focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
From 2022 to 2024, the research analysts were WRONG about their (bullish) year end oil price predictions. (Although their own trading desks made profits!) This year, the research analyst narrative about oil prices is bearish.
Mispriced, strong buy.
Patience
When you look back from the year of first oil, the year of FID will not matter.
Will there be first oil with Navitas? Yes.
50% FID 2024
50% FID 2025
Patience.
"We are hopeful that this new funding will largely or entirely fulfil our equity requirements for Sea Lion which will only become clear once the project and financing have been finalised."
RKH rushed to monetize even before the annulment hearings commenced. Why?
No there is no real price. This is an illiquid share. You own a sliver of a startup oil explorer without finance yet. Similar to a very long dated call option on oil.
True price will be discovered at first oil.
Mispriced. Cheap. Strong buy.
Patience.
As Shenandoah nears first oil, Beacon announces FID at Winterfell.
https://www.beaconoffshore.com/media
Signals what Navitas would also do.
Patience
This share price is hostage to illiquidity. Also, institutional apathy to small cap UK E&P. News did not move the RKH share price for two years, and news will not move the price now. Chances to take profits only at first oil, or at the inevitable takeout. Mispriced. Strong Buy.
At max, up 20% to 25% in 2024.
Patience.
Sea Lion must get more focus from Navitas after the 4th Shenandoah Development Drilling completes (planned June?)
There should be one more allocation remaining. Unlikely that this is the final number of warrants that were exercised. I may be wrong. Maybe someone check with RKH. Quite odd that more than 20 million were not taken up.
A takeout of RKH is too complicated to attempt. Other targets are easier.
(Harbour Energy found Wintershall DEA, for example.)
Trust Gideon. For share price, wait for a few years until first oil.
Patience.
NVPT has touched 3300 today. Up more than 2x since their March results last year. More due to Shenandoah. Market rewards Navitas because it meets guidance.
Alas RKH has exhausted credibility with institutions. That too will change, with first oil. Until then.
Patience.
13p by 31 Dec 2024
+25% at similar trade volumes. Doesn't yet tick boxes for new institutional buying.
RKH ended 2021 at 8p, moved up 2p in 2 years, not knowing these RNS releases in 2022 and 2023.
June-July 2022, Placing and Subscription, Open Offer
July 2022, 2-year extension, NFB Licenses run until 1 November 2024
Sep 2022, Navitas Transaction Completion
Nov 2022, SFB licenses extended until December 2024
March 2023, NSAI shows reduced upfront capex, reduced life of field costs, and increased recoverable resources
Dec 2023, Monetisation of Ombrina Mare Arbitration Award, provides near-term certainty for Rockhopper
Dec 2023, CEO exercises Warrants to own 0.79% of Issued Share Capital
Today, there is certainty.
2024 looks bright.
Patience.
"potential bid target"
Domestic bonds on TASE will not need the UK Gov Guarantee. A commercial matter for an Israeli operator, rightly. FIG can slash royalty if they can't help with the bonds. Those gents on the TV read a planted script.
Patience.
HMG will not help. Yet.
But.
FIG can slash royalty. Maybe.
Patience.
We will all be paid for our Chutzpah. The audacity to open a new oil & gas province. How dare we? Neither luck, nor management.
Patience.
Reading too much between the lines. Sam need not exercise any warrants simply because he may need his personal savings for his family.
Patience.
Any investor who wanted exposure to Sea Lion today, would rather express their view via TLV.NVPT for lower risk. RKH is next in line.
Patience.
NVPT is up +100% 2x during the time from their Annual '22 (March '23) to Q3 '23 (Nov '23). Question Why? Answer - Shenandoah and Sea Lion progress. Mr Market believes Navitas. Compare NVPT as the operator versus PMO / HBR, share price movements between results. Navitas delivers on guidance. For example, Buckskin, Shenandoah.
Remember, the Shenandoah FID was delayed from 2020 to 2021, but got done in a much tougher macro environment. Just saying keep watch for the other milestones before the Sea Lion FID. Pinch of salt.
Patience.