Member Info for OscarGolf

Tbow112, what connection between Cascade and New York have you identified?

Also, I think that the discounted sale of Sable shares being offered to Cascade is not simply because they are US financial institutions. I think it is also because:

1) they are two funds with a lot of cash to deploy into Longonjo;

2) they have experience of listing companies like Pensana on NASDAQ;

3) they have experience of helping companies like Pensana to enter into offtake agreements and other supply chain agreements with US customers;

4) they have "Decades of experience across commodities and mining"; and

5) they have "Deep expertise in rare earth operations".

If I were a betting man, I'd put a wager on it being these two:

5 JPMorgan Asset Management ~$4.0T

6 Goldman Sachs Asset Management ~$3.1T

Their website https://cascadenaturalresources.com/ states that "Cascade Natural Resources was founded by experienced managers to build a global portfolio of rare earth mining assets. The platform takes selective participations in rare earth projects worldwide, guided by a long-term investment approach and deep sector expertise."

At the Pensana meeting on 9 March 2026, Paul Atherley stated that Cascade is owned by two large funds based in the USA. He said they are similar to M&G, but much larger (I assume he means in terms of AUM). However, they have asked Pensana not to disclose their identities at this stage. He said they have experience of listing other companies on NASDAQ.

Novice157, the company did a last minute switch from selling 144,508,671 shares in Pensana for US$160million to selling (a) 13.55million shares in Pensana for 80p each = £10.84m (approx. US$14.5m at today's FX rate of US$1.34/£1) and (b) 38.2% of Sable for US$150million, because it needed at least 75% of shareholder votes at the general meeting to be in favour of the sale and it didn't have sufficient shareholder support. So, instead, it is selling the maximum number of Pensana shares it can (without asking shareholders for approval to waive the pre-emption rights) and selling shares in Sable (which do not require approval by Pensana's shareholders).

If Chinasyndrome is correct that the "Pie will have grown from US$1.6B to US$2.87B", Cascade are getting pie worth US$779m (i.e. 27.13% * US$2.87B) for only US$150m.

Therefore, is Pensana selling this slice of pie too cheaply to Cascade, or is US$150m a fair price today for pie that will be worth US$779m in the future?

The RNS announcement on 4 February 2026 stated, "Pensana is pleased to announce that, further to the Longonjo Main Finance announcement of 15 May 2025 wherein the Company announced the US$25 million equity tranche ("the Financing") to be deployed by the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund ("FSDEA") at subsidiary level into Ozango Minerais sa ("Ozango"), the final funding tranche of the Financing has been received and is currently being fully deployed towards the Longonjo main construction workstreams. Pursuant to receipt by Ozango of the US$25 million, the Company's majority ownership in Ozango should reduce from 84% to 68.4%."

So, currently, Pensana plc owns 100% of Sable and Sable owns 68.4% of Ozango/Longonjo, so Pensana owns 68.4% of Ozango/Longonjo.

If Cascade purchases 38.2% of Sable, then Pensana plc will own 61.8% of Sable and Sable owns 68.4% of Ozango/Longonjo, so Pensana will own 42.27% of Ozango/Longonjo.

Since Cascade is paying US$150m for its 26.13% indirect interest in Ozango/Longonjo, this implies a current valuation of US$574m (approx. £428m) for 100% of Ozango/Longonjo. And, it implies a current valuation of US$243m (£181m) for Pensana's 42.27% indirect interest in Ozango/Longonjo. This is much lower than Pensana's current market cap of £332m, which means that the market is valuing Pensana's 42.27% indirect interest in Ozango/Longonjo much higher than the value implied by Pensana's sale to Cascade. The conclusion is that, at only US$150m, Pensana is selling the 38.2% interest in Sable to Cascade far too cheaply.

The look-through ownership of Ozango/Longonjo will then be as follows:

42.27% Pensana plc

26.13% Cascade

15.60% FSDEA via ASF Yova Mining

16.00% other (inc. Angolan government)

100% total

The weighted average price for Q1 is wrong, because 194.9/37.7 = 5.17 (not 5.57).

The RNS states "In Q1 2023, the Company sold 37.7 MMcf of gas (Q4: 27.3 MMcf) for US$ 194,900 (Q4: US$ 149,000), resulting in a weighted average price of approximately US$ 5.57/Mcf (Q4: US$ 5.45/Mcf)".

The weighted average price for Q4 is correct, because 149/27.3 = 5.45

However, the weighted average price for Q4 is wrong, because 194.9/37.7 = 5.17 (not 5.57).

It is a bit sloppy that the RNS contains an error like this, because it is easy to check the average calculations and detect such a basic error.

Chesh,

No, in order to move his shares from one account to another, Alastair Ferguson wouldn't have to sell and then buy back into the new nominee account. Anyone could transfer his/her shares from one broker to another broker without having to sell and buy back his/her shares by simply arranging a share transfer from one broker to another broker.

Previously, Block's website used to show the following in the list of significant shareholders:

Mr Alastair Ferguson 29,494,242
Global Prime Partners (Jon Fitzpatrick) 21,616,264

Now, in the list of significant shareholders, Block's website shows no holding by Global Prime Partners (Jon Fitzpatrick) and the following holding (which is probably beneficially owned by Alastair Ferguson, because it is the same number of shares):

Barnard Nominees Limited 29,494,242 4.29%

If the shares held by Barnard Nominees Limited are beneficially owned by Alastair Ferguson, he still owns over 4% of Block's shares, but Jon Fitzpatrick might no longer own at least 3% of shares.

Chesh,

G.P. (Jersey) Limited sent that TR-1 form to Block to notify that the holding had decreased to zero shares, but no TR-1 form seems to have been sent to Block by Jon Fitzpatrick to notify crossing below the 3% threshold or by Alastair Ferguson to notify crossing below the 4%/3% thresholds, because no such TR-1 forms have been published by Block but their names have disappeared from the significant shareholders list. Puzzling!

Chesh,

G.P. (Jersey) Limited sent that TR-1 form to Block to notify that the holding had decreased to zero shares, but no TR-1 form seems to have been sent to Block by Jon Fitzpatrick to notify crossing below the 3% threshold or by Alastair Ferguson to notify crossing below the 4%/3% thresholds, because no such TR-1 forms have been published by Block but their names have disappeared from the significant shareholders list. Puzzling!

Chesh,

Yes, you're right that Alastair Ferguson's holding is also missing from the list.

The following RNS announcement on 25 November 2020 stated that Alastair Ferguson owned 21,874,242 shares, which was 4.99% of the issued shares.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/block_energy/news/rns/story/xjqm5gr

Today, Block's website shows the following list of significant shareholders, but Alastair Ferguson's holding is missing from the list.

So, either Alastair Ferguson's holding has decreased below 4% and 3% and he has failed to send a TR-1 form to Block, or Block has incorrectly removed Alastair Ferguson's name from the list of significant shareholders on its website.

Significant Shareholders | 08 February 2023
Significant Shareholders Number of Shares % of Issued Ordinary Share Capital
Hargreaves Lansdown (Nominees) Limited 92,064,364 13.53%
Interactive Investor Services Nominees Limited 83,205,007 12.20%
Amati AIM VCT plc 51,136,000 7.45%
Intertrust Employee Benefit Trustee Limited as trustee of The Block Energy plc Employee Benefit Trust 42,080,741 6.13%
Barnard Nominees Limited 29,494,242 4.29%
Vidacos Nominees Limited 36,369,154 4.09%
Lynchwood Nominees Limited 31,072,100 4.57%
Barclays Direct Investing Nominees Limited 22,466,274 3.27%
Edale Capital LLP (Edale Europe Absolute Master
Fund) 21,693,706 3.16%
Mr Paul Haywood (Director) 12,544,381 1.82%
Jindal Petroleum (Georgia) Limited 12,000,000 1.75%
Plutus Strategies Ltd (of which Paul Haywood is a shareholder) 3,166,837 0.46%
Mr Philip Anthony Dimmock (Director) 2,942,357 0.45%
Dr Kenneth Seymour (Director) 1,880,972 0.28%
Mr Jeremy Asher (Director) 1,454,309 0.23%

The following RNS announcement on 06 January 2021 stated that Jon Fitzpatrick owned 24,516,264 shares, which was 3.99% of the issued shares.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/block_energy/news/rns/story/r7jn9vr

Today, Block's website shows the following list of significant shareholders, but Jon Fitzpatrick's holding is missing from the list.

So, either Jon Fitzpatrick's holding has decreased below 3% and he has failed to send a TR-1 form to Block, or Block has incorrectly removed Jon Fitzpatrick's holding from the list of significant shareholders on its website.

Significant Shareholders | 08 February 2023
Significant Shareholders Number of Shares % of Issued Ordinary Share Capital
Hargreaves Lansdown (Nominees) Limited 92,064,364 13.53%
Interactive Investor Services Nominees Limited 83,205,007 12.20%
Amati AIM VCT plc 51,136,000 7.45%
Intertrust Employee Benefit Trustee Limited as trustee of The Block Energy plc Employee Benefit Trust 42,080,741 6.13%
Barnard Nominees Limited 29,494,242 4.29%
Vidacos Nominees Limited 36,369,154 4.09%
Lynchwood Nominees Limited 31,072,100 4.57%
Barclays Direct Investing Nominees Limited 22,466,274 3.27%
Edale Capital LLP (Edale Europe Absolute Master
Fund) 21,693,706 3.16%
Mr Paul Haywood (Director) 12,544,381 1.82%
Jindal Petroleum (Georgia) Limited 12,000,000 1.75%
Plutus Strategies Ltd (of which Paul Haywood is a shareholder) 3,166,837 0.46%
Mr Philip Anthony Dimmock (Director) 2,942,357 0.45%
Dr Kenneth Seymour (Director) 1,880,972 0.28%
Mr Jeremy Asher (Director) 1,454,309 0.23%