Member Info for otemple

In comparison to trins it is, they are valued higher despite tiny production and higher breakevens. They do have some prospects but so do Trin, no way they should be valued higher than Trin or close imho

I'd assume because Cerp valuation looked crazy in comparison to Trin. Can only assume the slide rule went over Trin too but no way the team would have been willing to sell out at anything close to these low levels.

Probably worth a question at the AGM though as to whether they approached us too....

Dropping like a stone ;-) brilliant

Give or take a few pence, probably.

Can't validate the data but an interesting read and frequently highlights Trin as being comparitively cheap

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/eskoil-ltd_a-snapshot-of-the-key-aim-ep-players-activity-6675718188820422656-whxX

Added again via SB just now, feel like it's about to finally wake up!

Averaged down in my wife's ISA last night and took an opening position myself this morning as price seems to have to stabilised and seems to be factoring in fairly significant fear/ disappointment. Hopefully the next update will bring at least some good news on cash and customers which will start a rerate from here.....

Great news and shows the bod are keen to keep things moving here with £1.50 now to be paid out shortly. Should see a nice tick up from here today

As per my response on advfn to this and a couple of other messages, this is rubbish. Read the broker note that came out yesterday, FCF forecast at £48m - for a start EBITDA will fall due to CV19 impact so in what way would extrapolating last year's data make sense!!! Loads of other great info in there. It's available free on research tree and whilst long could be read a lot quicker than one day's worth of comments here from a lot of people who clearly don't understand what they have invested in.....

GLA

No workover, the comment is poorly written and I can see why you interpreted as you did but the presentation last night and the Cenkos note were very clear on this point. Suggest you have a watch / read.

Nice to see a ST tip today as per usual. Shame it has come on such a risk off day!!

JAdam,

Why do you think the intangibles are going to be impaired? All the businesses are performing well (hence no impairment this year) and as most relates to roadside I am not sure why you think this would need impairment. Doesn't make any sense! Anything to add to your comment? Do you have much experience producing or auditing accounts?

The low was c.12p intraday (should have bought more!) just over a month ago and as you would expect there has been profit taking all along the way, so not sure where your 40% comes from. Feels like what is happening here currently but who knows! Still feel 50p as a short to mid target feels realistic so small moves are not that important - trend is still up which is what matters

Chrishar

Thanks but I am not sure about that!

For me it is a quality business with a good reputation and reasonably sticky customer base. The management team seem good and I am reassured by share purchases.

Yes it looks cheap on a PE measure but on an enterprise level (mrk cap + debt) it doesn't look so cheap! The risk is just the debt level as it leaves no wriggle room and the fact that a large chunk needs refinancing in 2022. The last few months have shown that we should expect the unexpected and when a business has this much debt it doesn't take much to bring a company down. Wrt to refinancing, if the business keeps performing then either they will successfully refinance or they may (I hope) do something more innovative with bond holders which will transform the balance sheet and ultimately the valuation. What they might do is beyond my pay grade but the lack of asset backing puts the equity holders in a strong position as without a deal or refinance, bond holders (& equity holders) will be left with nothing. Nobody wants that.

As I said previously, the potential share price performance here could be superb but there are a lot of people who imho are trying to ramp this to inexperience people as a safe bet, which it is not.

I do expect/ hope to see this at c. 50p in the next few months and if so I may de-risk my position whilst retaining half in the hope of considerably higher (a few years out), but a lot can change in a few months....

Classic Saturday night ramble after a few glasses of wine - apologies! Good luck all

Hi David

That makes more sense, so much in that update it's hard to focus on the right stuff sometimes!!

No, unfortunately not. The £0.9bn is just one of a number of bonds - total net debt at year end was £2.6bn. the focus is on the 2022 debt as it is the next batch due for repayment and clearly we don't have a cat in hell's Chance of repaying it (bar a capital raise). Risk here is the bond market remains depressed, which is why this is high risk. My own view is that the management team are strong and have a plan so I am willing to trust them. No benefit to the bond holders calling the debt in as the AA don't really have any tangible assets so in their interest to agree to a deal of some description. God knows what and all speculation but if they pull it off the share price will be 5 - 10x where we are now. If not, it's probably a zero. I like the risk reward but the position size is appropriate for the risk.

GLA.....

Davidwood, how on earth do you think they will be debt free in 4/5 years? I assume you don't think they will trade the debt away as I'd estimate they will still have c. £2bn debt by then. Company is performing well and can service (and gradually repay) the debt but will take a clever deal with debt holders to get out of this state in that timeframe! Fingers crossed as I rate the board and suspect and hope they have such a plan......

Bought back in today - should have a very strong trading update (particularly the cash balance) coupled with partial return to work announcement. Looks good risk / reward to me

I was there too when the placing was announced, am down close to £200k since peak so not impressed with my own decision making process but clearly trinity is in a better place than ever. Suggest you read the announcement in conjunction with the Cenkos note that adds further details, rather than using historical data out of context.

I do think the BoD have made a mistake by not announcing a temporary pay cuts through this period though.

On the contrary, the longer this goes on the more he looks like a genius! Massive cash call (equivalent to c. 2/3rds of current mrk cap) and then sat on the cash.

Clearly wasn't the plan but can he get the business through this and come out transformed with some cleaver deals/ acquisitions?? Stranger things of happened.....

Two places tbf and quickly realised no point posting anything on advfn. So far similar here.

Anyway, I was quite reassured as was expecting far worse, so having watched for a while I started buying some here. Business certainly appeared on the road to recovery before this hit so hopefully just a bump in the road of that journey and glad to have had an opportunity to add at what looks to be a pretty reasonable price.

Hopefully get a better idea of impacts on the 28th

Any views on today's announcement?

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-proposes-help-motor-finance-high-cost-credit-customers-coronavirus