RE: Morning all1 Mar 2019 10:28
Petroteq - billion $ company in the making? That's what the independent NY Times article talked about a while ago. Well if the technology works it will be. To support this valuation:
Land grab - the first leases - they originally purchased leases holding 87M mineable costing US$ 0M (which they say in the presentation works out at US$0.10 per barrel of oil)
Then a few weeks back they spend another US$10.8M on acquiring 41M additional mineable acreage. (Note the doubling to US$0.20 cost per barrel but still very cheap)
Discounted for risk it looks look like they now have around 128M in total of mineable oil/bitumen
So calcs:
"Netback margins between $17-$25/bbl at $50 WTI" per latest presentation on PQE website. Note WTI has moved up to $57, so conservatively use netback of $25 x 128M = US $3.2 billion.
Latest land grab (41M mineable barrels)
"According to a report titled “Evaluation of Contingent Resources” from Chapman Petroleum Engineering, Ltd. dated December 31, 2018 (the “Chapman Report”), the 50% interests in the P.R. Springs leases to be acquired by TMC are estimated to contain gross contingent resources of 45 million barrels of mineable oil/bitumen in place, with an “arithmetic average after risk” estimate, determined on a net basis (discounted by risk and royalty), of 20.38 million barrels of mineable oil/bitumen in place. Based on certain assumptions in the Chapman Report concerning forecasted oil prices and a recovery factor, the mineable resources that are attributable to the interests in the P.R. Spring lease to be acquired by TMC have an estimated “after risk” cash flow value of US$1.19 billion on an undiscounted basis, a cash flow value of US$153.2 million on a 10%/year discounted basis, and a cash flow value of US$86.2 million on a 15%/year discounted basis.
According to the Chapman Report, the 50% interests in the Tar Sands Triangle leases to be acquired by TMC are estimated to contain gross contingent resources of 41.3 million barrels of in situ oil/bitumen in place, with an “arithmetic average after risk” estimate, determined on a net basis (discounted by risk and royalty), of 20.7 million barrels of in situ oil/bitumen in place. No economic evaluation of the resources contained in the Tar Sands Triangle leases has been conducted.
The Chapman Report was prepared in compliance with the COGE Handbook and NI 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities.
So strategy - (1) buy up already de-risked land as cheaply as possible - latest comment:
"This acquisition is part of the Company’s larger strategy of developing a long term strategic capability to produce oil for decades. Strategically, it makes sense for the Company to acquire assets now on a cost-effective basis, so that if valuations in the region rise, the Company will already have a large resource base to monetize without having to pay incrementally higher prices for land and mineral resources."
(2) Monetise it - commercial