for a deal? I would imagine it's a good place to talk to multiple potential targets in one go rather than running around all over the place to see them one at a time.

My money is now on the next acquisition (whenever it may arrive) being in Africa! And I'm not sure how I feel about that as an idea - I've been stung by mining investments in Africa turning sour before.

Z

Shame about Shuak but I like that they're open and upfront about it.

Very promising that they have 2 potential targets on the table, I wonder whether current metals weakness may be providing a brief window when we can get a good deal done. Looking forward to seeing how this develops.

Otherwys

Might want to check out the share news tab; a few broker upgrades landed this morning :)

Happy New Year Sageman.

I was a bit of a lurker on the iii board but always valued your contributions. I hope you receive a warmer welcome here than on ADVFN! LSE seems to be quieter than ADVFN generally but for some reason I find it harder to log on to ADVFN so only really contribute on LSE nowadays (on any share). I am Otherwys on all boards.

I sold about half my holding in the 60's having held since the 20's; and then half the remaining in the 140's before the peak so have banked a healthy profit (although it was only a small holding compared to yours and others, and I have kicked myself several times for not putting more in when it was in the 20's!). Now just holding for license and / or dividend, but may be tempted to put more in if it falls back further.

I've always been a little nervous around Griffin - China, Bermuda, sparse communications etc - but clearly the prospects are excellent.

I wonder if you've looked at CAML at all? That's probably my top resource stock at the moment (Cu, Pb, Zn), and they have a track record of returning value to shareholders too.

Best wishes for 2019
Otherwys

Mostly true at the moment, but hydrogen can also be made using electrolysis of water (this is what ITM power do); the electricity for which can come from surplus renewables (sunny windy days when we otherwise see load shedding). Hydrogen can also be stored in the gas grid (which was originally designed for hydrogen not natural gas), so it can add flexibility and resilience to our energy mix.

Of course new technology is expensive initially, but Toyota for instance plan to increase production of H2 cars tenfold which will bring prices down. How much was a first generation electric car or hybrid?

As to safety, do you seriously think regulatory authorities would allow car companies to sell mini-Hindenbergs to Joe public? If hydrogen cars were rolling bombs just waiting to go off no company would be selling them. Can you imagine the backlash if one were to blow up? It would make the VW emissions scandal look like peanuts.

Feel free to keep your head in the sand jamesroo, but hydrogen is an important part of our energy future.

jamesroo,
You could try Hyundai dealerships for the ix35; Toyota dealerships for the Mirai; Honda dealerships for the Clarity which is due for launch soon I think.
Welcome aboard the hydrogen revolution :)
Otherwys

Agreed JMO; but by reducing how much oil we burn for fuel/energy we give ourselves more time to find alternatives to plastics. To date there's been no incentive because plastic has been so cheap; as oil becomes more scarce/costly the incentives for finding renewable alternatives increase.

...you might want to tell that to Toyota, who are already selling a hydrogen fuel cell car (the Mirai); or to Shell, who are slowly but surely rolling out hydrogen refuelling points on their UK forecourts... or to the Met Police, who are moving to a fleet of Hydrogen vehicles...

Have a look at ITM Power if you want the up to date picture on hydrogen technology.

Otherwys

Hi all,

I often see Asiamet (ARS - unfortunate ticker) mentioned in discussions about CAML. Just wanted to throw out there that I think a buyout of ARS by CAML would make for a very interesting group; CAML could develop the ARS prospects using its free cashflow - no further dilution - and with copper assets looking to boom over coming years with the much anticipated supply deficit, increasing CAMLs copper production would be very welcome. I believe ARS' first project will be using SX-EW technology too so could be synergies in terms of CAML's existing know-how in this area.

This is purely speculative and based on nothing but my imagination; and I expect it won't happen - I expect CAML are focussed for now on paying down debt and maximising output from SASA. They may also be looking for further diversification rather than concentrating on a single metal, which would probably be wise. But still, nice to dream a bit :)

Looking forward to tomorrow's results; I hope there's also a repeat mention of the possibility to move to main market.

GLA
Otherwys

I can't find the detail, just the notice. Difficult to form any view without it!