Member Info for orslega

Keep it simple Joe.

In your opinion then what is the likely cost of the extended well test ONLY at Itumbula West drill site?

That is what they have told shareholders is their current plan - there maybe more drilling at some point (likely) but nothing has been formally stated at this junction. So shareholders will naturally be focused right now on the likely cost of the EWT.

Everyone knows there will be raise at some point - LB has stated that at every stage.

But timing and what price? I was not around in December but they will not be repeating a placing with a 72% discount. But then they were in a very different place, little choice. Now they are in a much stronger position after drill results - which LB has stated is considered commercial. To the outside world to what extent commercial is the missing part. And how big the resource?

Theoretically if they can update the market on "Resource estimates and subsurface modelling being progressed" before EWT, then if good news that will have a material effect on the share price. Then maybe raise into that.

No one knows exactly how much cash they have presently except that Chairman said on 7/3/2024, so after completing the last drill and then raising £4.7M (plus what whatever left over from the £6.1M raised in December):

"The company led placing provides Helium One with sufficient working capital to progress its planning for the next stage of the work programme in Tanzania."

The company continues to de-risk, that is the key positive at this stage. Closer to commercialisation.

LB was at pains to point out there is a lot of other background things going on atm - certainly I would not expect the company to be waiting to July for an update. Industry will be watching maybe conversing.

Joe is saying 1p raise - obviously pure speculation. My speculative prediction is a raise - that is expected at some point - sure but not soon and based on positive news flow. Element of surprise could easily catch many out. Premium placings, the market likes.

Happy to sit it out.

Joe or anyone with experience:

"Resource estimates and subsurface modelling being progressed"

Is the above likely to be the next update before and if so well before EWT?

Flow testing: but presumably LB knows though - otherwise how could say minimum?

"Drill stem test ("DST") results carried out on the Itumbula West-1 well calculate a minimum flow rate of 0.5 million cubic feet per day ("mmscfd") containing 4.7% helium"

"With the Rukwa Basin's risk significantly de-risked through these efforts, the company's stock is undervalued, especially considering the high helium concentration which surpasses global averages for helium prospects."

.....so at 5.3p and with 3.72B shares in issue, they are suggesting a market cap circa £200M.....for starters. (Against market cap of £55M today).

As the company broker I guess they would have better knowledge than most, LB will be aware of their note before publishing.

Yep, guessing next news will be an update on current desktop analysis:

“Resource estimates and subsurface modelling being progressed”.

That news in itself could be very big - big enough to get a placing away at much higher so than currently. Fingers crossed.

Helium One in USA trades on OTC - Over The Counter.

This link explains how it works- effectively a secondary market:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/otc.asp

There were only 69,000 shares traded yesterday, probably one transaction. Of no real consequence to U.K.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLOGF/

HLOGF US - it’s a matched bargained set up - ie need a buyer to match a seller. Little activity today - it looks like less than 70,000 shares traded so far.

RNS 7/3/24: "The Company is currently advancing its subsurface modelling and updating its internal resource estimates in order to determine the best path towards the commercialisation of Itumbula."

No idea how long this will take HE1 to establish but LB seems confident of commercialisation : )

Yep, LB, "I told you so":

"We are delighted with the findings from Itumbula West-1 and the results from the down hole well testing have clearly confirmed the presence of a producing helium province in the Rukwa Rift Basin. The learnings from the Tai-3 well provided invaluable additional subsurface information and how the helium system works. By applying these findings, we adjusted our well location at Itumbula, and this has certainly yielded the results we were hoping for and justified that decision."

While we wait was looking at the RNS 5/12/23 - very interesting comment - their distance interpretation demonstrates the sheer potential size - helium shows 3km away from the source.

"Itumbula prospect: revised well location and drilling programme

Following the positive drilling results from the Tai-3 well, and the increase in concentration of helium encountered in the fault and fractures close to Basement, the Company has subsequently reviewed the geology of the Itumbula prospect. It is bounded by a large, deep seated western fault which extends into the Basement source rock. It is this fault that is interpreted to be associated with the active surface helium seep 3km away.

With the results from Tai-1/-1A and Tai-3 suggesting that it is the migration of fluids that play a crucial role in liberating the helium out of the Basement source and along fractures and faults, the Company has now elected to target the western bounding fault at Itumbula as a primary target. Therefore, the Itumbula well has been designed to directly target this new fault play where the Company anticipates helium concentrations to be significantly elevated."

Presumably none of the directors could participate in the 1.5p immediate placing because they were insiders, so closed for them. Not all of the information about the Itumbula drill has been made public.

“What are the analyst and broker recommendations for Helium One Global?

The overall consensus recommendation for Helium One Global is Strong Buy. You can view the full broker recommendation list by unlocking its StockReport.”

https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/helium-one-global-LON:HE1/#

Maybe, who knows? No one.

We need a further update first.

I'm not even sure "follow the money" is relevant here atm; HE1 is a traders paradise right now. Small spread - big volume makes it worthwhile. Not my scene though.

I also think we won't be waiting for Q3 to hear more. Hopefully that will catch out many.

Be good to hear an update on their current desktop work - from last RNS below: this should change the picture, hopefully materially to the upside.

"Resource estimates and subsurface modelling being progressed"

Qualative and informative post, many thanks. Skittish.

Https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/smallcap-round-up-dekel-agri-v-helium-one-ht-group

Just need to look at the 30/6/2023 accounts: Note 9:

"The tax rate used is a weighted average of the standard rate of corporation tax in the UK being 19% and Tanzania being 30%. No deferred tax asset has been recognised in view of the uncertainty over the timing of future taxable profits against which the losses may be offset.

The Company has unused tax losses of approximately $5,698,850 (2022: $5,122,914) to carry forward and set against future profits. "

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So they will not pay any corporation tax until they have used up $5.7M (at least) in brought forward losses. A nice buffer.